Football · Norway Division 3 Group 4 · 30/08, 13:00

Prediction: Mandalskameratene vs Varhaug

Team pages: Mandalskameratene · Varhaug

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.35Total

Mandalskameratene2.5

Varhaug1.86

1X2

52% 20% 28%

Mandalskameratene Draw Varhaug

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 63%

Most likely score

2-1 7%

Recent form · 10 last

Mandalskameratene 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WDLWWDWLWW

Varhaug 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WLWLWDDLWW

Head-to-head

Mandalskameratene 0–1–0 Varhaug (1 last)

Varhaug3-3Mandalskameratene

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Mandalskameratene 1551 · Varhaug 1506

	Mandalskameratene	Draw	Varhaug
Our model	52%	20%	28%
Market	52%	20%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 4.35 goals · Bet365 line 4 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 74%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mandalskameratene (rating 1551 vs 1506).
Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Mandalskameratene	Varhaug
Goals for / against (FT)	2.5 / 2.1	2 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.9	0.8 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	56/11/33%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.3	2.6 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.2	3.7 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.75

X4.50

23.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.98

2 (+0.75)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 41.88

Under 41.93

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 4.1

Market movement

Match winner · 5 moves · last 11:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 1.75▼	Bet365 1.75
X	4.00 → 4.50▲	Bet365 4.50
2	2.50 → 3.20▲	Bet365 3.20

See the full journey (5)

Bet365 margin 10.6%

Time*	1	X	2
15:23 +8’	2.15	4.00	2.50
23:26 +8’	1.80▼	4.50▲	3.00▲
02:57 +7’	1.80	4.33▼	3.10▲
05:24 +5’	1.80	4.10▼	3.25▲
11:22 +1’	1.75▼	4.50▲	3.20▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Mandalskameratene 0–1–0 Varhaug

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/05/26 Norway Division 3 Group 4	Varhaug	3-3 HT 2-2	Mandalskameratene

Standings · Norway Division 3 Group 4

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Madla	16	9	5	2	40	24	32
2	Vindbjart	16	9	2	5	40	20	29
3	Flekkerøy	16	9	2	5	35	27	29
4	Mandalskameratene	16	8	4	4	40	30	28
5	Varhaug	16	7	5	4	30	23	26
6	Viking 2	16	7	4	5	40	22	25
7	Brodd	16	7	2	7	33	31	23
8	Haugesund 2	16	6	3	7	36	40	21
9	Stabaek 2	16	6	2	8	35	40	20
10	Staal Jørpeland	16	5	4	7	33	41	19
11	Vag FK	16	5	1	10	21	29	16
12	Odd II	16	4	4	8	26	39	16
13	Hinna	16	4	4	8	30	49	16
14	Åkra	16	4	2	10	21	45	14

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Mandalskameratene	Varhaug
Vag FK	2-1 W	0-1 L
Viking 2	0-4 L	0-3 L
Staal Jørpeland	8-3 W	4-1 W
Stabaek 2	4-8 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 2 L	2 W 0 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Mandalskameratene

WDLWWDWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Vag FK Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-1	2-1	7	5	W
08/08	Brodd Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-0	2-1	–	–	W
02/08	Viking 2 Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-2	0-4	4	3	L
25/07	Staal Jørpeland Norway Division 3 Group 4	4-2	8-3	5	4	W
27/06	Madla Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-0	2-2	5	4	D
21/06	Vag FK Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-0	2-1	–	–	W
13/06	Brodd Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-0	3-1	–	–	W
31/05	Stabaek 2 Norway Division 3 Group 4	2-4	4-8	2	2	L
23/05	Viking 2 Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
16/05	Vindbjart Norway Division 3 Group 4	2-0	2-0	3	4	W

Varhaug

WLWLWDDLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/08	Stabaek 2 Norway Division 3 Group 4	2-0	2-0	3	7	W
07/08	Åkra Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-0	2-1	9	4	W
31/07	Hinna Norway Division 3 Group 4	2-1	3-5	–	–	L
27/07	Haugesund 2 Norway Division 3 Group 4	–	2-2	–	–	D
28/06	Odd II Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-1	2-2	4	0	D
21/06	Stabaek 2 Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-0	4-1	5	6	W
12/06	Viking 2 Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-0	0-3	7	4	L
29/05	Hinna Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-0	1-0	4	3	W
25/05	Vag FK Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-1	0-1	2	4	L
14/05	Staal Jørpeland Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-1	4-1	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Mandalskameratene vs Varhaug?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Mandalskameratene win (52%). Probabilities: Mandalskameratene 52%, draw 20%, Varhaug 28%.

How many goals are expected in Mandalskameratene vs Varhaug?

The model expects 4.35 goals (Mandalskameratene 2.5 · Varhaug 1.86), with a 52% chance of over 4 goals.

Will both teams score in Mandalskameratene vs Varhaug?

The model gives a 63% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.