Football · Norway Division 3 Group 2 · 09/10, 18:15

Prediction: Herd vs Spjelkavik

Team pages: Herd · Spjelkavik

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.36Total

Herd2.44

Spjelkavik1.92

1X2

49% 21% 30%

Herd Draw Spjelkavik

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 63%

Most likely score

2-1 7%

Recent form · 10 last

Herd 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

LLLWLLDLDL

Spjelkavik 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

WWLWWLLLWL

Head-to-head

Herd 2–1–3 Spjelkavik (6 last)

Spjelkavik1-3Herd
Herd0-2Spjelkavik
Spjelkavik5-0Herd
Herd1-4Spjelkavik
Spjelkavik0-0Herd
Herd1-0Spjelkavik

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Herd 1437 · Spjelkavik 1461

	Herd	Draw	Spjelkavik
Our model	49%	20%	30%
Market	49%	21%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 4.36 goals · Bet365 line 4.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 77%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Spjelkavik: 3-1-2.
High corners: 12.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 4.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Herd	Spjelkavik
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 2.6	2.2 / 2.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1.2	1 / 1.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	40/10/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 4.4	2.6 / 8.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0.1	1.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.83

X4.20

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.90

2 (+0.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 4.252.00

Under 4.251.80

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 4.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 08:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.83 → 1.83	Bet365 1.83
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
07:51 +20’	1.83	4.20	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Herd 2–1–3 Spjelkavik

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/04/26 Norway Division 3 Group 2	Spjelkavik	1-3 HT 0-0	Herd
05/10/19 Norway Division 3 Group 1	Herd	0-2	Spjelkavik
23/04/19 Norway Division 3 Group 1	Spjelkavik	5-0	Herd
27/10/18 Norway Division 3 Group 1	Herd	1-4	Spjelkavik
07/07/18 Norway Division 3 Group 1	Spjelkavik	0-0	Herd
14/10/17 Norway Division 3 Group 4	Herd	1-0	Spjelkavik

Standings · Norway Division 3 Group 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Volda	22	15	4	3	59	24	49
2	Strindheim	22	14	4	4	58	30	46
3	Byåsen	22	12	3	7	52	40	39
4	Melhus	22	11	5	6	52	28	38
5	Molde 2	22	9	5	8	61	69	32
6	Rosenborg 2	22	9	4	9	50	40	31
7	Herd	22	8	5	9	47	44	29
8	Spjelkavik	22	8	4	10	41	48	28
9	Nardo	21	8	2	11	47	46	26
10	Ranheim 2	22	7	5	10	58	71	26
11	NTNUI	22	6	6	10	34	51	24
12	Kvik Trondheim	22	6	4	12	32	54	22
13	Orkla	22	5	5	12	40	62	20
14	Aalesunds FK 2	21	6	2	13	38	62	20

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Herd	Spjelkavik
Molde 2	2-6 L	3-1 W
Byåsen	1-6 L	3-2 W
Orkla	2-2 D	5-2 W
Melhus	1-4 L	1-0 W
Ranheim 2	9-0 W	2-5 L
Aalesunds FK 2	0-3 L	2-3 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 4 L	4 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Spjelkavik (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Herd

LLLWLLDLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/10	Molde 2 Norway Division 3 Group 2	2-1	2-6	2	1	L
26/09	Kvik Trondheim Norway Division 3 Group 2	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
19/09	Byåsen Norway Division 3 Group 2	0-5	1-6	6	2	L
12/09	Orkla Norway Division 3 Group 2	1-1	2-2	5	7	D
05/09	Melhus Norway Division 3 Group 2	0-1	1-4	8	1	L
30/08	NTNUI Norway Division 3 Group 2	0-2	1-2	4	3	L
15/08	Ranheim 2 Norway Division 3 Group 2	1-0	9-0	6	2	W
10/08	Aalesunds FK 2 Norway Division 3 Group 2	0-1	0-3	–	–	L
31/07	Volda Norway Division 3 Group 2	0-0	0-1	2	2	L
25/07	Melhus Norway Division 3 Group 2	0-1	0-2	2	5	L

Spjelkavik

WWLWWLLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
04/10	Ranheim 2 Norway Division 3 Group 2	1-2	2-5	9	1	L
26/09	Melhus Norway Division 3 Group 2	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
21/09	Rosenborg 2 Norway Division 3 Group 2	0-2	0-4	6	1	L
14/09	Aalesunds FK 2 Norway Division 3 Group 2	1-3	2-3	10	3	L
05/09	Nardo Norway Division 3 Group 2	1-2	2-4	11	2	L
31/08	Molde 2 Norway Division 3 Group 2	2-1	3-1	6	2	W
15/08	Orkla Norway Division 3 Group 2	2-2	5-2	–	–	W
08/08	Strindheim Norway Division 3 Group 2	0-2	0-4	–	–	L
01/08	Byåsen Norway Division 3 Group 2	1-0	3-2	7	3	W
25/07	Nardo Norway Division 3 Group 2	1-0	4-2	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Herd vs Spjelkavik?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Herd win (49%). Probabilities: Herd 49%, draw 21%, Spjelkavik 30%.

How many goals are expected in Herd vs Spjelkavik?

The model expects 4.36 goals (Herd 2.44 · Spjelkavik 1.92), with a 52% chance of under 4.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Herd vs Spjelkavik?

The model gives a 63% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.