Football · Georgia First League · 07/11, 11:30

Prediction: FC Gareji vs Merani Martvili

Team pages: FC Gareji · Merani Martvili

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.69Total

FC Gareji1.37

Merani Martvili1.32

1X2

37% 28% 35%

FC Gareji Draw Merani Martvili

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

FC Gareji 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WWDLWLLWDL

Merani Martvili 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

LLLWWLLWLW

Head-to-head

FC Gareji 5–1 Merani Martvili (6 last)

Merani Martvili1-2FC Gareji
FC Gareji1-0Merani Martvili
Merani Martvili1-0FC Gareji
FC Gareji6-1Merani Martvili
Merani Martvili1-4FC Gareji
FC Gareji5-1Merani Martvili

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC Gareji 1496 · Merani Martvili 1482

	FC Gareji	Draw	Merani Martvili
Our model	37%	28%	35%
Market	37%	28%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 2.69 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours FC Gareji: 5-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 9.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Gareji	Merani Martvili
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.9	1.2 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.7	0.4 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.1 / 2.5	2.5 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.8 / 0.3	4.7 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

12.40

X3.25

22.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.82

2 (0)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.95

Under 2.51.85

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.40 → 2.40	Bet365 2.40
X	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
2	2.55 → 2.55	Bet365 2.55

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
12:13 +6’	2.40	3.25	2.55

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Gareji 5–0–1 Merani Martvili

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/08/26 Georgia First League	Merani Martvili	1-2 HT 0-1	FC Gareji
20/05/26 Georgia First League	FC Gareji	1-0 HT 0-0	Merani Martvili
03/04/26 Georgia First League	Merani Martvili	1-0 HT 1-0	FC Gareji
27/10/23 Georgia First League	FC Gareji	6-1 HT 3-0	Merani Martvili
18/08/23 Georgia First League	Merani Martvili	1-4 HT 0-2	FC Gareji
15/05/23 Georgia First League	FC Gareji	5-1 HT 5-0	Merani Martvili

Standings · Georgia First League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Gareji	31	15	9	7	37	33	54
2	SFC Shturmi	31	13	10	8	34	30	49
3	FC Telavi	31	12	11	8	35	31	47
4	Merani Martvili	31	12	7	12	36	40	43
5	FC Samtredia	31	13	4	14	55	43	43
6	Aragvi Dusheti	31	11	7	13	32	41	40
7	Odishi 1919 Zugdidi	31	10	9	12	33	41	39
8	FC Sioni Bolnisi	31	9	10	12	36	38	37
9	Kolkheti Poti	31	8	11	12	42	36	35
10	FC Gori	31	8	10	13	30	37	34

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Gareji	Merani Martvili
Kolkheti Poti	0-3 L	0-2 L
Aragvi Dusheti	0-0 D	3-1 W
FC Telavi	2-1 W	2-0 W
Odishi 1919 Zugdidi	0-1 L	0-3 L
SFC Shturmi	0-1 L	3-1 W
FC Gori	2-1 W	1-2 L
FC Samtredia	1-6 L	0-5 L
FC Sioni Bolnisi	3-3 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 4 L	4 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Merani Martvili (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC Gareji

WWDLWLLWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Kolkheti Poti Georgia First League	0-1	0-3	–	–	L
24/10	Aragvi Dusheti Georgia First League	0-0	0-0	4	6	D
17/10	FC Telavi Georgia First League	1-0	2-1	2	4	W
10/10	Odishi 1919 Zugdidi Georgia First League	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
20/09	SFC Shturmi Georgia First League	0-0	0-1	6	7	L
16/09	FC Gori Georgia First League	0-1	2-1	1	2	W
12/09	FC Samtredia Georgia First League	1-3	1-6	2	5	L
06/09	FC Sioni Bolnisi Georgia First League	1-1	3-3	3	6	D
29/08	Merani Martvili Georgia First League	1-0	2-1	0	5	W
22/08	Kolkheti Poti Georgia First League	1-1	3-2	2	5	W

Merani Martvili

LLLWWLLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	FC Telavi Georgia First League	0-0	2-0	8	10	W
24/10	Odishi 1919 Zugdidi Georgia First League	0-1	0-3	–	–	L
17/10	SFC Shturmi Georgia First League	1-1	3-1	–	–	W
10/10	FC Gori Georgia First League	0-2	1-2	–	–	L
20/09	FC Samtredia Georgia First League	0-5	0-5	–	–	L
16/09	FC Sioni Bolnisi Georgia First League	1-0	2-1	2	5	W
12/09	Aragvi Dusheti Georgia First League	2-0	3-1	6	2	W
06/09	Kolkheti Poti Georgia First League	0-1	0-2	1	3	L
29/08	FC Gareji Georgia First League	0-1	1-2	9	5	L
22/08	FC Telavi Georgia First League	0-0	0-1	6	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Gareji vs Merani Martvili?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Gareji win (37%). Probabilities: FC Gareji 37%, draw 28%, Merani Martvili 35%.

How many goals are expected in FC Gareji vs Merani Martvili?

The model expects 2.69 goals (FC Gareji 1.37 · Merani Martvili 1.32), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Gareji vs Merani Martvili?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.