Football · Norway Division 2 Group 1 · 30/08, 16:00

Prediction: Arendal vs Lysekloster

Team pages: Arendal · Lysekloster

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.3Total

Arendal2.36

Lysekloster0.94

1X2

68% 19% 13%

Arendal Draw Lysekloster

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

2-0 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Arendal 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

LDDDWWWLWW

Lysekloster 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LDLLWDWLLL

Head-to-head

Arendal 1–1–3 Lysekloster (5 last)

Lysekloster1-1Arendal
Arendal3-2Lysekloster
Lysekloster2-1Arendal
Arendal1-3Lysekloster
Lysekloster2-1Arendal

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Arendal 1542 · Lysekloster 1433

	Arendal	Draw	Lysekloster
Our model	68%	19%	13%
Market	69%	18%	13%

Estimated total (ours) 3.3 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Arendal (rating 1542 vs 1433).
H2H favours Lysekloster: 3-1-1.
High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Arendal	Lysekloster
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.2	0.8 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.8	0.4 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.9 / 5.9	2.7 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.1	3.3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.33

X5.00

27.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.88

2 (+1.5)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 3.52.00

Under 3.51.80

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:32

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.33 → 1.33	Bet365 1.33
X	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00
2	7.00 → 7.00	Bet365 7.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.3%

Time*	1	X	2
16:17 +15’	1.33	5.00	7.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Arendal 1–1–3 Lysekloster

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/05/26 Norway Division 2 Group 1	Lysekloster	1-1 HT 1-0	Arendal
12/10/25 Norway Division 2 Group 1	Arendal	3-2 HT 1-0	Lysekloster
15/06/25 Norway Division 2 Group 1	Lysekloster	2-1 HT 1-0	Arendal
11/08/24 Norway Division 2 Group 1	Arendal	1-3 HT 0-1	Lysekloster
20/04/24 Norway Division 2 Group 1	Lysekloster	2-1 HT 1-0	Arendal

Standings · Norway Division 2 Group 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Jerv	16	11	3	2	34	17	36
2	Brattvåg	16	10	2	4	32	16	32
3	Mjondalen	16	10	2	4	30	20	32
4	Kvik Halden FK	16	9	3	4	28	19	30
5	Sotra	16	8	3	5	32	16	27
6	Notodden	16	8	3	5	22	14	27
7	Bjarg	16	8	2	6	27	24	26
8	Træff	16	7	4	5	29	25	25
9	Arendal	16	5	5	6	23	25	20
10	Pors Grenland	16	5	5	6	18	21	20
11	Sandviken	16	4	3	9	23	35	15
12	Lysekloster	16	3	5	8	18	32	14
13	Vidar	16	1	3	12	14	44	6
14	Eik Tønsberg	16	1	1	14	17	39	4

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Arendal	Lysekloster
Træff	3-1 W	0-4 L
Jerv	1-2 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Arendal

LDDDWWWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Vidar Norway Division 2 Group 1	1-1	3-1	8	2	W
08/08	Pors Grenland Norway Division 2 Group 1	1-0	2-1	1	3	W
02/08	Sotra Norway Division 2 Group 1	0-3	0-3	4	3	L
25/07	Vidar Norway Division 2 Group 1	0-0	4-0	10	2	W
27/06	Pors Grenland Norway Division 2 Group 1	1-1	4-2	11	4	W
21/06	Træff Norway Division 2 Group 1	1-1	3-1	7	4	W
13/06	Eik Tønsberg Norway Division 2 Group 1	0-0	0-0	6	4	D
31/05	Sotra Norway Division 2 Group 1	1-1	1-1	1	2	D
25/05	Lysekloster Norway Division 2 Group 1	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
16/05	Jerv Norway Division 2 Group 1	1-0	1-2	5	4	L

Lysekloster

LDLLWDWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Kvik Halden FK Norway Division 2 Group 1	0-0	0-1	6	4	L
09/08	Brattvåg Norway Division 2 Group 1	1-0	1-3	–	–	L
01/08	Bjarg Norway Division 2 Group 1	0-2	0-3	–	–	L
26/07	Jerv Norway Division 2 Group 1	1-1	2-1	8	2	W
27/06	Brattvåg Norway Division 2 Group 1	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
20/06	Sandviken Norway Division 2 Group 1	1-2	3-2	4	7	W
14/06	Notodden Norway Division 2 Group 1	0-1	0-2	2	2	L
31/05	Kvik Halden FK Norway Division 2 Group 1	0-2	0-4	5	1	L
25/05	Arendal Norway Division 2 Group 1	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
14/05	Træff Norway Division 2 Group 1	0-2	0-4	4	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Arendal vs Lysekloster?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Arendal win (68%). Probabilities: Arendal 68%, draw 19%, Lysekloster 13%.

How many goals are expected in Arendal vs Lysekloster?

The model expects 3.3 goals (Arendal 2.36 · Lysekloster 0.94), with a 55% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Arendal vs Lysekloster?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.