Football · Norway Division 3 Group 6 · 19/09, 15:00

Prediction: Elverum vs Rælingen

Team pages: Elverum · Rælingen

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.3Total

Elverum2.93

Rælingen1.37

1X2

69% 16% 15%

Elverum Draw Rælingen

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

2-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Elverum 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

WWDWWWWWDL

Rælingen 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWLLWDWWLD

Head-to-head

Elverum 0–1 Rælingen (1 last)

Rælingen3-2Elverum

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Elverum 1542 · Rælingen 1507

	Elverum	Draw	Rælingen
Our model	69%	17%	15%
Market	69%	16%	15%

Estimated total (ours) 4.3 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 84%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 11.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Elverum	Rælingen
Goals for / against (FT)	2.7 / 1.5	1.8 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	1.7 / 0.9	0.6 / 1.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	70/20/10%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	4 / 7	1.9 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2 / 0	3.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.30

X5.50

26.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.75)1.95

2 (+1.75)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.82

Under 3.751.98

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 4.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 22:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.30 → 1.30	Bet365 1.30
X	5.50 → 5.50	Bet365 5.50
2	6.00 → 6.00	Bet365 6.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
22:07 +5’	1.30	5.50	6.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Elverum 0–0–1 Rælingen

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/04/26 Norway Division 3 Group 6	Rælingen	3-2 HT 0-2	Elverum

Standings · Norway Division 3 Group 6

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Lillehammer	19	14	2	3	67	28	44
2	Rade IL	19	12	2	5	68	34	38
3	Elverum	19	12	2	5	49	31	38
4	Gjøvik-Lyn	19	11	2	6	27	14	35
5	Ørn Horten	19	8	5	6	36	31	29
6	Lyn 1896 II	19	9	2	8	45	44	29
7	Rælingen	19	8	4	7	37	45	28
8	Oppsal	19	8	3	8	33	30	27
9	Drøbak/Frogn	19	7	5	7	37	28	26
10	Sandefjord 2	19	8	2	9	47	41	26
11	Sarpsborg 2	19	7	3	9	44	45	24
12	Fram	19	6	3	10	35	43	21
13	Brumunddal	19	3	3	13	23	80	12
14	Bjørkelangen	19	1	0	18	15	69	3

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Elverum	Rælingen
Rade IL	2-4 L	1-1 D
Brumunddal	1-1 D	4-2 W
Lillehammer	4-3 W	0-3 L
Oppsal	4-0 W	1-0 W
Ørn Horten	1-0 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 1 L	3 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Rælingen (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Elverum

WWDWWWWWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Rade IL Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-1	2-4	7	2	L
05/09	Brumunddal Norway Division 3 Group 6	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
30/08	Lillehammer Norway Division 3 Group 6	4-3	4-3	–	–	W
15/08	Oppsal Norway Division 3 Group 6	3-0	4-0	–	–	W
08/08	Ørn Horten Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
01/08	Fram Norway Division 3 Group 6	1-0	3-1	–	–	W
25/07	Sandefjord 2 Norway Division 3 Group 6	3-3	5-3	–	–	W
27/06	Lillehammer Norway Division 3 Group 6	2-1	2-2	–	–	D
20/06	Oppsal Norway Division 3 Group 6	2-1	2-1	–	–	W
13/06	Ørn Horten Norway Division 3 Group 6	1-0	3-0	–	–	W

Rælingen

LWLLWDWWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Drøbak/Frogn Norway Division 3 Group 6	1-1	2-2	8	6	D
05/09	Lillehammer Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-3	0-3	–	–	L
30/08	Oppsal Norway Division 3 Group 6	1-0	1-0	1	5	W
15/08	Brumunddal Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-1	4-2	–	–	W
09/08	Rade IL Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-0	1-1	7	5	D
01/08	Ørn Horten Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-0	2-0	2	7	W
25/07	Lillehammer Norway Division 3 Group 6	1-2	2-4	1	3	L
27/06	Oppsal Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-1	1-3	5	2	L
20/06	Bjørkelangen Norway Division 3 Group 6	2-1	3-1	9	2	W
13/06	Rade IL Norway Division 3 Group 6	1-5	2-7	1	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Elverum vs Rælingen?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Elverum win (69%). Probabilities: Elverum 69%, draw 16%, Rælingen 15%.

How many goals are expected in Elverum vs Rælingen?

The model expects 4.3 goals (Elverum 2.93 · Rælingen 1.37), with a 55% chance of over 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Elverum vs Rælingen?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.