Football · Norway Division 3 Group 2 · 17/10, 15:30

Prediction: Nardo vs Herd

Team pages: Nardo · Herd

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.37Total

Nardo2.86

Herd1.51

1X2

65% 17% 18%

Nardo Draw Herd

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

2-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Nardo 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

LWLLWWWWLW

Herd 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LLWLLDLDLW

Head-to-head

Nardo 1–1–1 Herd (3 last)

Herd4-1Nardo
Herd1-2Nardo
Nardo0-0Herd

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Nardo 1530 · Herd 1456

	Nardo	Draw	Herd
Our model	65%	18%	18%
Market	65%	17%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 4.37 goals · Bet365 line 4 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 78%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Nardo (rating 1530 vs 1456).
Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Nardo	Herd
Goals for / against (FT)	2.7 / 1.8	1.8 / 2.5
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.8	0.5 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 3.9	1.9 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0	2.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.38

X5.25

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.95

2 (+1.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 41.88

Under 41.93

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 4.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:37

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.38 → 1.38	Bet365 1.38
X	5.25 → 5.25	Bet365 5.25
2	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
19:28 +9’	1.38	5.25	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Nardo 1–1–1 Herd

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/06/26 Norway Division 3 Group 2	Herd	4-1 HT 1-0	Nardo
16/08/14 Norway Division 2 Group 2	Herd	1-2 HT 0-0	Nardo
03/05/14 Norway Division 2 Group 2	Nardo	0-0 HT 0-0	Herd

Standings · Norway Division 3 Group 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Volda	23	15	4	4	59	25	49
2	Strindheim	23	15	4	4	63	31	49
3	Byåsen	23	12	3	8	53	43	39
4	Melhus	23	11	5	7	52	29	38
5	Molde 2	23	10	5	8	64	71	35
6	Herd	23	9	5	9	49	45	32
7	Rosenborg 2	23	9	4	10	51	45	31
8	Nardo	22	9	2	11	50	47	29
9	Spjelkavik	23	8	4	11	42	50	28
10	NTNUI	23	7	6	10	35	51	27
11	Ranheim 2	23	7	5	11	60	74	26
12	Kvik Trondheim	23	7	4	12	33	54	25
13	Aalesunds FK 2	22	7	2	13	39	62	23
14	Orkla	23	5	5	13	40	63	20

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Nardo	Herd
Byåsen	3-1 W	1-6 L
NTNUI	5-2 W	1-2 L
Ranheim 2	4-1 W	9-0 W
Spjelkavik	4-2 W	2-1 W
Melhus	1-3 L	1-4 L
Volda	0-2 L	0-1 L
Molde 2	3-0 W	2-6 L
Record vs common	5 W 0 D 2 L	2 W 0 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Nardo (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Nardo

LWLLWWWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Byåsen Norway Division 3 Group 2	1-1	3-1	1	5	W
03/10	Strindheim Norway Division 3 Group 2	0-1	0-1	6	4	L
26/09	NTNUI Norway Division 3 Group 2	2-1	5-2	–	–	W
21/09	Ranheim 2 Norway Division 3 Group 2	2-0	4-1	6	3	W
13/09	Rosenborg 2 Norway Division 3 Group 2	2-1	5-2	4	1	W
05/09	Spjelkavik Norway Division 3 Group 2	2-1	4-2	5	2	W
15/08	Melhus Norway Division 3 Group 2	1-1	1-3	3	5	L
08/08	Volda Norway Division 3 Group 2	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
03/08	Molde 2 Norway Division 3 Group 2	2-0	3-0	2	3	W
25/07	Spjelkavik Norway Division 3 Group 2	0-1	2-4	–	–	L

Herd

LLWLLDLDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/10	Spjelkavik Norway Division 3 Group 2	1-0	2-1	9	6	W
02/10	Molde 2 Norway Division 3 Group 2	2-1	2-6	2	1	L
26/09	Kvik Trondheim Norway Division 3 Group 2	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
19/09	Byåsen Norway Division 3 Group 2	0-5	1-6	6	2	L
12/09	Orkla Norway Division 3 Group 2	1-1	2-2	5	7	D
05/09	Melhus Norway Division 3 Group 2	0-1	1-4	8	1	L
30/08	NTNUI Norway Division 3 Group 2	0-2	1-2	4	3	L
15/08	Ranheim 2 Norway Division 3 Group 2	1-0	9-0	6	2	W
10/08	Aalesunds FK 2 Norway Division 3 Group 2	0-1	0-3	–	–	L
31/07	Volda Norway Division 3 Group 2	0-0	0-1	2	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Nardo vs Herd?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Nardo win (65%). Probabilities: Nardo 65%, draw 17%, Herd 18%.

How many goals are expected in Nardo vs Herd?

The model expects 4.37 goals (Nardo 2.86 · Herd 1.51), with a 52% chance of over 4 goals.

Will both teams score in Nardo vs Herd?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.