Football · Australia Queensland Premier League 3 · 18/07, 11:00
Prediction: Mount Gravatt Hawks vs Logan Roos FC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.4Total
Mount Gravatt Hawks2.46
Logan Roos FC1.94
1X2
Mount Gravatt Hawks
Draw
Logan Roos FC
Markets
Under 4.5 goals 55%
Both teams to score 63%
Most likely score
2-1
Recent form · 10 last
Mount Gravatt Hawks
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Logan Roos FC
2-1-7 (W-D-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Mount Gravatt Hawks 1471 · Logan Roos FC 1433
| Mount Gravatt Hawks | Draw | Logan Roos FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 49% | 20% | 30% |
| Market | 49% | 21% | 30% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.4 goals · Bet365 line 4 · +0.4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 82%model estimate
Match keys
- Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Mount Gravatt Hawks | Logan Roos FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 2.8 | 2 / 3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 1.4 | 1.1 / 1.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/0/70% | 30/30/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 5.1 | 1.4 / 4.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.1 / 0.3 | 3.3 / 0.2 |
Standings · Australia Queensland Premier League 3
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Moggill | 19 | 12 | 3 | 4 | 54 | 27 | 39 |
| 2 | Newmarket | 16 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 55 | 24 | 36 |
| 3 | Yeronga Eagles FC | 19 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 60 | 28 | 35 |
| 4 | AC Carina | 15 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 52 | 24 | 33 |
| 5 | Springfield United | 20 | 9 | 5 | 6 | 43 | 38 | 32 |
| 6 | Ipswich Knights | 20 | 8 | 0 | 12 | 32 | 44 | 24 |
| 7 | Mount Gravatt Hawks | 18 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 33 | 44 | 22 |
| 8 | North Lakes United | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 40 | 39 | 21 |
| 9 | North Brisbane FC | 19 | 6 | 3 | 10 | 30 | 58 | 21 |
| 10 | University of Queensland | 17 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 40 | 46 | 19 |
| 11 | Logan Roos FC | 16 | 6 | 1 | 9 | 36 | 48 | 19 |
| 12 | North Pine | 18 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 20 | 38 | 15 |
| 13 | Redcliffe Dolphins SC | 18 | 4 | 1 | 13 | 30 | 67 | 13 |
Common opponents 9 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Mount Gravatt Hawks | Logan Roos FC |
|---|---|---|
| University of Queensland | 3-3 D | 2-3 L |
| North Pine | 2-1 W | 3-1 W |
| Springfield United | 2-4 L | 2-4 L |
| Redcliffe Dolphins SC | 4-2 W | 2-5 L |
| Moggill | 1-2 L | 1-2 L |
| Yeronga Eagles FC | 0-6 L | 1-1 D |
| Newmarket | 0-6 L | 2-5 L |
| Ipswich Knights | 1-0 W | 4-6 L |
| North Brisbane FC | 2-2 D | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 3 W 2 D 4 L | 1 W 1 D 7 L |
Better against common opponents: Mount Gravatt Hawks (4 of 9 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Mount Gravatt Hawks
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | University of Queensland Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
1-2 | 3-3 | 1 | 10 | D |
| 05/07 | North Pine Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
2-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 01/07 | Springfield United Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
0-1 | 2-4 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 28/06 | Redcliffe Dolphins SC Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
3-0 | 4-2 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 13/06 | Moggill Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
0-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 09/06 | Yeronga Eagles FC Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
0-4 | 0-6 | 7 | 1 | L |
| 06/06 | Newmarket Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
0-2 | 0-6 | – | – | L |
| 31/05 | North Lakes United Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
0-1 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 23/05 | Ipswich Knights Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
1-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 17/05 | North Brisbane FC Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
0-1 | 2-2 | 11 | 3 | D |
Logan Roos FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | Moggill Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
1-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 28/06 | Yeronga Eagles FC Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 0 | 8 | D |
| 20/06 | Newmarket Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
0-4 | 2-5 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 09/06 | Ipswich Knights Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
3-5 | 4-6 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 07/06 | North Brisbane FC Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
1-1 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 24/05 | Springfield United Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
1-2 | 2-4 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 17/05 | Redcliffe Dolphins SC Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
2-3 | 2-5 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 10/05 | University of Queensland Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
1-1 | 2-3 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 02/05 | North Pine Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
0-0 | 3-1 | 8 | 2 | W |
| 12/04 | Moggill Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 5 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Mount Gravatt Hawks vs Logan Roos FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Mount Gravatt Hawks win (49%). Probabilities: Mount Gravatt Hawks 49%, draw 21%, Logan Roos FC 30%.
How many goals are expected in Mount Gravatt Hawks vs Logan Roos FC?
The model expects 4.4 goals (Mount Gravatt Hawks 2.46 · Logan Roos FC 1.94), with a 54% chance of over 4 goals.
Will both teams score in Mount Gravatt Hawks vs Logan Roos FC?
The model gives a 63% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.