Football · Norway Division 3 Group 4 · 04/10, 14:00

Prediction: Madla vs Brodd

Team pages: Madla · Brodd

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.11Total

Madla2.63

Brodd1.48

1X2

62% 18% 20%

Madla Draw Brodd

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

2-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Madla 7-3-0 (W-D-L)

DWWWDWWWDW

Brodd 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WWDLWWLLDL

Head-to-head

Madla 2–2–2 Brodd (6 last)

Brodd3-4Madla
Madla2-2Brodd
Brodd2-2Madla
Brodd3-1Madla
Madla0-3Brodd
Madla1-0Brodd

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Madla 1581 · Brodd 1467

	Madla	Draw	Brodd
Our model	62%	19%	19%
Market	62%	18%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 4.11 goals · Bet365 line 4.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 75%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Madla (rating 1581 vs 1467).
Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Madla	Brodd
Goals for / against (FT)	3.2 / 1.1	1.8 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 0.4	0.7 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 5.1	3 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0	4 / 0.9

Odds Bet365

11.44

X5.00

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.82

2 (+1.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 4.251.98

Under 4.251.82

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.85

Market movement

Match winner · 5 moves · last 13:39

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.48 → 1.44▼	Pinn 1.47 ★
X	4.75 → 5.00▲	Bet365 5.00
2	4.33 → 4.50▲	Pinn 4.53

See the full journey (5)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
16:58 +22’	1.48	4.75	4.33
00:59 +19’	1.53▲	4.75	4.00▼
06:29 +7’	1.45▼	4.75	4.50▲
09:31 +3’	1.45	5.00▲	4.33▼
13:36 +2’	1.44▼	5.00	4.50▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
02:11 +99’	1.41	4.75	4.77
08:14 +79’	1.40▼	4.86▲	4.81▲
13:36 +2’	1.47▲	4.76▼	4.53▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Madla 2–2–2 Brodd

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/04/26 Norway Division 3 Group 4	Brodd	3-4 HT 1-2	Madla
13/09/25 Norway Division 3 Group 5	Madla	2-2 HT 1-0	Brodd
31/05/25 Norway Division 3 Group 5	Brodd	2-2 HT 1-1	Madla
06/07/24 Norway Division 3 Group 2	Brodd	3-1 HT 1-1	Madla
30/05/24 Norway Division 3 Group 2	Madla	0-3 HT 0-1	Brodd
21/09/23 Norway Division 3 Group 3	Madla	1-0 HT 0-0	Brodd

Standings · Norway Division 3 Group 4

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Madla	21	13	6	2	57	26	45
2	Mandalskameratene	22	13	4	5	54	33	43
3	Flekkerøy	22	12	3	7	45	36	39
4	Vindbjart	22	12	2	8	50	26	38
5	Varhaug	22	10	6	6	41	34	36
6	Viking 2	21	9	5	7	51	30	32
7	Vag FK	22	9	2	11	35	38	29
8	Brodd	21	8	3	10	39	42	27
9	Stabaek 2	21	8	3	10	43	48	27
10	Staal Jørpeland	22	7	5	10	45	54	26
11	Odd II	21	6	5	10	36	49	23
12	Hinna	22	6	5	11	42	63	23
13	Haugesund 2	21	6	4	11	39	59	22
14	Åkra	22	4	3	15	27	66	15

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Madla	Brodd
Åkra	6-0 W	4-1 W
Haugesund 2	1-1 D	4-0 W
Flekkerøy	2-0 W	1-0 W
Viking 2	1-1 D	3-1 W
Vindbjart	4-3 W	0-2 L
Vag FK	3-2 W	2-2 D
Mandalskameratene	2-2 D	1-2 L
Record vs common	4 W 3 D 0 L	4 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Madla (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Madla

DWWWDWWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Åkra Norway Division 3 Group 4	2-0	6-0	–	–	W
21/09	Haugesund 2 Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-0	1-1	9	2	D
12/09	Hinna Norway Division 3 Group 4	4-1	4-1	1	5	W
05/09	Flekkerøy Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
31/08	Odd II Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-0	4-0	3	2	W
17/08	Viking 2 Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-0	1-1	5	5	D
08/08	Vindbjart Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-2	4-3	3	3	W
01/08	Vag FK Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-1	3-2	9	5	W
25/07	Flekkerøy Norway Division 3 Group 4	4-0	5-1	4	2	W
27/06	Mandalskameratene Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-0	2-2	7	4	D

Brodd

WWDLWWLLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Vindbjart Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-2	0-2	7	1	L
19/09	Vag FK Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-1	2-2	3	12	D
12/09	Staal Jørpeland Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-2	1-3	3	6	L
05/09	Varhaug Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-1	0-3	3	3	L
30/08	Viking 2 Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-1	3-1	9	2	W
15/08	Flekkerøy Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
08/08	Mandalskameratene Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-0	1-2	–	–	L
03/08	Stabaek 2 Norway Division 3 Group 4	2-1	2-2	10	6	D
26/07	Åkra Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-0	4-1	–	–	W
28/06	Haugesund 2 Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-0	4-0	2	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Madla vs Brodd?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Madla win (62%). Probabilities: Madla 62%, draw 18%, Brodd 20%.

How many goals are expected in Madla vs Brodd?

The model expects 4.11 goals (Madla 2.63 · Brodd 1.48), with a 54% chance of under 4.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Madla vs Brodd?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.