Football · Norway Division 3 Group 2 · 24/10, 15:00

Prediction: NTNUI vs Melhus

Team pages: NTNUI · Melhus

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.59Total

NTNUI1.68

Melhus1.91

1X2

33% 24% 43%

NTNUI Draw Melhus

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

NTNUI 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LLWLDWLWWL

Melhus 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

WWLWLLLWLW

Head-to-head

NTNUI 0–1–1 Melhus (2 last)

Melhus3-3NTNUI
NTNUI0-1Melhus

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · NTNUI 1485 · Melhus 1489

	NTNUI	Draw	Melhus
Our model	33%	24%	43%
Market	33%	24%	43%

Estimated total (ours) 3.59 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 73%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	NTNUI	Melhus
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 2.4	2.3 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 1.1	0.8 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/10/40%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 5	2 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.9 / 0.4	3.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.70

X3.75

22.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.90

2 (-0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.82

Under 3.251.98

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.7

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 03:35

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.90 → 2.70▼	Bet365 2.70
X	3.90 → 3.75▼	Pinn 3.83
2	1.95 → 2.10▲	Pinn 2.54 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.3% Pinnacle margin 15%

Time*	1	X	2
15:55 +6’	2.90	3.90	1.95
03:24 +11’	2.70▼	3.75▼	2.10▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
03:21 +13’	2.26	3.83	2.24
05:51 +2’	2.02▼	3.83	2.54▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · NTNUI 0–1–1 Melhus

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/04/26 Norway Division 3 Group 2	Melhus	3-3 HT 2-0	NTNUI
14/10/21 Norway Division 3 Group 5	NTNUI	0-1 HT 0-0	Melhus

Standings · Norway Division 3 Group 2

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Strindheim	24	16	4	4	70	31	52
2	Volda	24	16	4	4	63	25	52
3	Melhus	24	12	5	7	55	29	41
4	Byåsen	24	12	4	8	56	46	40
5	Molde 2	24	10	5	9	64	75	35
6	Rosenborg 2	24	10	4	10	54	45	34
7	Nardo	24	10	3	11	64	50	33
8	Herd	24	9	5	10	49	56	32
9	Spjelkavik	24	8	5	11	44	52	29
10	NTNUI	24	7	6	11	35	54	27
11	Ranheim 2	24	7	5	12	60	77	26
12	Kvik Trondheim	24	7	5	12	35	56	26
13	Aalesunds FK 2	24	7	4	13	45	68	25
14	Orkla	24	5	5	14	40	70	20

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	NTNUI	Melhus
Rosenborg 2	0-3 L	4-1 W
Volda	1-0 W	1-2 L
Aalesunds FK 2	3-1 W	0-1 L
Nardo	2-5 L	3-1 W
Molde 2	4-4 D	0-1 L
Orkla	1-3 L	8-3 W
Herd	2-1 W	4-1 W
Strindheim	0-4 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 4 L	4 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Melhus (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

NTNUI

LLWLDWLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/10	Rosenborg 2 Norway Division 3 Group 2	0-1	0-3	3	4	L
10/10	Volda Norway Division 3 Group 2	1-0	1-0	1	2	W
03/10	Aalesunds FK 2 Norway Division 3 Group 2	2-1	3-1	13	3	W
26/09	Nardo Norway Division 3 Group 2	1-2	2-5	–	–	L
19/09	Kvik Trondheim Norway Division 3 Group 2	1-0	2-0	5	6	W
12/09	Molde 2 Norway Division 3 Group 2	3-2	4-4	–	–	D
05/09	Orkla Norway Division 3 Group 2	0-2	1-3	–	–	L
30/08	Herd Norway Division 3 Group 2	2-0	2-1	6	3	W
15/08	Strindheim Norway Division 3 Group 2	0-3	0-4	5	1	L
08/08	Byåsen Norway Division 3 Group 2	0-0	0-3	2	4	L

Melhus

WWLWLLLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/10	Ranheim 2 Norway Division 3 Group 2	0-0	3-0	3	4	W
12/10	Aalesunds FK 2 Norway Division 3 Group 2	0-0	0-1	7	5	L
02/10	Rosenborg 2 Norway Division 3 Group 2	1-0	4-1	6	3	W
26/09	Spjelkavik Norway Division 3 Group 2	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
20/09	Molde 2 Norway Division 3 Group 2	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
12/09	Volda Norway Division 3 Group 2	0-1	1-2	4	4	L
05/09	Herd Norway Division 3 Group 2	1-0	4-1	4	1	W
30/08	Strindheim Norway Division 3 Group 2	0-1	0-1	–	–	L
15/08	Nardo Norway Division 3 Group 2	1-1	3-1	6	5	W
08/08	Orkla Norway Division 3 Group 2	5-3	8-3	3	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in NTNUI vs Melhus?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Melhus win (43%). Probabilities: NTNUI 33%, draw 24%, Melhus 43%.

How many goals are expected in NTNUI vs Melhus?

The model expects 3.59 goals (NTNUI 1.68 · Melhus 1.91), with a 53% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in NTNUI vs Melhus?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.