Football · Norway Division 2 Group 1 · 30/08, 19:00

Prediction: Jerv vs Pors Grenland

Team pages: Jerv · Pors Grenland

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.02Total

Jerv2.06

Pors Grenland0.96

1X2

62% 21% 16%

Jerv Draw Pors Grenland

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Jerv 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WWDWWWLLWD

Pors Grenland 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

LDWDWLWDLD

Head-to-head

Jerv 4–2–0 Pors Grenland (6 last)

Pors Grenland0-3Jerv
Pors Grenland2-2Jerv
Jerv1-1Pors Grenland
Pors Grenland2-4Jerv
Jerv4-0Pors Grenland
Pors Grenland0-1Jerv

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Jerv 1570 · Pors Grenland 1504

	Jerv	Draw	Pors Grenland
Our model	62%	22%	16%
Market	63%	20%	17%

Estimated total (ours) 3.02 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Jerv (rating 1570 vs 1504).
H2H favours Jerv: 4-2-0.
High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Jerv	Pors Grenland
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.2	1.4 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.9	0.3 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	0/50/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.3 / 6.8	1.8 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.1	2.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.42

X4.50

25.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.90

2 (+1.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.95

Under 3.251.85

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 18:49

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.33 → 1.42▲	Bet365 1.42
X	4.75 → 4.50▼	Pinn 4.64
2	6.25 → 5.25▼	Pinn 6.01 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.7% Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
13:19 +11’	1.33	4.75	6.25
18:46 +3’	1.42▲	4.50▼	5.25▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
13:29	1.32	4.89	6.70
15:34 +2’	1.41▲	4.64▼	6.01▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 3.25

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Jerv 4–2–0 Pors Grenland

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 Norway Division 2 Group 1	Pors Grenland	0-3 HT 0-1	Jerv
28/09/25 Norway Division 2 Group 1	Pors Grenland	2-2 HT 0-2	Jerv
29/03/25 Norway Division 2 Group 1	Jerv	1-1 HT 0-1	Pors Grenland
22/04/15 Norway Cup	Pors Grenland	2-4 HT 2-2	Jerv
18/10/14 Norway Division 2 Group 1	Jerv	4-0 HT 2-0	Pors Grenland
19/07/14 Norway Division 2 Group 1	Pors Grenland	0-1 HT 0-0	Jerv

Standings · Norway Division 2 Group 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Jerv	16	11	3	2	34	17	36
2	Brattvåg	16	10	2	4	32	16	32
3	Mjondalen	16	10	2	4	30	20	32
4	Kvik Halden FK	16	9	3	4	28	19	30
5	Sotra	16	8	3	5	32	16	27
6	Notodden	16	8	3	5	22	14	27
7	Bjarg	16	8	2	6	27	24	26
8	Træff	16	7	4	5	29	25	25
9	Arendal	16	5	5	6	23	25	20
10	Pors Grenland	16	5	5	6	18	21	20
11	Sandviken	16	4	3	9	23	35	15
12	Lysekloster	16	3	5	8	18	32	14
13	Vidar	16	1	3	12	14	44	6
14	Eik Tønsberg	16	1	1	14	17	39	4

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Jerv	Pors Grenland
Vidar	4-0 W	1-1 D
Træff	2-3 L	3-3 D
Brattvåg	2-1 W	1-1 D
Notodden	0-0 D	1-2 L
Arendal	2-1 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 1 L	0 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Jerv (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Jerv

WWDWWWLLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Sandviken Norway Division 2 Group 1	0-1	2-2	7	1	D
08/08	Vidar Norway Division 2 Group 1	1-0	4-0	8	5	W
02/08	Træff Norway Division 2 Group 1	2-2	2-3	6	4	L
26/07	Lysekloster Norway Division 2 Group 1	1-1	1-2	12	2	L
28/06	Sotra Norway Division 2 Group 1	1-1	3-1	3	7	W
21/06	Brattvåg Norway Division 2 Group 1	0-1	2-1	8	3	W
14/06	Sandviken Norway Division 2 Group 1	1-1	2-1	9	0	W
31/05	Notodden Norway Division 2 Group 1	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
23/05	Kvik Halden FK Norway Division 2 Group 1	2-1	2-1	6	4	W
16/05	Arendal Norway Division 2 Group 1	0-1	2-1	7	4	W

Pors Grenland

LDWDWLWDLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Bjarg Norway Division 2 Group 1	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
08/08	Arendal Norway Division 2 Group 1	0-1	1-2	6	3	L
01/08	Brattvåg Norway Division 2 Group 1	1-1	1-1	4	2	D
25/07	Bjarg Norway Division 2 Group 1	0-0	1-0	1	6	W
27/06	Arendal Norway Division 2 Group 1	1-1	2-4	1	4	L
20/06	Eik Tønsberg Norway Division 2 Group 1	0-0	2-0	5	2	W
13/06	Vidar Norway Division 2 Group 1	0-1	1-1	7	3	D
31/05	Mjondalen Norway Division 2 Group 1	0-0	1-0	6	3	W
24/05	Træff Norway Division 2 Group 1	1-2	3-3	1	2	D
16/05	Notodden Norway Division 2 Group 1	0-2	1-2	2	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Jerv vs Pors Grenland?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Jerv win (62%). Probabilities: Jerv 62%, draw 21%, Pors Grenland 16%.

How many goals are expected in Jerv vs Pors Grenland?

The model expects 3.02 goals (Jerv 2.06 · Pors Grenland 0.96), with a 55% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Jerv vs Pors Grenland?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.