Football · Norway Division 3 Group 4 · 01/08, 15:00

Prediction: Vag FK vs Madla

Team pages: Vag FK · Madla

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.51Total

Vag FK1.47

Madla2.04

1X2

27% 22% 51%

Vag FK Draw Madla

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Vag FK 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LLLWLWWLWD

Madla 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WLWDWDWLDW

Head-to-head

Vag FK 1–1–1 Madla (3 last)

Madla2-1Vag FK
Vag FK2-0Madla
Madla3-3Vag FK

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Vag FK 1496 · Madla 1533

	Vag FK	Draw	Madla
Our model	27%	23%	50%
Market	28%	21%	51%

Estimated total (ours) 3.51 goals · Bet365 line 3.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 13.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Vag FK	Madla
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.9	2.4 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.9	0.8 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 6.6	3.7 / 6.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.6	2.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.20

X4.33

21.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.80

2 (-0.75)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.85

Under 3.51.95

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:31

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
X	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
2	1.75 → 1.75	Pinn 1.81 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5% Pinnacle margin 12.5%

Time*	1	X	2
19:22 +9’	3.20	4.33	1.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
03:30 +1’	2.96	4.18	1.82
04:39	2.99▲	4.22▲	1.81▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Vag FK 1–1–1 Madla

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/04/26 Norway Division 3 Group 4	Madla	2-1 HT 0-1	Vag FK
09/08/25 Norway Division 3 Group 5	Vag FK	2-0 HT 0-0	Madla
14/06/25 Norway Division 3 Group 5	Madla	3-3 HT 0-1	Vag FK

Standings · Norway Division 3 Group 4

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Flekkerøy	13	8	2	3	31	22	26
2	Madla	13	7	4	2	32	18	25
3	Vindbjart	13	7	2	4	29	15	23
4	Mandalskameratene	13	6	4	3	36	24	22
5	Viking 2	13	6	3	4	33	17	21
6	Varhaug	13	5	5	3	23	17	20
7	Brodd	13	6	1	6	29	27	19
8	Vag FK	13	5	1	7	18	22	16
9	Stabaek 2	13	5	1	7	31	36	16
10	Staal Jørpeland	13	4	4	5	25	32	16
11	Haugesund 2	13	4	3	6	27	33	15
12	Odd II	13	3	4	6	21	33	13
13	Åkra	13	3	2	8	16	34	11
14	Hinna	13	2	4	7	20	41	10

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Vag FK	Madla
Odd II	1-1 D	2-2 D
Viking 2	3-2 W	2-0 W
Mandalskameratene	1-2 L	2-2 D
Stabaek 2	3-2 W	1-2 L
Flekkerøy	0-2 L	5-1 W
Haugesund 2	2-4 L	2-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 3 L	2 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Madla (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Vag FK

LLLWLWWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/07	Odd II Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-1	1-1	3	6	D
25/06	Viking 2 Norway Division 3 Group 4	2-0	3-2	3	4	W
21/06	Mandalskameratene Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-0	1-2	–	–	L
15/06	Stabaek 2 Norway Division 3 Group 4	2-1	3-2	9	4	W
06/06	Trauma Norway Cup	2-1	5-1	9	3	W
30/05	Staal Jørpeland Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-0	0-1	9	2	L
25/05	Varhaug Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-0	1-0	7	4	W
16/05	Flekkerøy Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-0	0-2	7	2	L
10/05	Brodd Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-3	1-4	3	5	L
02/05	Haugesund 2 Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-3	2-4	9	6	L

Madla

WLWDWDWLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	Flekkerøy Norway Division 3 Group 4	4-0	5-1	4	2	W
27/06	Mandalskameratene Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-0	2-2	7	4	D
22/06	Haugesund 2 Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-1	2-3	7	2	L
13/06	Åkra Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-0	3-1	–	–	W
30/05	Vindbjart Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-0	2-2	4	4	D
25/05	Hinna Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-0	3-0	11	4	W
14/05	Odd II Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-0	2-2	–	–	D
11/05	Viking 2 Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-0	2-0	9	1	W
02/05	Stabaek 2 Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-1	1-2	6	2	L
25/04	Vag FK Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-1	2-1	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Vag FK vs Madla?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Madla win (51%). Probabilities: Vag FK 27%, draw 22%, Madla 51%.

How many goals are expected in Vag FK vs Madla?

The model expects 3.51 goals (Vag FK 1.47 · Madla 2.04), with a 51% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Vag FK vs Madla?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.