Football · Norway Division 3 Group 4 · 26/09, 15:00

Prediction: Brodd vs Vindbjart

Team pages: Brodd · Vindbjart

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.69Total

Brodd1.62

Vindbjart2.06

1X2

30% 22% 48%

Brodd Draw Vindbjart

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Brodd 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DWWDLWWLLD

Vindbjart 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

WLWWLWWWLL

Head-to-head

Brodd 2–1–3 Vindbjart (6 last)

Vindbjart2-0Brodd
Vindbjart4-3Brodd
Brodd2-1Vindbjart
Vindbjart1-1Brodd
Brodd2-0Vindbjart
Vindbjart3-1Brodd

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Brodd 1484 · Vindbjart 1530

	Brodd	Draw	Vindbjart
Our model	30%	23%	47%
Market	31%	21%	48%

Estimated total (ours) 3.69 goals · Bet365 line 3.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Vindbjart (rating 1484 vs 1530).
H2H favours Vindbjart: 3-1-2.
High corners: 14.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Brodd	Vindbjart
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 1.7	2.9 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.8	1.4 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	50/50/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	4 / 6.6	3.6 / 7.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.9	3.9 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.90

X4.33

21.85

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.88

2 (-0.5)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.95

Under 3.751.85

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.95

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 05:42

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.00 → 2.90▼	Pinn 2.91
X	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
2	1.83 → 1.85▲	Pinn 1.96 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.6% Pinnacle margin 12.5%

Time*	1	X	2
23:56 +16’	3.00	4.33	1.83
05:35 +7’	2.90▼	4.33	1.85▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
03:11 +50’	2.91	3.68	1.96

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Brodd 2–1–3 Vindbjart

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
11/04/26 Norway Division 3 Group 4	Vindbjart	2-0 HT 0-0	Brodd
30/08/25 Norway Division 3 Group 5	Vindbjart	4-3 HT 3-1	Brodd
10/05/25 Norway Division 3 Group 5	Brodd	2-1 HT 1-0	Vindbjart
05/10/24 Norway Division 3 Group 2	Vindbjart	1-1 HT 0-0	Brodd
25/05/24 Norway Division 3 Group 2	Brodd	2-0 HT 1-0	Vindbjart
30/10/21 Norway Division 3 Group 3	Vindbjart	3-1	Brodd

Standings · Norway Division 3 Group 4

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Madla	20	12	6	2	51	26	42
2	Mandalskameratene	20	11	4	5	46	33	37
3	Varhaug	21	10	6	5	40	30	36
4	Vindbjart	20	11	2	7	47	24	35
5	Flekkerøy	20	10	3	7	41	34	33
6	Viking 2	20	9	5	6	50	28	32
7	Brodd	20	8	3	9	39	40	27
8	Stabaek 2	20	8	3	9	42	46	27
9	Vag FK	20	7	2	11	29	36	23
10	Odd II	20	6	5	9	36	45	23
11	Staal Jørpeland	21	6	5	10	41	52	23
12	Haugesund 2	20	6	4	10	37	55	22
13	Hinna	20	5	5	10	36	57	20
14	Åkra	20	4	3	13	27	56	15

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Brodd	Vindbjart
Mandalskameratene	1-2 L	0-1 L
Stabaek 2	2-2 D	1-3 L
Åkra	4-1 W	6-0 W
Haugesund 2	4-0 W	4-0 W
Hinna	3-3 D	2-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 1 L	3 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Vindbjart (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Brodd

DWWDLWWLLD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Vag FK Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-1	2-2	3	12	D
12/09	Staal Jørpeland Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-2	1-3	3	6	L
05/09	Varhaug Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-1	0-3	3	3	L
30/08	Viking 2 Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-1	3-1	9	2	W
15/08	Flekkerøy Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
08/08	Mandalskameratene Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-0	1-2	–	–	L
03/08	Stabaek 2 Norway Division 3 Group 4	2-1	2-2	10	6	D
26/07	Åkra Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-0	4-1	–	–	W
28/06	Haugesund 2 Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-0	4-0	2	4	W
19/06	Hinna Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-2	3-3	16	4	D

Vindbjart

WLWWLWWWLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Mandalskameratene Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
13/09	Stabaek 2 Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-1	1-3	7	4	L
05/09	Hinna Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-0	2-0	16	5	W
30/08	Haugesund 2 Norway Division 3 Group 4	2-0	4-0	–	–	W
15/08	Åkra Norway Division 3 Group 4	3-0	6-0	4	9	W
08/08	Madla Norway Division 3 Group 4	2-1	3-4	4	3	L
03/08	Odd II Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-1	2-1	8	3	W
25/07	Hinna Norway Division 3 Group 4	2-0	7-0	6	2	W
28/06	Stabaek 2 Norway Division 3 Group 4	2-2	2-3	10	1	L
21/06	Åkra Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-0	2-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Brodd vs Vindbjart?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Vindbjart win (48%). Probabilities: Brodd 30%, draw 22%, Vindbjart 48%.

How many goals are expected in Brodd vs Vindbjart?

The model expects 3.69 goals (Brodd 1.62 · Vindbjart 2.06), with a 53% chance of under 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Brodd vs Vindbjart?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.