Football · Norway Division 3 Group 4 · 30/08, 19:00

Prediction: Hinna vs Vag FK

Team pages: Hinna · Vag FK

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.78Total

Hinna1.9

Vag FK1.88

1X2

40% 22% 39%

Hinna Draw Vag FK

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Hinna 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

DLLLDDLWWL

Vag FK 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LWLWLWDLLL

Head-to-head

Hinna 0–1–2 Vag FK (3 last)

Vag FK3-0Hinna
Vag FK4-0Hinna
Hinna2-2Vag FK

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Hinna 1448 · Vag FK 1473

	Hinna	Draw	Vag FK
Our model	39%	23%	38%
Market	40%	21%	39%

Estimated total (ours) 3.78 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Vag FK: 2-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Hinna	Vag FK
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 2.9	1.2 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1.1	0.8 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/10/60%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 4.1	1.4 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.1	3.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.25

X4.33

22.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.85

2 (0)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.80

Under 3.52.00

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:31

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25
X	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
2	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11%

Time*	1	X	2
15:17 +14’	2.25	4.33	2.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Hinna 0–1–2 Vag FK

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 Norway Division 3 Group 4	Vag FK	3-0 HT 1-0	Hinna
30/08/25 Norway Division 3 Group 5	Vag FK	4-0 HT 1-0	Hinna
10/05/25 Norway Division 3 Group 5	Hinna	2-2 HT 2-2	Vag FK

Standings · Norway Division 3 Group 4

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Madla	16	9	5	2	40	24	32
2	Vindbjart	16	9	2	5	40	20	29
3	Flekkerøy	16	9	2	5	35	27	29
4	Mandalskameratene	16	8	4	4	40	30	28
5	Varhaug	16	7	5	4	30	23	26
6	Viking 2	16	7	4	5	40	22	25
7	Brodd	16	7	2	7	33	31	23
8	Haugesund 2	16	6	3	7	36	40	21
9	Stabaek 2	16	6	2	8	35	40	20
10	Staal Jørpeland	16	5	4	7	33	41	19
11	Vag FK	16	5	1	10	21	29	16
12	Odd II	16	4	4	8	26	39	16
13	Hinna	16	4	4	8	30	49	16
14	Åkra	16	4	2	10	21	45	14

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Hinna	Vag FK
Odd II	2-3 L	1-1 D
Flekkerøy	3-2 W	0-2 L
Varhaug	5-3 W	1-0 W
Staal Jørpeland	1-1 D	0-1 L
Madla	0-3 L	2-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Hinna (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Hinna

DLLLDDLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Odd II Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-1	2-3	–	–	L
08/08	Flekkerøy Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-1	3-2	4	4	W
31/07	Varhaug Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-2	5-3	–	–	W
25/07	Vindbjart Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-2	0-7	3	2	L
25/06	Staal Jørpeland Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-0	1-1	7	3	D
19/06	Brodd Norway Division 3 Group 4	2-1	3-3	1	4	D
14/06	Flekkerøy Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-1	3-4	3	2	L
29/05	Varhaug Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-1	0-1	4	3	L
25/05	Madla Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-1	0-3	7	4	L
14/05	Haugesund 2 Norway Division 3 Group 4	2-1	2-2	–	–	D

Vag FK

LWLWLWDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Mandalskameratene Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-1	1-2	4	5	L
09/08	Stabaek 2 Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-2	0-2	3	2	L
01/08	Madla Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-0	2-3	6	5	L
27/07	Odd II Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-1	1-1	3	6	D
25/06	Viking 2 Norway Division 3 Group 4	2-0	3-2	3	4	W
21/06	Mandalskameratene Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-0	1-2	–	–	L
15/06	Stabaek 2 Norway Division 3 Group 4	2-1	3-2	9	4	W
30/05	Staal Jørpeland Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-0	0-1	9	2	L
25/05	Varhaug Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-0	1-0	7	4	W
16/05	Flekkerøy Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-0	0-2	7	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Hinna vs Vag FK?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Hinna win (40%). Probabilities: Hinna 40%, draw 22%, Vag FK 39%.

How many goals are expected in Hinna vs Vag FK?

The model expects 3.78 goals (Hinna 1.9 · Vag FK 1.88), with a 52% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Hinna vs Vag FK?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.