Football · Georgia First League · 07/11, 11:30

Prediction: Aragvi Dusheti vs Kolkheti Poti

Team pages: Aragvi Dusheti · Kolkheti Poti

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.4Total

Aragvi Dusheti1.21

Kolkheti Poti1.19

1X2

36% 29% 35%

Aragvi Dusheti Draw Kolkheti Poti

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Aragvi Dusheti 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WDLLLWLWDD

Kolkheti Poti 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

LDWDWDLWDW

Head-to-head

Aragvi Dusheti 1–4–1 Kolkheti Poti (6 last)

Kolkheti Poti1-1Aragvi Dusheti
Kolkheti Poti0-0Aragvi Dusheti
Aragvi Dusheti2-1Kolkheti Poti
Kolkheti Poti3-1Aragvi Dusheti
Kolkheti Poti0-0Aragvi Dusheti
Aragvi Dusheti2-2Kolkheti Poti

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Aragvi Dusheti 1485 · Kolkheti Poti 1532

	Aragvi Dusheti	Draw	Kolkheti Poti
Our model	35%	30%	34%
Market	37%	27%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 2.4 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Kolkheti Poti (rating 1485 vs 1532).
Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Aragvi Dusheti	Kolkheti Poti
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.4	1.6 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.7	0.8 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 4.1	1.2 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0.2	4.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.45

X3.30

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.88

2 (0)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.80

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:28

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.45 → 2.45	Bet365 2.45
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
14:03 +25’	2.45	3.30	2.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Aragvi Dusheti 1–4–1 Kolkheti Poti

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/08/26 Georgia First League	Kolkheti Poti	1-1 HT 0-0	Aragvi Dusheti
25/07/26 Georgia Cup	Kolkheti Poti	0-0 HT 0-0	Aragvi Dusheti
20/05/26 Georgia First League	Aragvi Dusheti	2-1 HT 0-1	Kolkheti Poti
03/04/26 Georgia First League	Kolkheti Poti	3-1 HT 1-0	Aragvi Dusheti
15/09/22 Georgia Liga 3	Kolkheti Poti	0-0 HT 0-0	Aragvi Dusheti
04/05/22 Georgia Liga 3	Aragvi Dusheti	2-2 HT 1-2	Kolkheti Poti

Standings · Georgia First League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Gareji	31	15	9	7	37	33	54
2	SFC Shturmi	31	13	10	8	34	30	49
3	FC Telavi	31	12	11	8	35	31	47
4	Merani Martvili	31	12	7	12	36	40	43
5	FC Samtredia	31	13	4	14	55	43	43
6	Aragvi Dusheti	31	11	7	13	32	41	40
7	Odishi 1919 Zugdidi	31	10	9	12	33	41	39
8	FC Sioni Bolnisi	31	9	10	12	36	38	37
9	Kolkheti Poti	31	8	11	12	42	36	35
10	FC Gori	31	8	10	13	30	37	34

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Aragvi Dusheti	Kolkheti Poti
FC Gori	0-0 D	1-1 D
FC Gareji	0-0 D	3-0 W
FC Samtredia	1-0 W	1-0 W
FC Telavi	1-4 L	1-1 D
FC Sioni Bolnisi	2-1 W	1-1 D
Odishi 1919 Zugdidi	0-1 L	4-0 W
Merani Martvili	1-3 L	2-0 W
SFC Shturmi	3-4 L	0-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 4 L	4 W 3 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Kolkheti Poti (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Aragvi Dusheti

WDLLLWLWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	FC Gori Georgia First League	0-0	0-0	2	1	D
24/10	FC Gareji Georgia First League	0-0	0-0	6	6	D
17/10	FC Samtredia Georgia First League	0-0	1-0	2	3	W
10/10	FC Telavi Georgia First League	0-3	1-4	6	2	L
20/09	FC Sioni Bolnisi Georgia First League	1-0	2-1	4	4	W
16/09	Odishi 1919 Zugdidi Georgia First League	0-0	0-1	4	7	L
12/09	Merani Martvili Georgia First League	0-2	1-3	8	2	L
06/09	SFC Shturmi Georgia First League	0-2	3-4	3	4	L
30/08	Kolkheti Poti Georgia First League	0-0	1-1	1	2	D
22/08	FC Gori Georgia First League	1-0	1-0	5	2	W

Kolkheti Poti

LDWDWDLWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	FC Gareji Georgia First League	1-0	3-0	–	–	W
24/10	FC Telavi Georgia First League	1-0	1-1	4	8	D
17/10	Odishi 1919 Zugdidi Georgia First League	2-0	4-0	3	4	W
10/10	SFC Shturmi Georgia First League	0-1	0-2	4	4	L
20/09	FC Gori Georgia First League	1-1	1-1	2	6	D
16/09	FC Samtredia Georgia First League	1-0	1-0	1	4	W
12/09	FC Sioni Bolnisi Georgia First League	0-0	1-1	9	2	D
06/09	Merani Martvili Georgia First League	1-0	2-0	4	3	W
30/08	Aragvi Dusheti Georgia First League	0-0	1-1	2	2	D
22/08	FC Gareji Georgia First League	1-1	2-3	7	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Aragvi Dusheti vs Kolkheti Poti?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Aragvi Dusheti win (36%). Probabilities: Aragvi Dusheti 36%, draw 29%, Kolkheti Poti 35%.

How many goals are expected in Aragvi Dusheti vs Kolkheti Poti?

The model expects 2.4 goals (Aragvi Dusheti 1.21 · Kolkheti Poti 1.19), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Aragvi Dusheti vs Kolkheti Poti?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.