Football · Norway Division 3 Group 4 · 03/10, 15:00

Prediction: Vindbjart vs Flekkerøy

Team pages: Vindbjart · Flekkerøy

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.65Total

Vindbjart2.1

Flekkerøy1.55

1X2

50% 22% 28%

Vindbjart Draw Flekkerøy

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Vindbjart 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

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Flekkerøy 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WLWLLWLLDW

Head-to-head

Vindbjart 1–5 Flekkerøy (6 last)

Vindbjart2-1Flekkerøy
Flekkerøy2-0Vindbjart
Vindbjart0-6Flekkerøy
Flekkerøy5-2Vindbjart
Vindbjart0-1Flekkerøy
Vindbjart0-5Flekkerøy

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Vindbjart 1523 · Flekkerøy 1489

	Vindbjart	Draw	Flekkerøy
Our model	50%	23%	28%
Market	50%	22%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 3.65 goals · Bet365 line 3.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Flekkerøy: 5-0-1.
High corners: 13.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Vindbjart	Flekkerøy
Goals for / against (FT)	2.9 / 1.2	1.6 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	1.6 / 0.5	0.6 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/40/0%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.9 / 8.4	1.7 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0	2.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.80

X4.20

23.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.82

2 (+0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.95

Under 3.751.85

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:28

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.6%

Time*	1	X	2
15:22 +6’	1.80	4.20	3.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Vindbjart 1–0–5 Flekkerøy

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/08/26 Norway Cup	Vindbjart	2-1 HT 2-0	Flekkerøy
23/05/26 Norway Division 3 Group 4	Flekkerøy	2-0 HT 1-0	Vindbjart
19/05/22 Norway Cup	Vindbjart	0-6 HT 0-2	Flekkerøy
11/02/22 Europe Friendlies	Flekkerøy	5-2 HT 2-2	Vindbjart
24/07/21 Norway Cup	Vindbjart	0-1 HT 0-1	Flekkerøy
27/09/19 Norway Division 3 Group 3	Vindbjart	0-5 HT 0-2	Flekkerøy

Standings · Norway Division 3 Group 4

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Madla	21	13	6	2	57	26	45
2	Mandalskameratene	21	12	4	5	50	33	40
3	Vindbjart	21	12	2	7	49	24	38
4	Varhaug	21	10	6	5	40	30	36
5	Flekkerøy	21	11	3	7	43	35	36
6	Viking 2	21	9	5	7	51	30	32
7	Brodd	21	8	3	10	39	42	27
8	Stabaek 2	21	8	3	10	43	48	27
9	Vag FK	21	8	2	11	31	37	26
10	Staal Jørpeland	21	6	5	10	41	52	23
11	Odd II	21	6	5	10	36	49	23
12	Hinna	21	6	5	10	40	59	23
13	Haugesund 2	21	6	4	11	39	59	22
14	Åkra	21	4	3	14	27	62	15

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Vindbjart	Flekkerøy
Brodd	2-0 W	0-1 L
Mandalskameratene	0-1 L	1-3 L
Stabaek 2	1-3 L	2-1 W
Hinna	2-0 W	2-3 L
Haugesund 2	4-0 W	2-1 W
Åkra	6-0 W	4-1 W
Madla	3-4 L	0-2 L
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 3 L	3 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Vindbjart (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Vindbjart

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Brodd Norway Division 3 Group 4	2-0	2-0	12	1	W
19/09	Mandalskameratene Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
13/09	Stabaek 2 Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-1	1-3	7	4	L
05/09	Hinna Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-0	2-0	16	5	W
30/08	Haugesund 2 Norway Division 3 Group 4	2-0	4-0	–	–	W
15/08	Åkra Norway Division 3 Group 4	3-0	6-0	4	9	W
08/08	Madla Norway Division 3 Group 4	2-1	3-4	4	3	L
03/08	Odd II Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-1	2-1	8	3	W
25/07	Hinna Norway Division 3 Group 4	2-0	7-0	6	2	W
28/06	Stabaek 2 Norway Division 3 Group 4	2-2	2-3	10	1	L

Flekkerøy

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/09	Stabaek 2 Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-0	2-1	4	4	W
19/09	Varhaug Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-1	1-1	–	–	D
12/09	Mandalskameratene Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-0	1-3	–	–	L
05/09	Madla Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
30/08	Åkra Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-0	4-1	–	–	W
15/08	Brodd Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
08/08	Hinna Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-1	2-3	2	4	L
01/08	Haugesund 2 Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-0	2-1	9	3	W
25/07	Madla Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-4	1-5	2	2	L
26/06	Åkra Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-1	3-1	7	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Vindbjart vs Flekkerøy?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Vindbjart win (50%). Probabilities: Vindbjart 50%, draw 22%, Flekkerøy 28%.

How many goals are expected in Vindbjart vs Flekkerøy?

The model expects 3.65 goals (Vindbjart 2.1 · Flekkerøy 1.55), with a 54% chance of under 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Vindbjart vs Flekkerøy?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.