Football · Norway Division 3 Group 2 · 25/07, 15:30
Prediction: Melhus vs Herd
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.45Total
Melhus1.9
Herd1.56
1X2
Melhus
Draw
Herd
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 59%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Melhus
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
Herd
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Melhus 1541 · Herd 1551
| Melhus | Draw | Herd | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 45% | 24% | 31% |
| Market | 46% | 22% | 32% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.45 goals · Bet365 line 3.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate
Match keys
- High corners: 12.8 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Melhus | Herd | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.2 / 1.2 | 2.5 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.4 | 0.6 / 1.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/30/20% | 40/10/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.2 / 6.4 | 3.2 / 6.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3 / 0.4 | 3.8 / 0.4 |
Standings · Norway Division 3 Group 2
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Herd | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 31 | 18 | 24 |
| 2 | Volda | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 30 | 18 | 23 |
| 3 | Melhus | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 29 | 16 | 22 |
| 4 | Strindheim | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 30 | 26 | 20 |
| 5 | Byåsen | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 23 | 25 | 19 |
| 6 | Rosenborg 2 | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 24 | 20 | 18 |
| 7 | Kvik Trondheim | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 24 | 27 | 17 |
| 8 | Ranheim 2 | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 35 | 31 | 16 |
| 9 | Molde 2 | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 31 | 36 | 15 |
| 10 | Orkla | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 21 | 28 | 14 |
| 11 | NTNUI | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 19 | 26 | 14 |
| 12 | Spjelkavik | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 19 | 21 | 13 |
| 13 | Nardo | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 23 | 29 | 11 |
| 14 | Aalesunds FK 2 | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 20 | 38 | 10 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Melhus | Herd |
|---|---|---|
| Strindheim | 1-2 L | 2-4 L |
| Rosenborg 2 | 1-1 D | 3-0 W |
| Byåsen | 2-3 L | 3-1 W |
| Orkla | 2-0 W | 3-1 W |
| Nardo | 2-2 D | 4-1 W |
| Aalesunds FK 2 | 3-2 W | 0-2 L |
| Kvik Trondheim | 4-0 W | 5-1 W |
| Volda | 4-2 W | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 4 W 2 D 2 L | 6 W 0 D 2 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Melhus
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/06 | Strindheim Norway Division 3 Group 2 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 11 | 1 | L |
| 19/06 | Rosenborg 2 Norway Division 3 Group 2 |
1-0 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 14/06 | Byåsen Norway Division 3 Group 2 |
0-1 | 2-3 | 5 | 8 | L |
| 30/05 | Molde 2 Norway Division 3 Group 2 |
0-0 | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 22/05 | Orkla Norway Division 3 Group 2 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 14/05 | Spjelkavik Norway Division 3 Group 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 09/05 | Nardo Norway Division 3 Group 2 |
2-1 | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 03/05 | Aalesunds FK 2 Norway Division 3 Group 2 |
1-1 | 3-2 | 6 | 3 | W |
| 27/04 | Kvik Trondheim Norway Division 3 Group 2 |
2-0 | 4-0 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 18/04 | Volda Norway Division 3 Group 2 |
2-0 | 4-2 | – | – | W |
Herd
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | NTNUI Norway Division 3 Group 2 |
0-2 | 2-2 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 20/06 | Kvik Trondheim Norway Division 3 Group 2 |
2-1 | 5-1 | – | – | W |
| 13/06 | Nardo Norway Division 3 Group 2 |
1-0 | 4-1 | 7 | 5 | W |
| 30/05 | Ranheim 2 Norway Division 3 Group 2 |
1-2 | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 26/05 | Aalesunds FK 2 Norway Division 3 Group 2 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 14 | 9 | L |
| 16/05 | Volda Norway Division 3 Group 2 |
0-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 09/05 | Orkla Norway Division 3 Group 2 |
0-1 | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 01/05 | Byåsen Norway Division 3 Group 2 |
1-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 25/04 | Strindheim Norway Division 3 Group 2 |
0-4 | 2-4 | – | – | L |
| 19/04 | Rosenborg 2 Norway Division 3 Group 2 |
1-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Melhus vs Herd?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Melhus win (45%). Probabilities: Melhus 45%, draw 23%, Herd 32%.
How many goals are expected in Melhus vs Herd?
The model expects 3.45 goals (Melhus 1.9 · Herd 1.56), with a 53% chance of under 3.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Melhus vs Herd?
The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.