Football · USA NWSL Women · 18/10, 01:00

Prediction: North Carolina Courage (W) vs San Diego Wave (W)

Team pages: North Carolina Courage (W) · San Diego Wave (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.15Total

North Carolina Courage (W)1.56

San Diego Wave (W)1.59

1X2

37% 26% 38%

North Carolina Courage (W) Draw San Diego Wave (W)

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

North Carolina Courage (W) 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

WLWWLWLLLW

San Diego Wave (W) 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

WLDWWLWWWW

Head-to-head

North Carolina Courage (W) 2–2–2 San Diego Wave (W) (6 last)

San Diego Wave (W)2-1North Carolina Courage (W)
North Carolina Courage (W)0-0San Diego Wave (W)
San Diego Wave (W)5-2North Carolina Courage (W)
North Carolina Courage (W)2-1San Diego Wave (W)
San Diego Wave (W)1-4North Carolina Courage (W)
North Carolina Courage (W)0-0San Diego Wave (W)

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours San Diego Wave (W) (rating 1508 vs 1567).
Cards-heavy: 5.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	North Carolina Courage (W)	San Diego Wave (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 1.6	1.7 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.7	0.7 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	50/20/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 3.7	2.1 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0	2.1 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 31.97

Under 31.82

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:38

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	2.43 → 2.43	Pinn 2.43
X	3.52 → 3.52	Pinn 3.52
2	2.53 → 2.53	Pinn 2.53

See the full journey (1)

Pinnacle margin 9.1%

Time*	1	X	2
02:05 +33’	2.43	3.52	2.53

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · North Carolina Courage (W) 2–2–2 San Diego Wave (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
13/09/26 USA NWSL Women	San Diego Wave (W)	2-1 HT 1-0	North Carolina Courage (W)
03/08/25 USA NWSL Women	North Carolina Courage (W)	0-0 HT 0-0	San Diego Wave (W)
26/05/25 USA NWSL Women	San Diego Wave (W)	5-2 HT 2-1	North Carolina Courage (W)
06/10/24 USA NWSL Women	North Carolina Courage (W)	2-1 HT 2-0	San Diego Wave (W)
09/09/24 USA NWSL Women	San Diego Wave (W)	1-4 HT 1-3	North Carolina Courage (W)
08/10/23 USA NWSL Women	North Carolina Courage (W)	0-0 HT 0-0	San Diego Wave (W)

Standings · USA NWSL Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	NJ/NY Gotham FC (W)	27	16	7	4	35	21	55
2	San Diego Wave (W)	27	16	3	8	40	28	51
3	Washington Spirit (W)	27	15	4	8	39	26	49
4	Utah Royals (W)	27	14	4	9	44	35	46
5	Kansas City Current (W)	27	13	5	9	48	38	44
6	Angel City FC (W)	27	12	7	8	45	29	43
7	Portland Thorns (W)	27	12	7	8	45	39	43
8	North Carolina Courage (W)	27	13	3	11	50	39	42
9	Reign FC (W)	27	12	4	11	33	32	40
10	Denver Summit FC (W)	27	10	8	9	45	37	38
11	Orlando Pride (W)	27	10	3	14	36	43	33
12	Houston Dash (W)	27	8	6	13	34	39	30
13	Boston Legacy FC (W)	27	8	5	14	36	46	29
14	Bay FC (W)	27	7	5	15	28	42	26
15	Racing Louisville FC (W)	27	7	3	17	36	52	24
16	Chicago Stars (W)	27	5	2	20	15	63	17

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	North Carolina Courage (W)	San Diego Wave (W)
Reign FC (W)	1-0 W	0-1 L
Utah Royals (W)	1-2 L	4-2 W
NJ/NY Gotham FC (W)	1-2 L	0-1 L
Kansas City Current (W)	2-3 L	2-0 W
Washington Spirit (W)	4-3 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 3 L	3 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: San Diego Wave (W) (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

North Carolina Courage (W)

WLWWLWLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Reign FC (W) USA NWSL Women	0-0	1-0	2	4	W
28/09	Utah Royals (W) USA NWSL Women	1-1	1-2	4	5	L
20/09	NJ/NY Gotham FC (W) USA NWSL Women	0-1	1-2	6	2	L
13/09	San Diego Wave (W) USA NWSL Women	0-1	1-2	3	1	L
06/09	Chicago Stars (W) USA NWSL Women	2-0	6-0	5	3	W
30/08	Kansas City Current (W) USA NWSL Women	1-3	2-3	4	7	L
27/08	Angel City FC (W) USA NWSL Women	1-0	2-0	2	1	W
23/08	Boston Legacy FC (W) USA NWSL Women	1-0	2-1	8	2	W
17/08	Houston Dash (W) USA NWSL Women	1-1	2-3	1	1	L
09/08	Washington Spirit (W) USA NWSL Women	3-0	4-3	2	4	W

San Diego Wave (W)

WLDWWLWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Orlando Pride (W) USA NWSL Women	2-0	2-1	6	3	W
26/09	Racing Louisville FC (W) USA NWSL Women	1-0	2-0	7	1	W
19/09	Kansas City Current (W) USA NWSL Women	0-0	2-0	4	4	W
13/09	North Carolina Courage (W) USA NWSL Women	1-0	2-1	1	1	W
07/09	Reign FC (W) USA NWSL Women	0-1	0-1	4	3	L
29/08	Racing Louisville FC (W) USA NWSL Women	0-2	3-2	11	4	W
22/08	Utah Royals (W) USA NWSL Women	2-1	4-2	2	0	W
15/08	Denver Summit FC (W) USA NWSL Women	1-0	1-1	6	3	D
08/08	NJ/NY Gotham FC (W) USA NWSL Women	0-1	0-1	1	1	L
02/08	Washington Spirit (W) USA NWSL Women	0-0	1-0	4	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in North Carolina Courage (W) vs San Diego Wave (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an San Diego Wave (W) win (38%). Probabilities: North Carolina Courage (W) 37%, draw 26%, San Diego Wave (W) 38%.

How many goals are expected in North Carolina Courage (W) vs San Diego Wave (W)?

The model expects 3.15 goals (North Carolina Courage (W) 1.56 · San Diego Wave (W) 1.59), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in North Carolina Courage (W) vs San Diego Wave (W)?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.