Football · Norway Division 2 Group 1 · 05/09, 15:00

Prediction: Mjondalen vs Jerv

Team pages: Mjondalen · Jerv

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.82Total

Mjondalen1.34

Jerv1.48

1X2

34% 26% 40%

Mjondalen Draw Jerv

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Mjondalen 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WLDWWWLWWL

Jerv 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WDWWWLLWDW

Head-to-head

Mjondalen 3–2–1 Jerv (6 last)

Jerv1-0Mjondalen
Jerv1-3Mjondalen
Mjondalen2-1Jerv
Mjondalen2-2Jerv
Jerv2-3Mjondalen
Mjondalen1-1Jerv

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Mjondalen 1518 · Jerv 1565

	Mjondalen	Draw	Jerv
Our model	33%	27%	40%
Market	34%	25%	41%

Estimated total (ours) 2.82 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Jerv (rating 1518 vs 1565).
H2H favours Mjondalen: 3-2-1.
High corners: 11.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Mjondalen	Jerv
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.1	1.9 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.3	0.8 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.6	3.6 / 7.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0	3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.63

X3.50

22.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.77

2 (-0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 31.85

Under 31.95

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 15:58

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.60 → 2.63▲	Bet365 2.63
X	3.60 → 3.50▼	Pinn 3.78
2	2.20 → 2.20	Pinn 2.40 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.1% Pinnacle margin 9.1%

Time*	1	X	2
13:47 +9’	2.60	3.60	2.20
15:43 +14’	2.63▲	3.50▼	2.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
15:57 +1’	2.44	3.78	2.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Mjondalen 3–2–1 Jerv

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/04/26 Norway Division 2 Group 1	Jerv	1-0 HT 1-0	Mjondalen
30/11/24 Norway Division 1 Play-Offs	Jerv	1-3 HT 0-1	Mjondalen
24/11/24 Norway Division 1 Play-Offs	Mjondalen	2-1 HT 0-1	Jerv
23/08/23 Norway Division 1	Mjondalen	2-2 HT 1-2	Jerv
03/05/23 Norway Division 1	Jerv	2-3 HT 0-1	Mjondalen
21/10/18 Norway Division 1	Mjondalen	1-1 HT 0-1	Jerv

Standings · Norway Division 2 Group 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Jerv	17	12	3	2	35	17	39
2	Brattvåg	17	10	3	4	36	20	33
3	Mjondalen	17	10	2	5	30	21	32
4	Kvik Halden FK	17	9	4	4	28	19	31
5	Sotra	17	9	3	5	35	17	30
6	Bjarg	17	9	2	6	28	24	29
7	Notodden	17	8	4	5	22	14	28
8	Træff	17	7	5	5	31	27	26
9	Arendal	17	6	5	6	25	26	23
10	Pors Grenland	17	5	5	7	18	22	20
11	Sandviken	17	4	4	9	27	39	16
12	Lysekloster	17	3	5	9	19	34	14
13	Vidar	17	1	4	12	16	46	7
14	Eik Tønsberg	17	1	1	15	18	42	4

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Mjondalen	Jerv
Kvik Halden FK	1-0 W	2-1 W
Notodden	0-1 L	0-0 D
Brattvåg	5-3 W	2-1 W
Pors Grenland	0-1 L	1-0 W
Sandviken	4-0 W	2-2 D
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 2 L	3 W 2 D 0 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Mjondalen

WLDWWWLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Bjarg Norway Division 2 Group 1	0-1	0-1	4	3	L
15/08	Eik Tønsberg Norway Division 2 Group 1	1-1	2-1	10	1	W
08/08	Kvik Halden FK Norway Division 2 Group 1	1-0	1-0	2	1	W
01/08	Notodden Norway Division 2 Group 1	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
25/07	Brattvåg Norway Division 2 Group 1	2-0	5-3	–	–	W
27/06	Bjarg Norway Division 2 Group 1	1-0	1-0	3	2	W
20/06	Notodden Norway Division 2 Group 1	0-0	2-1	6	5	W
13/06	Kvik Halden FK Norway Division 2 Group 1	2-1	3-3	5	4	D
31/05	Pors Grenland Norway Division 2 Group 1	0-0	0-1	2	3	L
23/05	Sandviken Norway Division 2 Group 1	2-0	4-0	6	2	W

Jerv

WDWWWLLWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Pors Grenland Norway Division 2 Group 1	0-0	1-0	10	2	W
16/08	Sandviken Norway Division 2 Group 1	0-1	2-2	7	1	D
08/08	Vidar Norway Division 2 Group 1	1-0	4-0	8	5	W
02/08	Træff Norway Division 2 Group 1	2-2	2-3	6	4	L
26/07	Lysekloster Norway Division 2 Group 1	1-1	1-2	12	2	L
28/06	Sotra Norway Division 2 Group 1	1-1	3-1	3	7	W
21/06	Brattvåg Norway Division 2 Group 1	0-1	2-1	8	3	W
14/06	Sandviken Norway Division 2 Group 1	1-1	2-1	9	0	W
31/05	Notodden Norway Division 2 Group 1	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
23/05	Kvik Halden FK Norway Division 2 Group 1	2-1	2-1	6	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Mjondalen vs Jerv?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Jerv win (40%). Probabilities: Mjondalen 34%, draw 26%, Jerv 40%.

How many goals are expected in Mjondalen vs Jerv?

The model expects 2.82 goals (Mjondalen 1.34 · Jerv 1.48), with a 54% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Mjondalen vs Jerv?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.