Football · Norway Division 3 Group 4 · 03/10, 15:00

Prediction: Vag FK vs Varhaug

Team pages: Vag FK · Varhaug

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.57Total

Vag FK1.75

Varhaug1.82

1X2

37% 22% 40%

Vag FK Draw Varhaug

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Vag FK 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WDLLLLWWDW

Varhaug 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

DDLWWWWLDW

Head-to-head

Vag FK 1–0 Varhaug (1 last)

Varhaug0-1Vag FK

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Vag FK 1502 · Varhaug 1512

	Vag FK	Draw	Varhaug
Our model	37%	24%	40%
Market	38%	21%	41%

Estimated total (ours) 3.57 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Vag FK	Varhaug
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.8	2.1 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.4	0.7 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 4.1	2 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.3	4.2 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.38

X4.20

22.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.00

2 (0)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.90

Under 3.51.90

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 3.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:29

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.38 → 2.38	Bet365 2.38
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
15:24 +5’	2.38	4.20	2.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Vag FK 1–0–0 Varhaug

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/05/26 Norway Division 3 Group 4	Varhaug	0-1 HT 0-1	Vag FK

Standings · Norway Division 3 Group 4

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Madla	21	13	6	2	57	26	45
2	Mandalskameratene	21	12	4	5	50	33	40
3	Vindbjart	21	12	2	7	49	24	38
4	Varhaug	21	10	6	5	40	30	36
5	Flekkerøy	21	11	3	7	43	35	36
6	Viking 2	21	9	5	7	51	30	32
7	Brodd	21	8	3	10	39	42	27
8	Stabaek 2	21	8	3	10	43	48	27
9	Vag FK	21	8	2	11	31	37	26
10	Staal Jørpeland	21	6	5	10	41	52	23
11	Odd II	21	6	5	10	36	49	23
12	Hinna	21	6	5	10	40	59	23
13	Haugesund 2	21	6	4	11	39	59	22
14	Åkra	21	4	3	14	27	62	15

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Vag FK	Varhaug
Viking 2	2-1 W	0-4 L
Brodd	2-2 D	3-0 W
Haugesund 2	3-0 W	2-2 D
Åkra	3-2 W	2-1 W
Hinna	0-3 L	3-5 L
Mandalskameratene	1-2 L	2-0 W
Stabaek 2	0-2 L	2-0 W
Odd II	1-1 D	2-2 D
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 3 L	4 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Varhaug (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Vag FK

WDLLLLWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Viking 2 Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-0	2-1	6	2	W
19/09	Brodd Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-0	2-2	4	12	D
12/09	Haugesund 2 Norway Division 3 Group 4	2-0	3-0	–	–	W
05/09	Åkra Norway Division 3 Group 4	2-0	3-2	–	–	W
30/08	Hinna Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-0	0-3	–	–	L
15/08	Mandalskameratene Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-1	1-2	4	5	L
09/08	Stabaek 2 Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-2	0-2	3	2	L
01/08	Madla Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-0	2-3	6	5	L
27/07	Odd II Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-1	1-1	3	6	D
25/06	Viking 2 Norway Division 3 Group 4	2-0	3-2	3	4	W

Varhaug

DDLWWWWLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/09	Staal Jørpeland Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-1	4-2	7	6	W
19/09	Flekkerøy Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-1	1-1	–	–	D
14/09	Viking 2 Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-2	0-4	1	5	L
05/09	Brodd Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-0	3-0	4	3	W
30/08	Mandalskameratene Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-0	2-0	–	–	W
17/08	Stabaek 2 Norway Division 3 Group 4	2-0	2-0	3	7	W
07/08	Åkra Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-0	2-1	9	4	W
31/07	Hinna Norway Division 3 Group 4	2-1	3-5	–	–	L
27/07	Haugesund 2 Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-1	2-2	–	–	D
28/06	Odd II Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-1	2-2	4	0	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Vag FK vs Varhaug?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Varhaug win (40%). Probabilities: Vag FK 37%, draw 22%, Varhaug 40%.

How many goals are expected in Vag FK vs Varhaug?

The model expects 3.57 goals (Vag FK 1.75 · Varhaug 1.82), with a 51% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Vag FK vs Varhaug?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.