Football · Norway Division 3 Group 4 · 25/07, 16:00

Prediction: Stabaek 2 vs Viking 2

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.41Total

Stabaek 21.86

Viking 22.55

1X2

28% 19% 53%

Stabaek 2 Draw Viking 2

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 63%

Most likely score

1-2

Recent form · 10 last

Stabaek 2 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

WLWLLWWLLW

Viking 2 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WLWLDDWWWL

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Stabaek 2 1498 · Viking 2 1536

	Stabaek 2	Draw	Viking 2
Our model	28%	20%	52%
Market	28%	19%	53%

Estimated total (ours) 4.41 goals · Bet365 line 4.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 76%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 12.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Stabaek 2	Viking 2
Goals for / against (FT)	2.5 / 2.7	2.7 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 1.4	0.7 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.2 / 5	3.1 / 7.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0	2.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.20

X4.75

21.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)1.88

2 (-0.75)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 4.251.98

Under 4.251.82

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 4.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20
X	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75
2	1.70 → 1.70	Bet365 1.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
16:08 +6’	3.20	4.75	1.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · Norway Division 3 Group 4

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Flekkerøy	12	8	2	2	30	17	26
2	Madla	12	6	4	2	27	17	22
3	Viking 2	12	6	2	4	32	16	20
4	Vindbjart	12	6	2	4	22	15	20
5	Mandalskameratene	12	5	4	3	28	21	19
6	Varhaug	12	5	4	3	21	15	19
7	Brodd	12	5	1	6	25	26	16
8	Staal Jørpeland	12	4	4	4	22	24	16
9	Vag FK	12	5	0	7	17	21	15
10	Stabaek 2	12	5	0	7	30	35	15
11	Haugesund 2	12	4	2	6	25	31	14
12	Odd II	12	3	3	6	20	32	12
13	Åkra	12	3	2	7	15	30	11
14	Hinna	12	2	4	6	20	34	10

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Stabaek 2	Viking 2
Vindbjart	3-2 W	0-3 L
Varhaug	1-4 L	3-0 W
Vag FK	2-3 L	2-3 L
Mandalskameratene	8-4 W	0-0 D
Staal Jørpeland	2-1 W	5-2 W
Brodd	1-2 L	4-1 W
Madla	2-1 W	0-2 L
Åkra	4-1 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	5 W 0 D 3 L	3 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Stabaek 2 (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Stabaek 2

WLWLLWWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/06	Vindbjart Norway Division 3 Group 4	2-2	3-2	4	1	W
21/06	Varhaug Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-1	1-4	5	6	L
15/06	Vag FK Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-2	2-3	2	4	L
31/05	Mandalskameratene Norway Division 3 Group 4	4-2	8-4	8	2	W
26/05	Staal Jørpeland Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-0	2-1	–	–	W
14/05	Brodd Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-0	1-2	3	2	L
11/05	Flekkerøy Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-4	0-6	6	1	L
02/05	Madla Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-1	2-1	6	2	W
27/04	Haugesund 2 Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-1	2-3	8	3	L
19/04	Åkra Norway Division 3 Group 4	2-1	4-1	3	6	W

Viking 2

WLWLDDWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/06	Vag FK Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-2	2-3	8	4	L
21/06	Staal Jørpeland Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-0	5-2	10	2	W
12/06	Varhaug Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-0	3-0	10	4	W
31/05	Brodd Norway Division 3 Group 4	3-0	4-1	4	1	W
23/05	Mandalskameratene Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
14/05	Åkra Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-0	1-1	10	3	D
11/05	Madla Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-0	0-2	8	1	L
02/05	Hinna Norway Division 3 Group 4	2-0	8-0	6	2	W
26/04	Vindbjart Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-0	0-3	6	5	L
20/04	Odd II Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-0	4-0	6	0	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Stabaek 2 vs Viking 2?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Viking 2 win (53%). Probabilities: Stabaek 2 28%, draw 19%, Viking 2 53%.

How many goals are expected in Stabaek 2 vs Viking 2?

The model expects 4.41 goals (Stabaek 2 1.86 · Viking 2 2.55), with a 51% chance of under 4.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Stabaek 2 vs Viking 2?

The model gives a 63% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.