Football · Australia Queensland Premier League 3 · 19/07, 08:15
Prediction: Newmarket vs Ipswich Knights
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4Total
Newmarket2.95
Ipswich Knights1.05
1X2
Newmarket
Draw
Ipswich Knights
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 57%
Both teams to score 57%
Most likely score
2-1
Recent form · 10 last
Newmarket
8-2-0 (W-D-L)
Ipswich Knights
6-0-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Newmarket
3–0
Ipswich Knights
(3 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Newmarket 1613 · Ipswich Knights 1512
| Newmarket | Draw | Ipswich Knights | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 75% | 15% | 10% |
| Market | 76% | 14% | 11% |
Estimated total (ours)
4 goals · Bet365 line 4
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 78%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Newmarket (rating 1613 vs 1512).
- H2H favours Newmarket: 3-0-0.
- High corners: 11.4 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Newmarket | Ipswich Knights | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 3.9 / 1.1 | 2 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.4 / 0.4 | 1.2 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/40/10% | 40/20/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.8 / 6 | 2.6 / 5.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.2 / 0.4 | 3.8 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Newmarket 3–0–0 Ipswich Knights
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/04/26 Australia Queensland Premier League 3 | Ipswich Knights | 0-2 HT 0-0 | Newmarket |
| 07/06/25 Australia Queensland Premier League 3 | Newmarket | 4-0 HT 2-0 | Ipswich Knights |
| 02/03/25 Australia Queensland Premier League 3 | Ipswich Knights | 1-2 HT 1-2 | Newmarket |
Standings · Australia Queensland Premier League 3
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Moggill | 19 | 12 | 3 | 4 | 54 | 27 | 39 |
| 2 | Newmarket | 16 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 55 | 24 | 36 |
| 3 | Yeronga Eagles FC | 19 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 60 | 28 | 35 |
| 4 | AC Carina | 15 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 52 | 24 | 33 |
| 5 | Springfield United | 20 | 9 | 5 | 6 | 43 | 38 | 32 |
| 6 | Ipswich Knights | 20 | 8 | 0 | 12 | 32 | 44 | 24 |
| 7 | Mount Gravatt Hawks | 18 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 33 | 44 | 22 |
| 8 | North Lakes United | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 40 | 39 | 21 |
| 9 | North Brisbane FC | 19 | 6 | 3 | 10 | 30 | 58 | 21 |
| 10 | University of Queensland | 17 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 40 | 46 | 19 |
| 11 | Logan Roos FC | 16 | 6 | 1 | 9 | 36 | 48 | 19 |
| 12 | North Pine | 18 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 20 | 38 | 15 |
| 13 | Redcliffe Dolphins SC | 18 | 4 | 1 | 13 | 30 | 67 | 13 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Newmarket | Ipswich Knights |
|---|---|---|
| North Brisbane FC | 5-1 W | 0-2 L |
| Springfield United | 2-2 D | 2-1 W |
| Logan Roos FC | 5-2 W | 6-4 W |
| University of Queensland | 3-3 D | 5-0 W |
| Mount Gravatt Hawks | 6-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Moggill | 7-0 W | 3-2 W |
| Redcliffe Dolphins SC | 3-1 W | 2-0 W |
| Record vs common | 5 W 2 D 0 L | 5 W 0 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Newmarket (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Newmarket
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | North Brisbane FC Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
2-0 | 5-1 | – | – | W |
| 27/06 | Springfield United Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
0-2 | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 20/06 | Logan Roos FC Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
4-0 | 5-2 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 13/06 | University of Queensland Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
1-1 | 3-3 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 06/06 | Mount Gravatt Hawks Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
2-0 | 6-0 | – | – | W |
| 23/05 | Moggill Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
2-0 | 7-0 | – | – | W |
| 16/05 | Yeronga Eagles FC Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
0-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 09/05 | Redcliffe Dolphins SC Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
3-1 | 3-1 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 26/04 | Ipswich Knights Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
0-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 18/04 | North Brisbane FC Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
0-0 | 4-1 | 7 | 3 | W |
Ipswich Knights
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | North Lakes United Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
1-0 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 05/07 | Redcliffe Dolphins SC Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
2-0 | 2-0 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 28/06 | North Brisbane FC Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 15 | 6 | L |
| 21/06 | AC Carina Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 13/06 | Springfield United Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 09/06 | Logan Roos FC Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
5-3 | 6-4 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 06/06 | University of Queensland Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
2-0 | 5-0 | 0 | 3 | W |
| 31/05 | North Pine Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 23/05 | Mount Gravatt Hawks Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
0-1 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 10/05 | Moggill Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
1-2 | 3-2 | 2 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Newmarket vs Ipswich Knights?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Newmarket win (75%). Probabilities: Newmarket 75%, draw 14%, Ipswich Knights 10%.
How many goals are expected in Newmarket vs Ipswich Knights?
The model expects 4 goals (Newmarket 2.95 · Ipswich Knights 1.05), with a 51% chance of under 4 goals.
Will both teams score in Newmarket vs Ipswich Knights?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.