Football · USA NWSL Women · 18/10, 23:00
Prediction: Bay FC (W) vs Portland Thorns (W)
Team pages: Bay FC (W) · Portland Thorns (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.06Total
Bay FC (W)1.5
Portland Thorns (W)1.56
1X2
Bay FC (W)
Draw
Portland Thorns (W)
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 63%
Both teams to score 57%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Bay FC (W)
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Portland Thorns (W)
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Bay FC (W)
2–3
Portland Thorns (W)
(5 last)
- Portland Thorns (W)2-0Bay FC (W)
- Portland Thorns (W)2-1Bay FC (W)
- Bay FC (W)1-0Portland Thorns (W)
- Portland Thorns (W)1-3Bay FC (W)
- Bay FC (W)2-3Portland Thorns (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Bay FC (W) 1441 · Portland Thorns (W) 1505
| Bay FC (W) | Draw | Portland Thorns (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 36% | 26% | 38% |
| Market | 36% | 25% | 39% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.06 goals · Bet365 line 3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Portland Thorns (W) (rating 1441 vs 1505).
- H2H favours Portland Thorns (W): 3-0-2.
- Cards-heavy: 4.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Bay FC (W) | Portland Thorns (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1 / 1.8 | 1.8 / 1.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.7 | 1 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/80/20% | 50/30/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 4.2 | 2.4 / 4.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1.9 / 0 | 2.8 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Bay FC (W) 2–0–3 Portland Thorns (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21/05/26 USA NWSL Women | Portland Thorns (W) | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Bay FC (W) |
| 05/10/25 USA NWSL Women | Portland Thorns (W) | 2-1 HT 0-1 | Bay FC (W) |
| 08/06/25 USA NWSL Women | Bay FC (W) | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Portland Thorns (W) |
| 31/08/24 USA NWSL Women | Portland Thorns (W) | 1-3 HT 1-2 | Bay FC (W) |
| 02/05/24 USA NWSL Women | Bay FC (W) | 2-3 HT 1-2 | Portland Thorns (W) |
Standings · USA NWSL Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NJ/NY Gotham FC (W) | 27 | 16 | 7 | 4 | 35 | 21 | 55 |
| 2 | San Diego Wave (W) | 27 | 16 | 3 | 8 | 40 | 28 | 51 |
| 3 | Washington Spirit (W) | 27 | 15 | 4 | 8 | 39 | 26 | 49 |
| 4 | Utah Royals (W) | 27 | 14 | 4 | 9 | 44 | 35 | 46 |
| 5 | Kansas City Current (W) | 27 | 13 | 5 | 9 | 48 | 38 | 44 |
| 6 | Angel City FC (W) | 27 | 12 | 7 | 8 | 45 | 29 | 43 |
| 7 | Portland Thorns (W) | 27 | 12 | 7 | 8 | 45 | 39 | 43 |
| 8 | North Carolina Courage (W) | 27 | 13 | 3 | 11 | 50 | 39 | 42 |
| 9 | Reign FC (W) | 27 | 12 | 4 | 11 | 33 | 32 | 40 |
| 10 | Denver Summit FC (W) | 27 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 45 | 37 | 38 |
| 11 | Orlando Pride (W) | 27 | 10 | 3 | 14 | 36 | 43 | 33 |
| 12 | Houston Dash (W) | 27 | 8 | 6 | 13 | 34 | 39 | 30 |
| 13 | Boston Legacy FC (W) | 27 | 8 | 5 | 14 | 36 | 46 | 29 |
| 14 | Bay FC (W) | 27 | 7 | 5 | 15 | 28 | 42 | 26 |
| 15 | Racing Louisville FC (W) | 27 | 7 | 3 | 17 | 36 | 52 | 24 |
| 16 | Chicago Stars (W) | 27 | 5 | 2 | 20 | 15 | 63 | 17 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Bay FC (W) | Portland Thorns (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Orlando Pride (W) | 1-3 L | 4-1 W |
| Denver Summit FC (W) | 2-2 D | 1-0 W |
| Washington Spirit (W) | 0-1 L | 1-2 L |
| Houston Dash (W) | 1-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Utah Royals (W) | 2-3 L | 1-5 L |
| Chicago Stars (W) | 0-0 D | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 1 W 2 D 3 L | 2 W 2 D 2 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Bay FC (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/10 | Kansas City Current (W) USA NWSL Women |
1-1 | 1-5 | 2 | 0 | L |
| 27/09 | Orlando Pride (W) USA NWSL Women |
1-1 | 1-3 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 21/09 | Racing Louisville FC (W) USA NWSL Women |
0-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 17/09 | Denver Summit FC (W) USA NWSL Women |
0-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 2 | D |
| 13/09 | Reign FC (W) USA NWSL Women |
0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 05/09 | Kansas City Current (W) USA NWSL Women |
1-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 30/08 | Washington Spirit (W) USA NWSL Women |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 24/08 | Houston Dash (W) USA NWSL Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 15/08 | Utah Royals (W) USA NWSL Women |
2-2 | 2-3 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 10/08 | Chicago Stars (W) USA NWSL Women |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 2 | D |
Portland Thorns (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/10 | Boston Legacy FC (W) USA NWSL Women |
0-2 | 2-4 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 27/09 | Houston Dash (W) USA NWSL Women |
0-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 2 | D |
| 19/09 | Orlando Pride (W) USA NWSL Women |
2-1 | 4-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 14/09 | Chicago Stars (W) USA NWSL Women |
1-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 1 | D |
| 06/09 | Washington Spirit (W) USA NWSL Women |
1-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 29/08 | NJ/NY Gotham FC (W) USA NWSL Women |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 23/08 | Denver Summit FC (W) USA NWSL Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 16/08 | Orlando Pride (W) USA NWSL Women |
0-0 | 2-1 | 0 | 3 | W |
| 09/08 | Boston Legacy FC (W) USA NWSL Women |
4-2 | 4-3 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 03/08 | Utah Royals (W) USA NWSL Women |
1-1 | 1-5 | 2 | 0 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Bay FC (W) vs Portland Thorns (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Portland Thorns (W) win (38%). Probabilities: Bay FC (W) 36%, draw 25%, Portland Thorns (W) 38%.
How many goals are expected in Bay FC (W) vs Portland Thorns (W)?
The model expects 3.06 goals (Bay FC (W) 1.5 · Portland Thorns (W) 1.56), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.
Will both teams score in Bay FC (W) vs Portland Thorns (W)?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.