Football · Norway Division 3 Group 2 · 03/08, 18:00

Prediction: Nardo vs Molde 2

Team pages: Molde 2

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.45Total

Nardo2.31

Molde 22.14

1X2

43% 21% 37%

Nardo Draw Molde 2

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 64%

Most likely score

2-2

Recent form · 10 last

Nardo 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

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Molde 2 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WLDWWLLLWD

Head-to-head

Nardo 5–1 Molde 2 (6 last)

Molde 24-2Nardo
Molde 22-3Nardo
Nardo4-2Molde 2
Nardo3-1Molde 2
Molde 21-2Nardo
Molde 20-1Nardo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Nardo 1450 · Molde 2 1490

	Nardo	Draw	Molde 2
Our model	43%	21%	37%
Market	43%	21%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 4.45 goals · Bet365 line 4.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 77%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Molde 2 (rating 1450 vs 1490).
H2H favours Nardo: 5-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Nardo	Molde 2
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 2.7	2.8 / 3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1.2	1.1 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/20/60%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 3.9	1.7 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0	4 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.10

X4.33

22.45

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.98

2 (+0.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 4.251.90

Under 4.251.90

Diff.: 0.9 · xG: 5.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:22

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10
X	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
2	2.45 → 2.45	Bet365 2.45

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
12:17 +5’	2.10	4.33	2.45

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Nardo 5–0–1 Molde 2

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/04/26 Norway Division 3 Group 2	Molde 2	4-2 HT 1-2	Nardo
11/10/25 Norway Division 3 Group 2	Molde 2	2-3 HT 1-3	Nardo
31/03/25 Norway Division 3 Group 2	Nardo	4-2 HT 2-0	Molde 2
24/07/16 Norway Division 2 Group 2	Nardo	3-1 HT 2-0	Molde 2
09/04/16 Norway Division 2 Group 2	Molde 2	1-2 HT 0-1	Nardo
24/08/15 Norway Division 2 Group 4	Molde 2	0-1 HT 0-1	Nardo

Standings · Norway Division 3 Group 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Volda	14	9	2	3	38	18	29
2	Melhus	13	7	4	2	31	16	25
3	Herd	14	7	3	4	31	21	24
4	Strindheim	13	6	3	4	31	27	21
5	Byåsen	14	6	2	6	31	34	20
6	Rosenborg 2	13	5	4	4	25	21	19
7	Spjelkavik	14	5	4	5	26	25	19
8	Kvik Trondheim	13	5	2	6	24	27	17
9	Ranheim 2	13	4	4	5	35	38	16
10	Molde 2	13	4	4	5	37	42	16
11	NTNUI	13	3	5	5	19	26	14
12	Orkla	13	4	2	7	23	32	14
13	Aalesunds FK 2	13	4	1	8	24	40	13
14	Nardo	13	3	2	8	25	33	11

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Nardo	Molde 2
Spjelkavik	2-4 L	3-1 W
NTNUI	2-0 W	2-2 D
Rosenborg 2	1-1 D	0-4 L
Strindheim	1-4 L	2-4 L
Byåsen	2-4 L	6-6 D
Melhus	2-2 D	0-3 L
Orkla	3-0 W	5-3 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 3 L	2 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Nardo (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Nardo

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	Spjelkavik Norway Division 3 Group 2	0-1	2-4	–	–	L
27/06	Ranheim 2 Norway Division 3 Group 2	3-2	3-5	–	–	L
20/06	NTNUI Norway Division 3 Group 2	0-0	2-0	1	3	W
13/06	Herd Norway Division 3 Group 2	0-1	1-4	4	5	L
06/06	Tynset Norway Cup	0-1	1-3	2	2	L
30/05	Rosenborg 2 Norway Division 3 Group 2	0-0	1-1	5	4	D
25/05	Strindheim Norway Division 3 Group 2	1-2	1-4	3	2	L
14/05	Byåsen Norway Division 3 Group 2	1-3	2-4	4	5	L
09/05	Melhus Norway Division 3 Group 2	1-2	2-2	–	–	D
02/05	Orkla Norway Division 3 Group 2	1-0	3-0	8	0	W

Molde 2

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	Byåsen Norway Division 3 Group 2	2-0	6-6	–	–	D
27/06	Orkla Norway Division 3 Group 2	2-1	5-3	–	–	W
21/06	Strindheim Norway Division 3 Group 2	1-2	2-4	–	–	L
13/06	Rosenborg 2 Norway Division 3 Group 2	0-4	0-4	2	4	L
30/05	Melhus Norway Division 3 Group 2	0-0	0-3	–	–	L
22/05	Spjelkavik Norway Division 3 Group 2	2-1	3-1	4	5	W
14/05	Aalesunds FK 2 Norway Division 3 Group 2	2-0	6-0	–	–	W
09/05	NTNUI Norway Division 3 Group 2	1-1	2-2	–	–	D
02/05	Volda Norway Division 3 Group 2	0-0	0-5	–	–	L
25/04	Nardo Norway Division 3 Group 2	1-2	4-2	9	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Nardo vs Molde 2?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Nardo win (43%). Probabilities: Nardo 43%, draw 21%, Molde 2 37%.

How many goals are expected in Nardo vs Molde 2?

The model expects 4.45 goals (Nardo 2.31 · Molde 2 2.14), with a 51% chance of over 4.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Nardo vs Molde 2?

The model gives a 64% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-2.