Prediction: North Brisbane FC vs Newmarket
Expected goals: 4.55 (North Brisbane FC 1.27 · Newmarket 3.27). The model gives 9% home, 12% draw, 79% away. Under 4.5 goals (52%) and both teams to score (60%). Most likely score: 1-3.
Over its last 10 matches, North Brisbane FC sits at 4-2-4 (W-D-L), while Newmarket arrives on a 7-2-1 run. In the last 6 head-to-head meetings the record reads 1 wins for North Brisbane FC and 3 for Newmarket, with 2 draws.
| North Brisbane FC | Draw | Newmarket | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 11% | 14% | 75% |
| Market | 8% | 10% | 82% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Newmarket (rating 1474 vs 1590).
- H2H favours Newmarket: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 5.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| North Brisbane FC | Newmarket | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 2.7 | 3.6 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 1.5 | 1.3 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/20/50% | 50/40/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.4 / 2.8 | 2.7 / 5.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.7 / 0.3 | 3 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · North Brisbane FC 1–2–3 Newmarket
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/04/26 Australia Queensland Premier League 3 | Newmarket | 4-1 HT 0-0 | North Brisbane FC |
| 26/06/25 Australia Queensland Premier League 3 | North Brisbane FC | 1-4 HT 1-1 | Newmarket |
| 14/06/25 Australia Queensland Premier League 3 | Newmarket | 2-2 HT 0-0 | North Brisbane FC |
| 06/07/24 Australia Queensland Premier League 3 | Newmarket | 2-1 HT 1-0 | North Brisbane FC |
| 04/05/24 Australia Queensland Premier League 3 | North Brisbane FC | 2-2 HT 1-1 | Newmarket |
| 13/08/23 Australia Queensland Premier League 3 | Newmarket | 0-3 HT 0-3 | North Brisbane FC |
Standings · Australia Queensland Premier League 3
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Moggill | 18 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 51 | 25 | 36 |
| 2 | Yeronga Eagles FC | 18 | 11 | 2 | 5 | 59 | 25 | 35 |
| 3 | Newmarket | 15 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 50 | 23 | 33 |
| 4 | Springfield United | 19 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 41 | 35 | 32 |
| 5 | AC Carina | 14 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 49 | 23 | 30 |
| 6 | North Lakes United | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 39 | 37 | 21 |
| 7 | Mount Gravatt Hawks | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 30 | 41 | 21 |
| 8 | Ipswich Knights | 19 | 7 | 0 | 12 | 30 | 43 | 21 |
| 9 | North Brisbane FC | 18 | 6 | 3 | 9 | 29 | 53 | 21 |
| 10 | Logan Roos FC | 16 | 6 | 1 | 9 | 36 | 48 | 19 |
| 11 | University of Queensland | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 37 | 43 | 18 |
| 12 | North Pine | 17 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 19 | 34 | 15 |
| 13 | Redcliffe Dolphins SC | 17 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 26 | 66 | 10 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | North Brisbane FC | Newmarket |
|---|---|---|
| Ipswich Knights | 2-0 W | 2-0 W |
| Redcliffe Dolphins SC | 1-2 L | 3-1 W |
| Springfield United | 0-4 L | 2-2 D |
| Logan Roos FC | 2-1 W | 5-2 W |
| University of Queensland | 4-2 W | 3-3 D |
| Mount Gravatt Hawks | 2-2 D | 6-0 W |
| Moggill | 0-7 L | 7-0 W |
| Yeronga Eagles FC | 0-6 L | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 3 W 1 D 4 L | 6 W 2 D 0 L |
Better against common opponents: Newmarket (6 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
North Brisbane FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | North Lakes United Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
1-1 | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 28/06 | Ipswich Knights Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 6 | W |
| 21/06 | Redcliffe Dolphins SC Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 17/06 | Springfield United Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
0-2 | 0-4 | – | – | L |
| 07/06 | Logan Roos FC Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
1-1 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 30/05 | University of Queensland Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
0-2 | 4-2 | 0 | 0 | W |
| 23/05 | North Pine Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 17/05 | Mount Gravatt Hawks Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
1-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 02/05 | Moggill Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
0-5 | 0-7 | – | – | L |
| 26/04 | Yeronga Eagles FC Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
0-3 | 0-6 | 3 | 3 | L |
Newmarket
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/06 | Springfield United Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
0-2 | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 20/06 | Logan Roos FC Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
4-0 | 5-2 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 13/06 | University of Queensland Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
1-1 | 3-3 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 06/06 | Mount Gravatt Hawks Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
2-0 | 6-0 | – | – | W |
| 23/05 | Moggill Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
2-0 | 7-0 | – | – | W |
| 16/05 | Yeronga Eagles FC Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
0-0 | 2-1 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 09/05 | Redcliffe Dolphins SC Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
3-1 | 3-1 | 8 | 5 | W |
| 26/04 | Ipswich Knights Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
0-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 18/04 | North Brisbane FC Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
0-0 | 4-1 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 11/04 | AC Carina Australia Queensland Premier League 3 |
1-0 | 2-6 | 2 | 2 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in North Brisbane FC vs Newmarket?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Newmarket win (79%). Probabilities: North Brisbane FC 9%, draw 12%, Newmarket 79%.
How many goals are expected in North Brisbane FC vs Newmarket?
The model expects 4.55 goals (North Brisbane FC 1.27 · Newmarket 3.27), with a 52% chance of under 4.5 goals.
Will both teams score in North Brisbane FC vs Newmarket?
The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-3.