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Football · USA NWSL Women · 19/10, 01:00

Prediction: Chicago Stars (W) vs Reign FC (W)

Team pages: Chicago Stars (W) · Reign FC (W)

Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.8Total
Chicago Stars (W)0.79
Reign FC (W)2
1X2
13% 21% 65%
Chicago Stars (W) Draw Reign FC (W)
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
0-2 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Chicago Stars (W) 1-2-7 (W-D-L)
DLLWLLDLLL
Reign FC (W) 5-1-4 (W-D-L)
WLDWWWLLWL
Head-to-head
Chicago Stars (W) 2–2–2 Reign FC (W) (6 last)
  • Reign FC (W)1-0Chicago Stars (W)
  • Reign FC (W)3-3Chicago Stars (W)
  • Chicago Stars (W)2-2Reign FC (W)
  • Reign FC (W)1-2Chicago Stars (W)
  • Chicago Stars (W)2-1Reign FC (W)
  • Chicago Stars (W)0-3Reign FC (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Chicago Stars (W) 1412 · Reign FC (W) 1505
Chicago Stars (W)DrawReign FC (W)
Our model13%22%65%
Market14%21%66%
Estimated total (ours) 2.8 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

  • Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Reign FC (W) (rating 1412 vs 1505).

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

Chicago Stars (W)Reign FC (W)
Goals for / against (FT)0.6 / 31.1 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)0.1 / 1.30.4 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)10/20/70%30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)1.7 / 3.22.3 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)1.6 / 02.6 / 0.1

Head-to-head (H2H) · Chicago Stars (W) 2–2–2 Reign FC (W)

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DateHomeScoreAway
15/08/26
USA NWSL Women
Reign FC (W)1-0
HT 0-0
Chicago Stars (W)
19/08/25
USA NWSL Women
Reign FC (W)3-3
HT 2-0
Chicago Stars (W)
14/06/25
USA NWSL Women
Chicago Stars (W)2-2
HT 2-0
Reign FC (W)
22/04/24
USA NWSL Women
Reign FC (W)1-2
HT 0-2
Chicago Stars (W)
23/03/24
USA NWSL Women
Chicago Stars (W)2-1
HT 1-0
Reign FC (W)
15/10/23
USA NWSL Women
Chicago Stars (W)0-3
HT 0-0
Reign FC (W)

Standings · USA NWSL Women

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#Team PWDL GFGAPts
1 NJ/NY Gotham FC (W) 271674 352155
2 San Diego Wave (W) 271638 402851
3 Washington Spirit (W) 271548 392649
4 Utah Royals (W) 271449 443546
5 Kansas City Current (W) 271359 483844
6 Angel City FC (W) 271278 452943
7 Portland Thorns (W) 271278 453943
8 North Carolina Courage (W) 2713311 503942
9 Reign FC (W) 2712411 333240
10 Denver Summit FC (W) 271089 453738
11 Orlando Pride (W) 2710314 364333
12 Houston Dash (W) 278613 343930
13 Boston Legacy FC (W) 278514 364629
14 Bay FC (W) 277515 284226
15 Racing Louisville FC (W) 277317 365224
16 Chicago Stars (W) 275220 156317

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

OpponentChicago Stars (W)Reign FC (W)
Denver Summit FC (W) 0-3 L 1-2 L
North Carolina Courage (W) 0-6 L 0-1 L
Racing Louisville FC (W) 3-2 W 1-2 L
Houston Dash (W) 0-5 L 1-0 W
Bay FC (W) 0-0 D 2-0 W
Record vs common 1 W 1 D 3 L 2 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Reign FC (W) (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Chicago Stars (W)

DLLWLLDLLL

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
04/10 Denver Summit FC (W)
USA NWSL Women
 0-2 0-3 11 L
26/09 NJ/NY Gotham FC (W)
USA NWSL Women
 0-1 1-3 05 L
20/09 Washington Spirit (W)
USA NWSL Women
 0-2 0-3 31 L
14/09 Portland Thorns (W)
USA NWSL Women
 0-1 1-1 71 D
06/09 North Carolina Courage (W)
USA NWSL Women
 0-2 0-6 13 L
30/08 Denver Summit FC (W)
USA NWSL Women
 0-2 1-6 21 L
23/08 Racing Louisville FC (W)
USA NWSL Women
 1-0 3-2 40 W
20/08 Houston Dash (W)
USA NWSL Women
 0-3 0-5 52 L
15/08 Reign FC (W)
USA NWSL Women
 0-0 0-1 30 L
10/08 Bay FC (W)
USA NWSL Women
 0-0 0-0 62 D

Reign FC (W)

WLDWWWLLWL

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Date Opponent HT FT Cor.Cards Res.
03/10 North Carolina Courage (W)
USA NWSL Women
 0-0 0-1 64 L
26/09 Boston Legacy FC (W)
USA NWSL Women
 1-0 2-0 51 W
20/09 Denver Summit FC (W)
USA NWSL Women
 0-1 1-2 14 L
17/09 Angel City FC (W)
USA NWSL Women
 0-2 1-3 24 L
13/09 Bay FC (W)
USA NWSL Women
 0-0 2-0 41 W
07/09 San Diego Wave (W)
USA NWSL Women
 1-0 1-0 23 W
31/08 Houston Dash (W)
USA NWSL Women
 0-0 1-0 74 W
23/08 Kansas City Current (W)
USA NWSL Women
 1-0 1-1 35 D
20/08 Racing Louisville FC (W)
USA NWSL Women
 1-1 1-2 121 L
15/08 Chicago Stars (W)
USA NWSL Women
 0-0 1-0 130 W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Chicago Stars (W) vs Reign FC (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Reign FC (W) win (65%). Probabilities: Chicago Stars (W) 13%, draw 21%, Reign FC (W) 65%.

How many goals are expected in Chicago Stars (W) vs Reign FC (W)?

The model expects 2.8 goals (Chicago Stars (W) 0.79 · Reign FC (W) 2), with a 56% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Chicago Stars (W) vs Reign FC (W)?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.