Football · Norway Division 3 Group 2 · 24/10, 14:00

Prediction: Orkla vs Nardo

Team pages: Orkla · Nardo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.8Total

Orkla1.4

Nardo3.4

1X2

10% 12% 78%

Orkla Draw Nardo

Markets

Over 4.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

1-3 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Orkla 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

LLDWDDLLLL

Nardo 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

LLWWWWLWWD

Head-to-head

Orkla 0–1–5 Nardo (6 last)

Nardo3-0Orkla
Orkla0-0Nardo
Nardo4-0Orkla
Orkla1-3Nardo
Nardo4-1Orkla
Orkla2-4Nardo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Orkla 1422 · Nardo 1562

	Orkla	Draw	Nardo
Our model	12%	14%	75%
Market	9%	11%	80%

Estimated total (ours) 4.8 goals · Bet365 line 5 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 86%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Nardo (rating 1422 vs 1562).
H2H favours Nardo: 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Orkla	Nardo
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 3.6	3.6 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 1.8	1.8 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 3.3	1.6 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0	3.1 / 0

Odds Bet365

110.00

X8.50

21.14

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+2.75)1.95

2 (-2.75)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 51.88

Under 51.93

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 5.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:34

	Bet365	Best now
1	10.00 → 10.00	Bet365 10.00
X	8.50 → 8.50	Bet365 8.50
2	1.14 → 1.14	Bet365 1.14

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 9.3%

Time*	1	X	2
17:30 +4’	10.00	8.50	1.14

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Orkla 0–1–5 Nardo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/05/26 Norway Division 3 Group 2	Nardo	3-0 HT 1-0	Orkla
31/08/24 Norway Division 3 Group 4	Orkla	0-0 HT 0-0	Nardo
20/04/24 Norway Division 3 Group 4	Nardo	4-0 HT 0-0	Orkla
19/08/23 Norway Division 3 Group 5	Orkla	1-3 HT 0-2	Nardo
29/04/23 Norway Division 3 Group 5	Nardo	4-1 HT 3-0	Orkla
30/07/22 Norway Division 3 Group 5	Orkla	2-4 HT 0-3	Nardo

Standings · Norway Division 3 Group 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Strindheim	24	16	4	4	70	31	52
2	Volda	24	16	4	4	63	25	52
3	Melhus	24	12	5	7	55	29	41
4	Byåsen	24	12	4	8	56	46	40
5	Molde 2	24	10	5	9	64	75	35
6	Rosenborg 2	24	10	4	10	54	45	34
7	Nardo	24	10	3	11	64	50	33
8	Herd	24	9	5	10	49	56	32
9	Spjelkavik	24	8	5	11	44	52	29
10	NTNUI	24	7	6	11	35	54	27
11	Ranheim 2	24	7	5	12	60	77	26
12	Kvik Trondheim	24	7	5	12	35	56	26
13	Aalesunds FK 2	24	7	4	13	45	68	25
14	Orkla	24	5	5	14	40	70	20

Common opponents 9 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Orkla	Nardo
Strindheim	0-7 L	0-1 L
Volda	1-4 L	0-2 L
Byåsen	0-3 L	3-1 W
Aalesunds FK 2	2-2 D	3-3 D
Herd	2-2 D	11-0 W
NTNUI	3-1 W	5-2 W
Ranheim 2	3-3 D	4-1 W
Spjelkavik	2-5 L	4-2 W
Melhus	3-8 L	1-3 L
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 5 L	5 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Nardo (8 of 9 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Orkla

LLDWDDLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Strindheim Norway Division 3 Group 2	0-3	0-7	4	3	L
10/10	Kvik Trondheim Norway Division 3 Group 2	0-0	0-1	4	5	L
03/10	Volda Norway Division 3 Group 2	1-1	1-4	0	2	L
26/09	Byåsen Norway Division 3 Group 2	0-3	0-3	4	2	L
20/09	Aalesunds FK 2 Norway Division 3 Group 2	1-2	2-2	–	–	D
12/09	Herd Norway Division 3 Group 2	1-1	2-2	4	7	D
05/09	NTNUI Norway Division 3 Group 2	2-0	3-1	–	–	W
31/08	Ranheim 2 Norway Division 3 Group 2	3-1	3-3	4	6	D
15/08	Spjelkavik Norway Division 3 Group 2	2-2	2-5	–	–	L
08/08	Melhus Norway Division 3 Group 2	3-5	3-8	3	3	L

Nardo

LLWWWWLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
21/10	Aalesunds FK 2 Norway Division 3 Group 2	0-2	3-3	1	4	D
17/10	Herd Norway Division 3 Group 2	8-0	11-0	4	1	W
10/10	Byåsen Norway Division 3 Group 2	1-1	3-1	1	5	W
03/10	Strindheim Norway Division 3 Group 2	0-1	0-1	6	4	L
26/09	NTNUI Norway Division 3 Group 2	2-1	5-2	–	–	W
21/09	Ranheim 2 Norway Division 3 Group 2	2-0	4-1	6	3	W
13/09	Rosenborg 2 Norway Division 3 Group 2	2-1	5-2	4	1	W
05/09	Spjelkavik Norway Division 3 Group 2	2-1	4-2	5	2	W
15/08	Melhus Norway Division 3 Group 2	1-1	1-3	3	5	L
08/08	Volda Norway Division 3 Group 2	0-1	0-2	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Orkla vs Nardo?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Nardo win (78%). Probabilities: Orkla 10%, draw 12%, Nardo 78%.

How many goals are expected in Orkla vs Nardo?

The model expects 4.8 goals (Orkla 1.4 · Nardo 3.4), with a 53% chance of under 5 goals.

Will both teams score in Orkla vs Nardo?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-3.