Football · Norway Division 3 Group 6 · 17/10, 14:00

Prediction: Drøbak/Frogn vs Elverum

Team pages: Drøbak/Frogn · Elverum

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.28Total

Drøbak/Frogn1.97

Elverum2.31

1X2

33% 21% 46%

Drøbak/Frogn Draw Elverum

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 63%

Most likely score

1-2 7%

Recent form · 10 last

Drøbak/Frogn 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

LWLLWDWWWW

Elverum 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

WWWWDLWLWW

Head-to-head

Drøbak/Frogn 0–1 Elverum (1 last)

Elverum1-0Drøbak/Frogn

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Drøbak/Frogn 1535 · Elverum 1542

	Drøbak/Frogn	Draw	Elverum
Our model	33%	21%	46%
Market	33%	21%	46%

Estimated total (ours) 4.28 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 77%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 5.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Drøbak/Frogn	Elverum
Goals for / against (FT)	2.8 / 1.6	3.1 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1.4 / 0.4	1.6 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	70/30/0%	70/10/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.2 / 3.2	2.7 / 6.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.2	2.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.70

X4.33

21.95

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.98

2 (-0.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.81

Under 3.751.90

Diff.: 0.85 · xG: 4.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.70 → 2.70	Pinn 3.01 ★
X	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
2	1.95 → 1.95	Bet365 1.95

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4% Pinnacle margin 12.6%

Time*	1	X	2
19:05 +5’	2.70	4.33	1.95

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
03:11 +56’	3.01	3.80	1.88

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Drøbak/Frogn 0–0–1 Elverum

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 Norway Division 3 Group 6	Elverum	1-0 HT 0-0	Drøbak/Frogn

Standings · Norway Division 3 Group 6

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Lillehammer	23	18	2	3	84	32	56
2	Elverum	23	15	2	6	65	39	47
3	Rade IL	23	13	4	6	72	40	43
4	Gjøvik-Lyn	23	13	2	8	43	21	41
5	Drøbak/Frogn	23	11	5	7	52	32	38
6	Ørn Horten	23	10	5	8	44	36	35
7	Sandefjord 2	23	10	3	10	54	48	33
8	Oppsal	23	10	3	10	40	37	33
9	Rælingen	23	9	5	9	40	55	32
10	Lyn 1896 II	23	9	4	10	50	51	31
11	Sarpsborg 2	23	8	5	10	51	54	29
12	Fram	23	7	5	11	43	49	26
13	Brumunddal	23	3	3	17	25	92	12
14	Bjørkelangen	23	1	0	22	17	94	3

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Drøbak/Frogn	Elverum
Oppsal	2-1 W	4-0 W
Bjørkelangen	6-0 W	5-0 W
Rælingen	2-2 D	4-1 W
Lyn 1896 II	4-1 W	4-3 W
Fram	3-4 L	3-1 W
Rade IL	2-3 L	2-4 L
Sandefjord 2	1-0 W	3-4 L
Lillehammer	1-2 L	4-3 W
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 3 L	6 W 0 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Drøbak/Frogn

LWLLWDWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Oppsal Norway Division 3 Group 6	1-0	2-1	3	1	W
03/10	Sarpsborg 2 Norway Division 3 Group 6	1-1	4-1	–	–	W
26/09	Bjørkelangen Norway Division 3 Group 6	2-0	6-0	–	–	W
19/09	Gjøvik-Lyn Norway Division 3 Group 6	2-0	3-2	–	–	W
12/09	Rælingen Norway Division 3 Group 6	1-1	2-2	0	6	D
07/09	Lyn 1896 II Norway Division 3 Group 6	2-0	4-1	1	4	W
30/08	Fram Norway Division 3 Group 6	2-1	3-4	–	–	L
15/08	Rade IL Norway Division 3 Group 6	2-1	2-3	–	–	L
10/08	Sandefjord 2 Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-0	1-0	5	2	W
01/08	Lillehammer Norway Division 3 Group 6	1-0	1-2	7	3	L

Elverum

WWWWDLWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/10	Lyn 1896 II Norway Division 3 Group 6	3-1	4-3	–	–	W
03/10	Bjørkelangen Norway Division 3 Group 6	1-0	5-0	–	–	W
26/09	Sandefjord 2 Norway Division 3 Group 6	2-3	3-4	6	3	L
19/09	Rælingen Norway Division 3 Group 6	1-0	4-1	7	2	W
12/09	Rade IL Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-1	2-4	7	2	L
05/09	Brumunddal Norway Division 3 Group 6	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
30/08	Lillehammer Norway Division 3 Group 6	4-3	4-3	–	–	W
15/08	Oppsal Norway Division 3 Group 6	3-0	4-0	–	–	W
08/08	Ørn Horten Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
01/08	Fram Norway Division 3 Group 6	1-0	3-1	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Drøbak/Frogn vs Elverum?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Elverum win (46%). Probabilities: Drøbak/Frogn 33%, draw 21%, Elverum 46%.

How many goals are expected in Drøbak/Frogn vs Elverum?

The model expects 4.28 goals (Drøbak/Frogn 1.97 · Elverum 2.31), with a 54% chance of over 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Drøbak/Frogn vs Elverum?

The model gives a 63% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.