Football · Norway Division 3 Group 6 · 28/09, 18:00

Prediction: Rælingen vs Lyn 1896 II

Team pages: Rælingen · Lyn 1896 II

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.57Total

Rælingen3.09

Lyn 1896 II1.48

1X2

70% 15% 16%

Rælingen Draw Lyn 1896 II

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

3-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Rælingen 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WLLWDWWLDL

Lyn 1896 II 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWDWWLWLLD

Head-to-head

Rælingen 0–1 Lyn 1896 II (1 last)

Lyn 1896 II3-1Rælingen

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Rælingen 1489 · Lyn 1896 II 1508

	Rælingen	Draw	Lyn 1896 II
Our model	69%	16%	15%
Market	70%	14%	16%

Estimated total (ours) 4.57 goals · Bet365 line 4.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 81%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Rælingen	Lyn 1896 II
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 2	3.1 / 2.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1	1.1 / 1.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.1	1.3 / 2.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.1	3.5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.27

X6.50

25.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2)1.85

2 (+2)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 4.51.90

Under 4.51.90

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 4.85

Market movement

Match winner · 10 moves · last 17:02

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.40 → 1.27▼	Bet365 1.27
X	4.33 → 6.50▲	Bet365 6.50
2	2.10 → 5.50▲	Pinn 7.00 ★

See the full journey (10)

Bet365 margin 12.3% Pinnacle margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
13:39 +4’	2.40	4.33	2.10
04:58 +3’	2.38▼	4.33	2.15▲
06:56 +5’	2.05▼	4.33	2.50▲
08:59 +2’	1.95▼	4.33	2.63▲
10:00 +2’	1.65▼	4.75▲	3.30▲
11:59 +2’	1.57▼	5.00▲	3.60▲
13:56 +6’	1.53▼	5.25▲	3.70▲
14:59 +2’	1.48▼	5.25	3.90▲
15:59 +3’	1.50▲	5.25	3.75▼
16:56 +7’	1.27▼	6.50▲	5.50▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
06:17 +44’	2.06	3.92	2.60
08:16 +45’	1.93▼	4.00▲	2.81▲
09:32 +29’	1.66▼	4.39▲	3.38▲
10:20 +43’	1.65▼	4.42▲	3.40▲
11:51 +11’	1.50▼	4.62▲	4.00▲
12:24 +37’	1.48▼	4.36▼	4.04▲
13:49 +12’	1.49▲	4.59▲	4.11▲
14:41 +20’	1.45▼	4.62▲	4.41▲
16:01 +1’	1.43▼	4.93▲	4.57▲
17:02	1.23▼	6.18▲	7.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Rælingen 0–0–1 Lyn 1896 II

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/05/26 Norway Division 3 Group 6	Lyn 1896 II	3-1 HT 0-1	Rælingen

Standings · Norway Division 3 Group 6

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Lillehammer	21	16	2	3	79	30	50
2	Elverum	21	13	2	6	56	36	41
3	Rade IL	21	12	3	6	70	40	39
4	Gjøvik-Lyn	21	11	2	8	31	20	35
5	Oppsal	21	10	3	8	37	31	33
6	Drøbak/Frogn	21	9	5	7	46	30	32
7	Sandefjord 2	21	10	2	9	53	45	32
8	Ørn Horten	21	9	5	7	40	35	32
9	Lyn 1896 II	20	9	3	8	47	46	30
10	Sarpsborg 2	21	8	4	9	49	49	28
11	Rælingen	20	8	4	8	38	49	28
12	Fram	21	6	4	11	38	48	22
13	Brumunddal	21	3	3	15	25	84	12
14	Bjørkelangen	21	1	0	20	16	82	3

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Rælingen	Lyn 1896 II
Drøbak/Frogn	2-2 D	1-4 L
Lillehammer	0-3 L	1-4 L
Oppsal	1-0 W	2-2 D
Brumunddal	4-2 W	9-1 W
Rade IL	1-1 D	5-3 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Rælingen

WLLWDWWLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Elverum Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-1	1-4	0	2	L
12/09	Drøbak/Frogn Norway Division 3 Group 6	1-1	2-2	8	6	D
05/09	Lillehammer Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-3	0-3	–	–	L
30/08	Oppsal Norway Division 3 Group 6	1-0	1-0	1	5	W
15/08	Brumunddal Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-1	4-2	–	–	W
09/08	Rade IL Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-0	1-1	7	5	D
01/08	Ørn Horten Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-0	2-0	2	7	W
25/07	Lillehammer Norway Division 3 Group 6	1-2	2-4	1	3	L
27/06	Oppsal Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-1	1-3	5	2	L
20/06	Bjørkelangen Norway Division 3 Group 6	2-1	3-1	9	2	W

Lyn 1896 II

LWDWWLWLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/09	Sarpsborg 2 Norway Division 3 Group 6	1-1	2-2	2	4	D
12/09	Gjøvik-Lyn Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-0	0-2	–	–	L
07/09	Drøbak/Frogn Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-2	1-4	1	4	L
31/08	Sandefjord 2 Norway Division 3 Group 6	3-2	4-3	1	4	W
17/08	Lillehammer Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-3	1-4	2	2	L
10/08	Fram Norway Division 3 Group 6	2-3	4-3	3	4	W
03/08	Brumunddal Norway Division 3 Group 6	3-1	9-1	–	–	W
27/07	Oppsal Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-1	2-2	2	4	D
28/06	Rade IL Norway Division 3 Group 6	2-1	5-3	3	4	W
20/06	Lillehammer Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-3	3-5	5	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Rælingen vs Lyn 1896 II?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Rælingen win (70%). Probabilities: Rælingen 70%, draw 15%, Lyn 1896 II 16%.

How many goals are expected in Rælingen vs Lyn 1896 II?

The model expects 4.57 goals (Rælingen 3.09 · Lyn 1896 II 1.48), with a 51% chance of under 4.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Rælingen vs Lyn 1896 II?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.