Football · Norway Division 3 Group 4 · 25/07, 15:00

Prediction: Madla vs Flekkerøy

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.66Total

Madla1.83

Flekkerøy1.83

1X2

39% 23% 39%

Madla Draw Flekkerøy

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Madla 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WWLWDWDWLD

Flekkerøy 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

LWDWWWWWLW

Head-to-head

Madla 0–4 Flekkerøy (4 last)

Flekkerøy2-0Madla
Madla0-5Flekkerøy
Flekkerøy3-1Madla

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Madla 1537 · Flekkerøy 1559

	Madla	Draw	Flekkerøy
Our model	38%	23%	38%
Market	39%	22%	39%

Estimated total (ours) 3.66 goals · Bet365 line 3.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Flekkerøy: 4-0-0.
High corners: 13.8 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Madla	Flekkerøy
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 1.3	2.6 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.3	1 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	4.2 / 7.3	3.2 / 6.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0	3.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.30

X4.10

22.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.90

2 (0)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.95

Under 3.751.85

Diff.: 0 · xG: 3.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30
X	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
2	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
16:12 +1’	2.30	4.10	2.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Madla 0–0–4 Flekkerøy

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/09/19 Norway Division 3 Group 3	Flekkerøy	2-0	Madla
09/06/19 Norway Division 3 Group 3	Madla	0-5 HT 0-2	Flekkerøy
07/10/17 Norway Division 3 Group 3	Flekkerøy	3-1	Madla
24/06/17 Norway Division 3 Group 3	Madla	1-4 HT 1-3	Flekkerøy

Standings · Norway Division 3 Group 4

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Flekkerøy	12	8	2	2	30	17	26
2	Madla	12	6	4	2	27	17	22
3	Viking 2	12	6	2	4	32	16	20
4	Vindbjart	12	6	2	4	22	15	20
5	Mandalskameratene	12	5	4	3	28	21	19
6	Varhaug	12	5	4	3	21	15	19
7	Brodd	12	5	1	6	25	26	16
8	Staal Jørpeland	12	4	4	4	22	24	16
9	Vag FK	12	5	0	7	17	21	15
10	Stabaek 2	12	5	0	7	30	35	15
11	Haugesund 2	12	4	2	6	25	31	14
12	Odd II	12	3	3	6	20	32	12
13	Åkra	12	3	2	7	15	30	11
14	Hinna	12	2	4	6	20	34	10

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Madla	Flekkerøy
Mandalskameratene	2-2 D	2-1 W
Haugesund 2	2-3 L	4-3 W
Åkra	3-1 W	3-1 W
Vindbjart	2-2 D	2-0 W
Hinna	3-0 W	4-3 W
Odd II	2-2 D	1-3 L
Stabaek 2	1-2 L	6-0 W
Vag FK	2-1 W	2-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 3 D 2 L	7 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Flekkerøy (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Madla

WWLWDWDWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/06	Mandalskameratene Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-0	2-2	7	4	D
22/06	Haugesund 2 Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-1	2-3	7	2	L
13/06	Åkra Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-0	3-1	–	–	W
30/05	Vindbjart Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-0	2-2	4	4	D
25/05	Hinna Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-0	3-0	11	4	W
14/05	Odd II Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-0	2-2	–	–	D
11/05	Viking 2 Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-0	2-0	9	1	W
02/05	Stabaek 2 Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-1	1-2	6	2	L
25/04	Vag FK Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-1	2-1	–	–	W
18/04	Staal Jørpeland Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-0	3-0	–	–	W

Flekkerøy

LWDWWWWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/06	Åkra Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-1	3-1	7	2	W
22/06	Odd II Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-0	1-3	8	5	L
14/06	Hinna Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-0	4-3	6	2	W
30/05	Haugesund 2 Norway Division 3 Group 4	2-3	4-3	–	–	W
23/05	Vindbjart Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-0	2-0	2	7	W
16/05	Vag FK Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-0	2-0	4	2	W
11/05	Stabaek 2 Norway Division 3 Group 4	4-0	6-0	8	1	W
01/05	Varhaug Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-1	1-1	9	5	D
25/04	Mandalskameratene Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-1	2-1	10	3	W
18/04	Brodd Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-0	1-2	4	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Madla vs Flekkerøy?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Madla win (39%). Probabilities: Madla 39%, draw 23%, Flekkerøy 39%.

How many goals are expected in Madla vs Flekkerøy?

The model expects 3.66 goals (Madla 1.83 · Flekkerøy 1.83), with a 54% chance of under 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Madla vs Flekkerøy?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.