Football · Norway Division 3 Group 2 · 02/10, 18:30
Prediction: Molde 2 vs Herd
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.54Total
Molde 22.12
Herd2.42
1X2
Molde 2
Draw
Herd
Markets
Under 4.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 64%
Most likely score
2-2 7%
Recent form · 10 last
Molde 2
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Herd
1-3-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Molde 2
3–2–1
Herd
(6 last)
- Herd3-3Molde 2
- Herd1-1Molde 2
- Molde 23-0Herd
- Molde 23-2Herd
- Herd0-1Molde 2
- Herd1-0Molde 2
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Molde 2 1519 · Herd 1446
| Molde 2 | Draw | Herd | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 35% | 20% | 45% |
| Market | 34% | 22% | 44% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.54 goals · Bet365 line 4.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 81%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Molde 2 (rating 1519 vs 1446).
- H2H favours Molde 2: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 5.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Molde 2 | Herd | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.9 / 3.4 | 1.6 / 2.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.4 / 1.6 | 0.2 / 1.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/0/50% | 10/30/60% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.5 / 5 | 1.8 / 4.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.3 / 0 | 2.9 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Molde 2 3–2–1 Herd
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/04/26 Norway Division 3 Group 2 | Herd | 3-3 HT 1-2 | Molde 2 |
| 19/08/19 Norway Division 3 Group 1 | Herd | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Molde 2 |
| 04/05/19 Norway Division 3 Group 1 | Molde 2 | 3-0 HT 3-0 | Herd |
| 13/10/18 Norway Division 3 Group 1 | Molde 2 | 3-2 HT 2-0 | Herd |
| 24/06/18 Norway Division 3 Group 1 | Herd | 0-1 | Molde 2 |
| 05/10/14 Norway Division 2 Group 2 | Herd | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Molde 2 |
Standings · Norway Division 3 Group 2
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Volda | 21 | 14 | 4 | 3 | 55 | 23 | 46 |
| 2 | Strindheim | 21 | 13 | 4 | 4 | 57 | 30 | 43 |
| 3 | Byåsen | 21 | 11 | 3 | 7 | 50 | 39 | 36 |
| 4 | Melhus | 21 | 10 | 5 | 6 | 48 | 27 | 35 |
| 5 | Rosenborg 2 | 21 | 9 | 4 | 8 | 49 | 36 | 31 |
| 6 | Herd | 21 | 8 | 5 | 8 | 45 | 38 | 29 |
| 7 | Molde 2 | 21 | 8 | 5 | 8 | 55 | 67 | 29 |
| 8 | Spjelkavik | 21 | 8 | 4 | 9 | 39 | 43 | 28 |
| 9 | Nardo | 20 | 8 | 2 | 10 | 47 | 45 | 26 |
| 10 | Ranheim 2 | 21 | 6 | 5 | 10 | 53 | 69 | 23 |
| 11 | Kvik Trondheim | 21 | 6 | 4 | 11 | 31 | 52 | 22 |
| 12 | NTNUI | 21 | 5 | 6 | 10 | 31 | 50 | 21 |
| 13 | Orkla | 21 | 5 | 5 | 11 | 39 | 58 | 20 |
| 14 | Aalesunds FK 2 | 20 | 6 | 2 | 12 | 37 | 59 | 20 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Molde 2 | Herd |
|---|---|---|
| Melhus | 1-0 W | 1-4 L |
| NTNUI | 4-4 D | 1-2 L |
| Aalesunds FK 2 | 3-2 W | 0-3 L |
| Kvik Trondheim | 6-3 W | 0-0 D |
| Byåsen | 6-6 D | 1-6 L |
| Orkla | 5-3 W | 2-2 D |
| Record vs common | 4 W 2 D 0 L | 0 W 2 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Molde 2 (6 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Molde 2
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/09 | Strindheim Norway Division 3 Group 2 |
0-5 | 0-10 | – | – | L |
| 20/09 | Melhus Norway Division 3 Group 2 |
1-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 12/09 | NTNUI Norway Division 3 Group 2 |
2-3 | 4-4 | – | – | D |
| 07/09 | Aalesunds FK 2 Norway Division 3 Group 2 |
1-2 | 3-2 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 31/08 | Spjelkavik Norway Division 3 Group 2 |
1-2 | 1-3 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 17/08 | Rosenborg 2 Norway Division 3 Group 2 |
2-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 09/08 | Kvik Trondheim Norway Division 3 Group 2 |
3-1 | 6-3 | – | – | W |
| 03/08 | Nardo Norway Division 3 Group 2 |
0-2 | 0-3 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 25/07 | Byåsen Norway Division 3 Group 2 |
2-0 | 6-6 | – | – | D |
| 27/06 | Orkla Norway Division 3 Group 2 |
2-1 | 5-3 | – | – | W |
Herd
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/09 | Kvik Trondheim Norway Division 3 Group 2 |
0-0 | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 19/09 | Byåsen Norway Division 3 Group 2 |
0-5 | 1-6 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 12/09 | Orkla Norway Division 3 Group 2 |
1-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 7 | D |
| 05/09 | Melhus Norway Division 3 Group 2 |
0-1 | 1-4 | 8 | 1 | L |
| 30/08 | NTNUI Norway Division 3 Group 2 |
0-2 | 1-2 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 15/08 | Ranheim 2 Norway Division 3 Group 2 |
1-0 | 9-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 10/08 | Aalesunds FK 2 Norway Division 3 Group 2 |
0-1 | 0-3 | – | – | L |
| 31/07 | Volda Norway Division 3 Group 2 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 25/07 | Melhus Norway Division 3 Group 2 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 27/06 | NTNUI Norway Division 3 Group 2 |
0-2 | 2-2 | 4 | 2 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Molde 2 vs Herd?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Herd win (45%). Probabilities: Molde 2 34%, draw 21%, Herd 45%.
How many goals are expected in Molde 2 vs Herd?
The model expects 4.54 goals (Molde 2 2.12 · Herd 2.42), with a 52% chance of under 4.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Molde 2 vs Herd?
The model gives a 64% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-2.