Football · Norway Division 3 Group 4 · 02/10, 18:00

Prediction: Hinna vs Staal Jørpeland

Team pages: Hinna · Staal Jørpeland

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.48Total

Hinna2.57

Staal Jørpeland1.91

1X2

52% 20% 28%

Hinna Draw Staal Jørpeland

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 63%

Most likely score

2-1 7%

Recent form · 10 last

Hinna 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

DLWWLWLLDW

Staal Jørpeland 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

DLLWLLLWDL

Head-to-head

Hinna 2–1–2 Staal Jørpeland (5 last)

Staal Jørpeland1-1Hinna
Hinna0-3Staal Jørpeland
Staal Jørpeland2-5Hinna
Staal Jørpeland2-0Hinna
Staal Jørpeland0-1Hinna

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Hinna 1485 · Staal Jørpeland 1466

	Hinna	Draw	Staal Jørpeland
Our model	52%	20%	28%
Market	52%	21%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 4.48 goals · Bet365 line 4.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 76%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 6.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Hinna	Staal Jørpeland
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 2.6	2 / 2.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1.4	0.7 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/30/60%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 6	1.7 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.2	3.3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.73

X4.33

23.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.95

2 (+0.75)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 4.251.85

Under 4.251.95

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 4.8

Market movement

Match winner · 6 moves · last 14:50

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.75 → 1.73▼	Bet365 1.73
X	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
2	3.20 → 3.20	Pinn 3.67 ★

See the full journey (6)

Bet365 margin 12.2% Pinnacle margin 12.6%

Time*	1	X	2
16:43 +4’	1.75	4.33	3.20
18:08 +9’	1.75	4.33	3.10▼
22:21 +6’	1.75	4.33	3.20▲
08:02 +10’	1.67▼	4.50▲	3.40▲
11:06 +6’	1.75▲	4.33▼	3.10▼
14:43 +6’	1.73▼	4.33	3.20▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
06:14 +3’	1.63	4.23	3.62
11:05 +7’	1.63▲	4.22▼	3.61▼
14:29 +21’	1.61▼	4.28▲	3.67▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Hinna 2–1–2 Staal Jørpeland

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/06/26 Norway Division 3 Group 4	Staal Jørpeland	1-1 HT 0-1	Hinna
03/10/25 Norway Division 3 Group 5	Hinna	0-3 HT 0-1	Staal Jørpeland
14/06/25 Norway Division 3 Group 5	Staal Jørpeland	2-5 HT 0-3	Hinna
12/08/21 Norway Division 3 Group 3	Staal Jørpeland	2-0 HT 0-0	Hinna
05/02/20 Europe Friendlies	Staal Jørpeland	0-1 HT 0-0	Hinna

Standings · Norway Division 3 Group 4

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Madla	21	13	6	2	57	26	45
2	Mandalskameratene	21	12	4	5	50	33	40
3	Vindbjart	21	12	2	7	49	24	38
4	Varhaug	21	10	6	5	40	30	36
5	Flekkerøy	21	11	3	7	43	35	36
6	Viking 2	21	9	5	7	51	30	32
7	Brodd	21	8	3	10	39	42	27
8	Stabaek 2	21	8	3	10	43	48	27
9	Vag FK	21	8	2	11	31	37	26
10	Staal Jørpeland	21	6	5	10	41	52	23
11	Odd II	21	6	5	10	36	49	23
12	Hinna	21	6	5	10	40	59	23
13	Haugesund 2	21	6	4	11	39	59	22
14	Åkra	21	4	3	14	27	62	15

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Hinna	Staal Jørpeland
Haugesund 2	4-2 W	3-4 L
Åkra	2-2 D	3-4 L
Odd II	2-3 L	2-1 W
Varhaug	5-3 W	2-4 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Hinna (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Hinna

DLWWLWLLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/09	Haugesund 2 Norway Division 3 Group 4	2-2	4-2	–	–	W
19/09	Åkra Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-1	2-2	11	2	D
12/09	Madla Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-4	1-4	8	5	L
05/09	Vindbjart Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-1	0-2	3	5	L
30/08	Vag FK Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-0	3-0	–	–	W
16/08	Odd II Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-1	2-3	–	–	L
08/08	Flekkerøy Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-1	3-2	4	4	W
31/07	Varhaug Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-2	5-3	–	–	W
25/07	Vindbjart Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-2	0-7	3	2	L
25/06	Staal Jørpeland Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-0	1-1	7	3	D

Staal Jørpeland

DLLWLLLWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/09	Varhaug Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-0	2-4	3	6	L
21/09	Viking 2 Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-1	2-2	–	–	D
12/09	Brodd Norway Division 3 Group 4	2-1	3-1	5	6	W
05/09	Mandalskameratene Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
30/08	Stabaek 2 Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-0	1-2	7	2	L
17/08	Haugesund 2 Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-1	3-4	2	2	L
08/08	Odd II Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-0	2-1	4	2	W
01/08	Åkra Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-1	3-4	–	–	L
25/07	Mandalskameratene Norway Division 3 Group 4	2-4	3-8	5	4	L
25/06	Hinna Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-1	1-1	3	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Hinna vs Staal Jørpeland?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Hinna win (52%). Probabilities: Hinna 52%, draw 20%, Staal Jørpeland 28%.

How many goals are expected in Hinna vs Staal Jørpeland?

The model expects 4.48 goals (Hinna 2.57 · Staal Jørpeland 1.91), with a 52% chance of over 4.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Hinna vs Staal Jørpeland?

The model gives a 63% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.