Football · Norway Division 3 Group 6 · 19/09, 15:00

Prediction: Ørn Horten vs Oppsal

Team pages: Ørn Horten · Oppsal

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.34Total

Ørn Horten1.97

Oppsal1.37

1X2

51% 22% 27%

Ørn Horten Draw Oppsal

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Ørn Horten 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LLWWLLWWLD

Oppsal 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WLWDDWLLLW

Head-to-head

Ørn Horten 2–1–3 Oppsal (6 last)

Oppsal0-2Ørn Horten
Ørn Horten1-0Oppsal
Oppsal2-1Ørn Horten
Ørn Horten0-2Oppsal
Oppsal2-1Ørn Horten
Oppsal1-1Ørn Horten

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ørn Horten 1491 · Oppsal 1480

	Ørn Horten	Draw	Oppsal
Our model	51%	24%	26%
Market	52%	21%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 3.34 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Oppsal: 3-1-2.
High corners: 11.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ørn Horten	Oppsal
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 2.1	2 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 1	0.9 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	50/0/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 5.7	2.3 / 5.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0	2.9 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.73

X4.33

23.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.98

2 (+0.75)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.93

Under 3.51.88

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.9

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 05:35

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.91 → 1.73▼	Bet365 1.73
X	4.10 → 4.33▲	Bet365 4.33
2	2.88 → 3.30▲	Pinn 3.57 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.3% Pinnacle margin 12.6%

Time*	1	X	2
22:07 +5’	1.91	4.10	2.88
05:28 +7’	1.73▼	4.33▲	3.30▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
03:30 +125’	1.71	3.84	3.57

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Ørn Horten 2–1–3 Oppsal

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/05/26 Norway Division 3 Group 6	Oppsal	0-2 HT 0-1	Ørn Horten
27/09/25 Norway Division 3 Group 6	Ørn Horten	1-0 HT 0-0	Oppsal
24/05/25 Norway Division 3 Group 6	Oppsal	2-1 HT 1-1	Ørn Horten
16/10/21 Norway Division 3 Group 2	Ørn Horten	0-2	Oppsal
20/01/18 Europe Friendlies	Oppsal	2-1 HT 1-0	Ørn Horten
26/08/17 Norway Division 3 Group 1	Oppsal	1-1	Ørn Horten

Standings · Norway Division 3 Group 6

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Lillehammer	19	14	2	3	67	28	44
2	Rade IL	19	12	2	5	68	34	38
3	Elverum	19	12	2	5	49	31	38
4	Gjøvik-Lyn	19	11	2	6	27	14	35
5	Ørn Horten	19	8	5	6	36	31	29
6	Lyn 1896 II	19	9	2	8	45	44	29
7	Rælingen	19	8	4	7	37	45	28
8	Oppsal	19	8	3	8	33	30	27
9	Drøbak/Frogn	19	7	5	7	37	28	26
10	Sandefjord 2	19	8	2	9	47	41	26
11	Sarpsborg 2	19	7	3	9	44	45	24
12	Fram	19	6	3	10	35	43	21
13	Brumunddal	19	3	3	13	23	80	12
14	Bjørkelangen	19	1	0	18	15	69	3

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ørn Horten	Oppsal
Sandefjord 2	1-1 D	1-2 L
Sarpsborg 2	3-4 L	2-2 D
Bjørkelangen	5-2 W	1-0 W
Elverum	0-1 L	0-4 L
Rælingen	0-2 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 3 L	1 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Ørn Horten (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ørn Horten

LLWWLLWWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Sandefjord 2 Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-1	1-1	–	–	D
07/09	Sarpsborg 2 Norway Division 3 Group 6	2-2	3-4	8	4	L
30/08	Bjørkelangen Norway Division 3 Group 6	4-2	5-2	–	–	W
15/08	Gjøvik-Lyn Norway Division 3 Group 6	1-0	1-0	3	5	W
08/08	Elverum Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
01/08	Rælingen Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-0	0-2	5	7	L
27/07	Sarpsborg 2 Norway Division 3 Group 6	2-2	3-2	7	0	W
27/06	Sandefjord 2 Norway Division 3 Group 6	1-2	4-3	4	3	W
20/06	Gjøvik-Lyn Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-0	0-3	7	4	L
13/06	Elverum Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-1	0-3	–	–	L

Oppsal

WLWDDWLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Fram Norway Division 3 Group 6	2-1	6-3	5	2	W
05/09	Sandefjord 2 Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-1	1-2	1	2	L
30/08	Rælingen Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-1	0-1	6	5	L
15/08	Elverum Norway Division 3 Group 6	0-3	0-4	–	–	L
08/08	Bjørkelangen Norway Division 3 Group 6	1-0	1-0	8	2	W
03/08	Sarpsborg 2 Norway Division 3 Group 6	2-0	2-2	3	4	D
27/07	Lyn 1896 II Norway Division 3 Group 6	1-0	2-2	5	4	D
27/06	Rælingen Norway Division 3 Group 6	1-0	3-1	6	2	W
20/06	Elverum Norway Division 3 Group 6	1-2	1-2	–	–	L
13/06	Sandefjord 2 Norway Division 3 Group 6	1-2	4-3	13	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ørn Horten vs Oppsal?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Ørn Horten win (51%). Probabilities: Ørn Horten 51%, draw 22%, Oppsal 27%.

How many goals are expected in Ørn Horten vs Oppsal?

The model expects 3.34 goals (Ørn Horten 1.97 · Oppsal 1.37), with a 54% chance of under 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Ørn Horten vs Oppsal?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.