Football · Norway Division 3 Group 4 · 25/09, 19:00

Prediction: Varhaug vs Staal Jørpeland

Team pages: Varhaug · Staal Jørpeland

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.38Total

Varhaug2.72

Staal Jørpeland1.66

1X2

60% 18% 22%

Varhaug Draw Staal Jørpeland

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

2-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Varhaug 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WDDLWWWWLD

Staal Jørpeland 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LDLLWLLLWD

Head-to-head

Varhaug 1–0 Staal Jørpeland (1 last)

Staal Jørpeland1-4Varhaug

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Varhaug 1538 · Staal Jørpeland 1442

	Varhaug	Draw	Staal Jørpeland
Our model	60%	19%	22%
Market	60%	18%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 4.38 goals · Bet365 line 4 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 74%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Varhaug (rating 1538 vs 1442).
Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Varhaug	Staal Jørpeland
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 1.6	2 / 3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.6	0.6 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	20/20/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.3	1.9 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0	2.7 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.50

X5.00

24.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.98

2 (+1.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 41.85

Under 41.95

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 4.35

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 08:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.50 → 1.50	Bet365 1.50
X	4.75 → 5.00▲	Bet365 5.00
2	4.20 → 4.10▼	Pinn 4.46 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.1% Pinnacle margin 12.8%

Time*	1	X	2
11:58 +9’	1.50	4.75	4.20
08:02 +11’	1.50	5.00▲	4.10▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
07:12 +61’	1.47	4.47	4.48
14:24 +36’	1.48▲	4.42▼	4.46▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Varhaug 1–0–0 Staal Jørpeland

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/05/26 Norway Division 3 Group 4	Staal Jørpeland	1-4 HT 1-0	Varhaug

Standings · Norway Division 3 Group 4

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Madla	20	12	6	2	51	26	42
2	Mandalskameratene	20	11	4	5	46	33	37
3	Vindbjart	20	11	2	7	47	24	35
4	Varhaug	20	9	6	5	36	28	33
5	Flekkerøy	20	10	3	7	41	34	33
6	Viking 2	20	9	5	6	50	28	32
7	Brodd	20	8	3	9	39	40	27
8	Stabaek 2	20	8	3	9	42	46	27
9	Vag FK	20	7	2	11	29	36	23
10	Staal Jørpeland	20	6	5	9	39	48	23
11	Odd II	20	6	5	9	36	45	23
12	Haugesund 2	20	6	4	10	37	55	22
13	Hinna	20	5	5	10	36	57	20
14	Åkra	20	4	3	13	27	56	15

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Varhaug	Staal Jørpeland
Viking 2	0-4 L	2-2 D
Brodd	3-0 W	3-1 W
Mandalskameratene	2-0 W	0-2 L
Stabaek 2	2-0 W	1-2 L
Åkra	2-1 W	3-4 L
Hinna	3-5 L	1-1 D
Haugesund 2	2-2 D	3-4 L
Odd II	2-2 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	4 W 2 D 2 L	2 W 2 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Varhaug (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Varhaug

WDDLWWWWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Flekkerøy Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-1	1-1	–	–	D
14/09	Viking 2 Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-2	0-4	1	5	L
05/09	Brodd Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-0	3-0	4	3	W
30/08	Mandalskameratene Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-0	2-0	–	–	W
17/08	Stabaek 2 Norway Division 3 Group 4	2-0	2-0	3	7	W
07/08	Åkra Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-0	2-1	9	4	W
31/07	Hinna Norway Division 3 Group 4	2-1	3-5	–	–	L
27/07	Haugesund 2 Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-1	2-2	–	–	D
28/06	Odd II Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-1	2-2	4	0	D
21/06	Stabaek 2 Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-0	4-1	5	6	W

Staal Jørpeland

LDLLWLLLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/09	Viking 2 Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-1	2-2	–	–	D
12/09	Brodd Norway Division 3 Group 4	2-1	3-1	5	6	W
05/09	Mandalskameratene Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
30/08	Stabaek 2 Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-0	1-2	7	2	L
17/08	Haugesund 2 Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-1	3-4	2	2	L
08/08	Odd II Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-0	2-1	4	2	W
01/08	Åkra Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-1	3-4	–	–	L
25/07	Mandalskameratene Norway Division 3 Group 4	2-4	3-8	5	4	L
25/06	Hinna Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-1	1-1	3	3	D
21/06	Viking 2 Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-1	2-5	5	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Varhaug vs Staal Jørpeland?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Varhaug win (60%). Probabilities: Varhaug 60%, draw 18%, Staal Jørpeland 22%.

How many goals are expected in Varhaug vs Staal Jørpeland?

The model expects 4.38 goals (Varhaug 2.72 · Staal Jørpeland 1.66), with a 53% chance of over 4 goals.

Will both teams score in Varhaug vs Staal Jørpeland?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.