Prediction: University of Queensland vs Mount Gravatt Hawks
Expected goals: 3.98 (University of Queensland 2.2 · Mount Gravatt Hawks 1.78). The model gives 47% home, 22% draw, 31% away. Under 3.75 goals (51%) and both teams to score (62%). Most likely score: 1-1.
Recent form leaves University of Queensland with 2 wins, 4 draws and 4 losses over 10 games; Mount Gravatt Hawks has piled up 3-1-6 in the same span. In the last 6 head-to-head meetings the record reads 3 wins for University of Queensland and 1 for Mount Gravatt Hawks, with 2 draws.
| University of Queensland | Draw | Mount Gravatt Hawks | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 47% | 22% | 31% |
| Market | 47% | 22% | 31% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- H2H favours University of Queensland: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 5.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| University of Queensland | Mount Gravatt Hawks | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.9 / 2.4 | 1.5 / 2.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.8 | 0.7 / 1.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/60/20% | 30/0/70% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.8 / 4.2 | 2 / 5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.3 / 0.1 | 3.4 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · University of Queensland 3–2–1 Mount Gravatt Hawks
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/04/26 Australia Queensland Premier League 3 | Mount Gravatt Hawks | 1-1 HT 0-0 | University of Queensland |
| 24/06/25 Australia Queensland Premier League 3 | University of Queensland | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Mount Gravatt Hawks |
| 15/06/25 Australia Queensland Premier League 3 | Mount Gravatt Hawks | 1-1 HT 1-0 | University of Queensland |
| 14/07/24 Australia Queensland Premier League 3 | University of Queensland | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Mount Gravatt Hawks |
| 14/04/24 Australia Queensland Premier League 3 | Mount Gravatt Hawks | 2-3 HT 1-0 | University of Queensland |
| 30/07/23 Australia Queensland Premier League 3 | University of Queensland | 4-2 HT 3-0 | Mount Gravatt Hawks |
Standings · Australia Queensland Premier League 3
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Moggill | 18 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 51 | 25 | 36 |
| 2 | Yeronga Eagles FC | 18 | 11 | 2 | 5 | 59 | 25 | 35 |
| 3 | Newmarket | 15 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 50 | 23 | 33 |
| 4 | Springfield United | 19 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 41 | 35 | 32 |
| 5 | AC Carina | 14 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 49 | 23 | 30 |
| 6 | North Lakes United | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 39 | 37 | 21 |
| 7 | Mount Gravatt Hawks | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 30 | 41 | 21 |
| 8 | Ipswich Knights | 19 | 7 | 0 | 12 | 30 | 43 | 21 |
| 9 | North Brisbane FC | 18 | 6 | 3 | 9 | 29 | 53 | 21 |
| 10 | Logan Roos FC | 16 | 6 | 1 | 9 | 36 | 48 | 19 |
| 11 | University of Queensland | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 37 | 43 | 18 |
| 12 | North Pine | 17 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 19 | 34 | 15 |
| 13 | Redcliffe Dolphins SC | 17 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 26 | 66 | 10 |
Common opponents 9 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | University of Queensland | Mount Gravatt Hawks |
|---|---|---|
| Moggill | 0-0 D | 1-2 L |
| Yeronga Eagles FC | 0-3 L | 0-6 L |
| Newmarket | 3-3 D | 0-6 L |
| North Lakes United | 1-1 D | 1-2 L |
| Ipswich Knights | 0-5 L | 1-0 W |
| North Brisbane FC | 2-4 L | 2-2 D |
| Springfield United | 2-3 L | 2-4 L |
| Redcliffe Dolphins SC | 7-2 W | 4-2 W |
| North Pine | 1-1 D | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 4 D 4 L | 3 W 1 D 5 L |
Better against common opponents: University of Queensland (6 of 9 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
University of Queensland
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Moggill Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 1 | D |
| 19/06 | Yeronga Eagles FC Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
0-0 | 0-3 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 13/06 | Newmarket Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
1-1 | 3-3 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 09/06 | North Lakes United Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
1-1 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 06/06 | Ipswich Knights Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
0-2 | 0-5 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 30/05 | North Brisbane FC Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
2-0 | 2-4 | 0 | 0 | L |
| 16/05 | Springfield United Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
1-1 | 2-3 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 10/05 | Logan Roos FC Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
1-1 | 3-2 | 6 | 0 | W |
| 02/05 | Redcliffe Dolphins SC Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
3-1 | 7-2 | 10 | 5 | W |
| 26/04 | North Pine Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 7 | D |
Mount Gravatt Hawks
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07 | North Pine Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
2-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 01/07 | Springfield United Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
0-1 | 2-4 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 28/06 | Redcliffe Dolphins SC Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
3-0 | 4-2 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 13/06 | Moggill Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
0-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 09/06 | Yeronga Eagles FC Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
0-4 | 0-6 | 7 | 1 | L |
| 06/06 | Newmarket Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
0-2 | 0-6 | – | – | L |
| 31/05 | North Lakes United Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
0-1 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 23/05 | Ipswich Knights Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
1-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 17/05 | North Brisbane FC Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
0-1 | 2-2 | 11 | 3 | D |
| 08/05 | AC Carina Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
1-2 | 2-3 | 0 | 10 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in University of Queensland vs Mount Gravatt Hawks?
According to our model, the most likely result is a University of Queensland win (47%). Probabilities: University of Queensland 47%, draw 22%, Mount Gravatt Hawks 31%.
How many goals are expected in University of Queensland vs Mount Gravatt Hawks?
The model expects 3.98 goals (University of Queensland 2.2 · Mount Gravatt Hawks 1.78), with a 51% chance of under 3.75 goals.
Will both teams score in University of Queensland vs Mount Gravatt Hawks?
The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.