Football · Norway Division 3 Group 2 · 03/10, 14:00

Prediction: Nardo vs Strindheim

Team pages: Nardo · Strindheim

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.15Total

Nardo1.81

Strindheim2.34

1X2

30% 20% 50%

Nardo Draw Strindheim

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

1-2 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Nardo 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

WLLWLLWWWW

Strindheim 8-2-0 (W-D-L)

WDWWWWWWDW

Head-to-head

Nardo 4–2 Strindheim (6 last)

Strindheim4-1Nardo
Nardo2-4Strindheim
Strindheim1-2Nardo
Nardo3-1Strindheim
Strindheim2-3Nardo
Nardo3-2Strindheim

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Nardo 1531 · Strindheim 1591

	Nardo	Draw	Strindheim
Our model	29%	21%	49%
Market	30%	20%	50%

Estimated total (ours) 4.15 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 75%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Strindheim (rating 1531 vs 1591).
H2H favours Nardo: 4-0-2.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Nardo	Strindheim
Goals for / against (FT)	2.9 / 2.1	2.9 / 0.5
Goals for / against (HT)	1.4 / 0.8	1.5 / 0
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/20/20%	70/30/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 3.7	3.2 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0	1.5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.00

X4.50

21.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.95

2 (-0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.80

Under 3.752.00

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 4.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
X	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
2	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
13:12 +6’	3.00	4.50	1.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Nardo 4–0–2 Strindheim

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/05/26 Norway Division 3 Group 2	Strindheim	4-1 HT 2-1	Nardo
10/04/24 Norway Cup	Nardo	2-4 HT 1-2	Strindheim
22/10/23 Norway Division 3 Group 5	Strindheim	1-2 HT 0-1	Nardo
13/05/23 Norway Division 3 Group 5	Nardo	3-1 HT 2-1	Strindheim
23/10/22 Norway Division 3 Group 5	Strindheim	2-3 HT 1-1	Nardo
14/05/22 Norway Division 3 Group 5	Nardo	3-2 HT 1-1	Strindheim

Standings · Norway Division 3 Group 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Volda	21	14	4	3	55	23	46
2	Strindheim	21	13	4	4	57	30	43
3	Byåsen	21	11	3	7	50	39	36
4	Melhus	21	10	5	6	48	27	35
5	Rosenborg 2	21	9	4	8	49	36	31
6	Herd	21	8	5	8	45	38	29
7	Molde 2	21	8	5	8	55	67	29
8	Spjelkavik	21	8	4	9	39	43	28
9	Nardo	20	8	2	10	47	45	26
10	Ranheim 2	21	6	5	10	53	69	23
11	Kvik Trondheim	21	6	4	11	31	52	22
12	NTNUI	21	5	6	10	31	50	21
13	Orkla	21	5	5	11	39	58	20
14	Aalesunds FK 2	20	6	2	12	37	59	20

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Nardo	Strindheim
NTNUI	5-2 W	4-0 W
Rosenborg 2	5-2 W	1-1 D
Spjelkavik	4-2 W	4-0 W
Melhus	1-3 L	1-0 W
Volda	0-2 L	2-2 D
Molde 2	3-0 W	10-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 2 L	4 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Strindheim (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Nardo

WLLWLLWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	NTNUI Norway Division 3 Group 2	2-1	5-2	–	–	W
21/09	Ranheim 2 Norway Division 3 Group 2	2-0	4-1	6	3	W
13/09	Rosenborg 2 Norway Division 3 Group 2	2-1	5-2	4	1	W
05/09	Spjelkavik Norway Division 3 Group 2	2-1	4-2	5	2	W
15/08	Melhus Norway Division 3 Group 2	1-1	1-3	3	5	L
08/08	Volda Norway Division 3 Group 2	0-1	0-2	–	–	L
03/08	Molde 2 Norway Division 3 Group 2	2-0	3-0	2	3	W
25/07	Spjelkavik Norway Division 3 Group 2	0-1	2-4	–	–	L
27/06	Ranheim 2 Norway Division 3 Group 2	3-2	3-5	–	–	L
20/06	NTNUI Norway Division 3 Group 2	0-0	2-0	2	3	W

Strindheim

WDWWWWWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/09	Molde 2 Norway Division 3 Group 2	5-0	10-0	–	–	W
19/09	Volda Norway Division 3 Group 2	0-0	2-2	–	–	D
12/09	Kvik Trondheim Norway Division 3 Group 2	0-0	1-0	11	3	W
05/09	Byåsen Norway Division 3 Group 2	2-0	2-1	6	4	W
30/08	Melhus Norway Division 3 Group 2	1-0	1-0	–	–	W
15/08	NTNUI Norway Division 3 Group 2	3-0	4-0	3	1	W
08/08	Spjelkavik Norway Division 3 Group 2	2-0	4-0	–	–	W
03/08	Aalesunds FK 2 Norway Division 3 Group 2	1-0	2-0	11	0	W
26/07	Rosenborg 2 Norway Division 3 Group 2	0-0	1-1	3	1	D
25/06	Melhus Norway Division 3 Group 2	1-0	2-1	2	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Nardo vs Strindheim?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Strindheim win (50%). Probabilities: Nardo 30%, draw 20%, Strindheim 50%.

How many goals are expected in Nardo vs Strindheim?

The model expects 4.15 goals (Nardo 1.81 · Strindheim 2.34), with a 53% chance of over 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Nardo vs Strindheim?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.