Football · Norway Division 3 Group 4 · 26/09, 15:00

Prediction: Viking 2 vs Vag FK

Team pages: Viking 2 · Vag FK

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.22Total

Viking 22.88

Vag FK1.34

1X2

69% 17% 15%

Viking 2 Draw Vag FK

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

2-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Viking 2 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WLDWLDLWWD

Vag FK 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LWDLLLLWWD

Head-to-head

Viking 2 2–1 Vag FK (3 last)

Vag FK3-2Viking 2
Vag FK1-2Viking 2
Viking 23-2Vag FK

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Viking 2 1526 · Vag FK 1464

	Viking 2	Draw	Vag FK
Our model	69%	17%	15%
Market	69%	16%	15%

Estimated total (ours) 4.22 goals · Bet365 line 4.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 74%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Viking 2 (rating 1526 vs 1464).
H2H favours Viking 2: 2-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Viking 2	Vag FK
Goals for / against (FT)	2.5 / 1.7	1.6 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.5	1 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 6	1.3 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.1	5.3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.30

X5.50

26.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.75)1.85

2 (+1.75)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 4.251.90

Under 4.251.90

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.85

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 05:42

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.38 → 1.30▼	Bet365 1.30
X	5.25 → 5.50▲	Pinn 5.78
2	5.00 → 6.00▲	Pinn 7.15 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.8% Pinnacle margin 13.2%

Time*	1	X	2
13:43 +20’	1.38	5.25	5.00
05:04 +38’	1.30▼	5.50▲	6.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
03:13 +48’	1.22	5.78	7.15

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Viking 2 2–0–1 Vag FK

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/06/26 Norway Division 3 Group 4	Vag FK	3-2 HT 2-0	Viking 2
18/08/25 Norway Division 3 Group 5	Vag FK	1-2 HT 0-1	Viking 2
03/05/25 Norway Division 3 Group 5	Viking 2	3-2 HT 1-0	Vag FK

Standings · Norway Division 3 Group 4

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Madla	20	12	6	2	51	26	42
2	Mandalskameratene	20	11	4	5	46	33	37
3	Varhaug	21	10	6	5	40	30	36
4	Vindbjart	20	11	2	7	47	24	35
5	Flekkerøy	20	10	3	7	41	34	33
6	Viking 2	20	9	5	6	50	28	32
7	Brodd	20	8	3	9	39	40	27
8	Stabaek 2	20	8	3	9	42	46	27
9	Vag FK	20	7	2	11	29	36	23
10	Odd II	20	6	5	9	36	45	23
11	Staal Jørpeland	21	6	5	10	41	52	23
12	Haugesund 2	20	6	4	10	37	55	22
13	Hinna	20	5	5	10	36	57	20
14	Åkra	20	4	3	13	27	56	15

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Viking 2	Vag FK
Stabaek 2	3-1 W	0-2 L
Brodd	1-3 L	2-2 D
Madla	1-1 D	2-3 L
Haugesund 2	2-4 L	3-0 W
Mandalskameratene	4-0 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Viking 2 (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Viking 2

WLDWLDLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/09	Staal Jørpeland Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-0	2-2	–	–	D
14/09	Varhaug Norway Division 3 Group 4	2-0	4-0	6	5	W
06/09	Stabaek 2 Norway Division 3 Group 4	3-1	3-1	9	3	W
30/08	Brodd Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-1	1-3	4	2	L
17/08	Madla Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-0	1-1	2	5	D
10/08	Haugesund 2 Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-1	2-4	3	4	L
02/08	Mandalskameratene Norway Division 3 Group 4	2-0	4-0	6	3	W
25/07	Stabaek 2 Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-0	1-1	6	4	D
25/06	Vag FK Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-2	2-3	8	4	L
21/06	Staal Jørpeland Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-0	5-2	10	2	W

Vag FK

LWDLLLLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/09	Brodd Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-0	2-2	4	12	D
12/09	Haugesund 2 Norway Division 3 Group 4	2-0	3-0	–	–	W
05/09	Åkra Norway Division 3 Group 4	2-0	3-2	–	–	W
30/08	Hinna Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-0	0-3	–	–	L
15/08	Mandalskameratene Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-1	1-2	4	5	L
09/08	Stabaek 2 Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-2	0-2	3	2	L
01/08	Madla Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-0	2-3	6	5	L
27/07	Odd II Norway Division 3 Group 4	1-1	1-1	3	6	D
25/06	Viking 2 Norway Division 3 Group 4	2-0	3-2	3	4	W
21/06	Mandalskameratene Norway Division 3 Group 4	0-0	1-2	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Viking 2 vs Vag FK?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Viking 2 win (69%). Probabilities: Viking 2 69%, draw 17%, Vag FK 15%.

How many goals are expected in Viking 2 vs Vag FK?

The model expects 4.22 goals (Viking 2 2.88 · Vag FK 1.34), with a 52% chance of under 4.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Viking 2 vs Vag FK?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.