Football · Norway Division 3 Group 4 · 11/10, 15:00

Prediction: Mandalskameratene vs Stabaek 2

Team pages: Mandalskameratene · Stabaek 2

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.42Total

Mandalskameratene3.14

Stabaek 21.28

1X2

74% 13% 12%

Mandalskameratene Draw Stabaek 2

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

3-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Mandalskameratene 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

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Stabaek 2 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Mandalskameratene 0–1 Stabaek 2 (1 last)

Stabaek 28-4Mandalskameratene

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Mandalskameratene 1569 · Stabaek 2 1518

	Mandalskameratene	Draw	Stabaek 2
Our model	73%	15%	12%
Market	75%	12%	13%

Estimated total (ours) 4.42 goals · Bet365 line 4.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 81%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Mandalskameratene (rating 1569 vs 1518).
Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Mandalskameratene	Stabaek 2
Goals for / against (FT)	2.6 / 1.2	1.7 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.5	0.9 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.3 / 5.5	2.3 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.3	4 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.22

X7.50

27.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-2.25)1.85

2 (+2.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 4.251.98

Under 4.251.82

Diff.: 0.8 · xG: 3.45

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 14:22

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.55 → 1.22▼	Bet365 1.22
X	4.50 → 7.50▲	Bet365 7.50
2	4.00 → 7.00▲	Pinn 8.94 ★

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 9.5% Pinnacle margin 12.1%

Time*	1	X	2
15:55 +27’	1.55	4.50	4.00
22:44 +20’	1.57▲	4.50	3.90▼
08:00 +8’	1.36▼	5.50▲	5.00▲
14:17 +4’	1.22▼	7.50▲	7.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
04:04 +2’	1.38	4.84	5.16
04:15 +32’	1.39▲	4.85▲	5.00▼
07:52 +16’	1.25▼	5.65▲	6.26▲
09:23 +45’	1.25▼	5.70▲	6.29▲
11:20 +64’	1.25	5.72▲	6.29
14:05 +17’	1.15▼	7.38▲	8.94▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Mandalskameratene 0–0–1 Stabaek 2

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Date	Home	Score	Away
31/05/26 Norway Division 3 Group 4	Stabaek 2	8-4 HT 4-2	Mandalskameratene

Standings · Norway Division 3 Group 4

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Madla	23	14	6	3	60	28	48
2	Mandalskameratene	22	13	4	5	54	33	43
3	Flekkerøy	23	12	3	8	45	37	39
4	Vindbjart	23	12	2	9	51	31	38
5	Varhaug	23	10	6	7	42	37	36
6	Viking 2	23	10	5	8	57	34	35
7	Brodd	23	10	3	10	44	42	33
8	Vag FK	23	10	2	11	39	38	32
9	Stabaek 2	22	9	3	10	47	49	30
10	Odd II	23	8	5	10	40	50	29
11	Staal Jørpeland	23	7	5	11	45	58	26
12	Hinna	23	6	5	12	42	67	23
13	Haugesund 2	22	6	4	12	40	63	22
14	Åkra	22	4	3	15	27	66	15

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Mandalskameratene	Stabaek 2
Odd II	4-0 W	1-1 D
Vindbjart	1-0 W	3-1 W
Flekkerøy	3-1 W	1-2 L
Staal Jørpeland	2-0 W	2-1 W
Varhaug	0-2 L	0-2 L
Vag FK	2-1 W	2-0 W
Brodd	2-1 W	2-2 D
Viking 2	0-4 L	1-3 L
Record vs common	6 W 0 D 2 L	3 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Mandalskameratene (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Mandalskameratene

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Åkra Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-0	4-0	6	3	W
26/09	Odd II Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-0	4-0	–	–	W
19/09	Vindbjart Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
12/09	Flekkerøy Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-0	3-1	–	–	W
05/09	Staal Jørpeland Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-0	2-0	–	–	W
30/08	Varhaug Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-0	0-2	–	–	L
15/08	Vag FK Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-1	2-1	7	5	W
08/08	Brodd Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-0	2-1	–	–	W
02/08	Viking 2 Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-2	0-4	4	3	L
25/07	Staal Jørpeland Norway Division 3 Group 4	4-2	8-3	5	4	W

Stabaek 2

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/10	Haugesund 2 Norway Division 3 Group 4	3-1	4-1	2	3	W
27/09	Flekkerøy Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-1	1-2	4	4	L
21/09	Odd II Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-0	1-1	4	5	D
13/09	Vindbjart Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-1	3-1	4	4	W
06/09	Viking 2 Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-3	1-3	4	3	L
30/08	Staal Jørpeland Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-0	2-1	4	2	W
17/08	Varhaug Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-2	0-2	6	7	L
09/08	Vag FK Norway Division 3 Group 4	2-0	2-0	6	2	W
03/08	Brodd Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-2	2-2	2	6	D
25/07	Viking 2 Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-0	1-1	3	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Mandalskameratene vs Stabaek 2?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Mandalskameratene win (74%). Probabilities: Mandalskameratene 74%, draw 13%, Stabaek 2 12%.

How many goals are expected in Mandalskameratene vs Stabaek 2?

The model expects 4.42 goals (Mandalskameratene 3.14 · Stabaek 2 1.28), with a 51% chance of under 4.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Mandalskameratene vs Stabaek 2?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 3-1.