Football · Norway Division 3 Group 4 · 05/09, 14:00

Prediction: Varhaug vs Brodd

Team pages: Varhaug · Brodd

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.6Total

Varhaug2.06

Brodd1.54

1X2

49% 22% 29%

Varhaug Draw Brodd

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Varhaug 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LWLWDDLWWW

Brodd 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WLLDWWDLWW

Head-to-head

Varhaug 1–0 Brodd (1 last)

Brodd1-3Varhaug

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Varhaug 1521 · Brodd 1502

	Varhaug	Draw	Brodd
Our model	49%	23%	28%
Market	50%	21%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 3.6 goals · Bet365 line 3.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 13.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Varhaug	Brodd
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.5	2.2 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.3	0.8 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	56/22/22%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 4.9	4.8 / 8.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.3	3 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

11.80

X4.20

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.85

2 (+0.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.95

Under 3.751.85

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.6

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 05:38

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.60 → 1.80▲	Pinn 1.85 ★
X	4.50 → 4.20▼	Pinn 4.24
2	3.70 → 3.10▼	Bet365 3.10

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 11.6% Pinnacle margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
14:47 +63’	1.60	4.50	3.70
02:39 +3’	1.73▲	4.20▼	3.30▼
05:36 +2’	1.80▲	4.20	3.10▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
02:41 +1’	1.81	4.09	2.98
12:28 +1’	1.85▲	4.24▲	2.99▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Varhaug 1–0–0 Brodd

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/04/26 Norway Division 3 Group 4	Brodd	1-3 HT 1-1	Varhaug

Standings · Norway Division 3 Group 4

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Madla	18	11	5	2	46	24	38
2	Vindbjart	18	11	2	5	46	20	35
3	Varhaug	18	9	5	4	35	23	32
4	Flekkerøy	18	10	2	6	39	30	32
5	Mandalskameratene	18	9	4	5	42	32	31
6	Brodd	18	8	2	8	36	35	26
7	Viking 2	17	7	4	6	41	25	25
8	Stabaek 2	17	7	2	8	37	41	23
9	Haugesund 2	17	6	3	8	36	44	21
10	Vag FK	18	6	1	11	24	34	19
11	Staal Jørpeland	18	5	4	9	34	45	19
12	Hinna	18	5	4	9	33	51	19
13	Odd II	17	4	4	9	26	43	16
14	Åkra	18	4	2	12	24	52	14

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Varhaug	Brodd
Mandalskameratene	2-0 W	1-2 L
Stabaek 2	2-0 W	2-2 D
Åkra	2-1 W	4-1 W
Hinna	3-5 L	3-3 D
Haugesund 2	2-2 D	4-0 W
Odd II	2-2 D	2-1 W
Viking 2	0-3 L	3-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 2 L	4 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Brodd (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Varhaug

LWLWDDLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Mandalskameratene Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-0	2-0	–	–	W
17/08	Stabaek 2 Norway Division 3 Group 4	2-0	2-0	3	7	W
07/08	Åkra Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-0	2-1	9	4	W
31/07	Hinna Norway Division 3 Group 4	2-1	3-5	–	–	L
27/07	Haugesund 2 Norway Division 3 Group 4	–	2-2	–	–	D
28/06	Odd II Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-1	2-2	4	0	D
21/06	Stabaek 2 Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-0	4-1	5	6	W
12/06	Viking 2 Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-0	0-3	7	4	L
29/05	Hinna Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-0	1-0	4	3	W
25/05	Vag FK Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-1	0-1	2	4	L

Brodd

WLLDWWDLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/08	Viking 2 Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-1	3-1	9	2	W
15/08	Flekkerøy Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
08/08	Mandalskameratene Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-0	1-2	–	–	L
03/08	Stabaek 2 Norway Division 3 Group 4	2-1	2-2	10	6	D
26/07	Åkra Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-0	4-1	–	–	W
28/06	Haugesund 2 Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-0	4-0	2	4	W
19/06	Hinna Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-2	3-3	16	4	D
13/06	Mandalskameratene Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-0	1-3	–	–	L
31/05	Viking 2 Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-3	1-4	9	1	L
26/05	Odd II Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-1	2-1	6	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Varhaug vs Brodd?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Varhaug win (49%). Probabilities: Varhaug 49%, draw 22%, Brodd 29%.

How many goals are expected in Varhaug vs Brodd?

The model expects 3.6 goals (Varhaug 2.06 · Brodd 1.54), with a 54% chance of under 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Varhaug vs Brodd?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.