Football · USA NWSL Women · 16/07, 02:00
Prediction: NJ/NY Gotham FC (W) vs Washington Spirit (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.02Total
NJ/NY Gotham FC (W)1.09
Washington Spirit (W)0.93
1X2
NJ/NY Gotham FC (W)
Draw
Washington Spirit (W)
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 67%
Not both to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
NJ/NY Gotham FC (W)
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
Washington Spirit (W)
8-0-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
NJ/NY Gotham FC (W)
3–3–0
Washington Spirit (W)
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · NJ/NY Gotham FC (W) 1549 · Washington Spirit (W) 1577
| NJ/NY Gotham FC (W) | Draw | Washington Spirit (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 38% | 33% | 29% |
| Market | 40% | 28% | 32% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.02 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours NJ/NY Gotham FC (W): 3-3-0.
- Cards-heavy: 5.1 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| NJ/NY Gotham FC (W) | Washington Spirit (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 1.1 | 2.1 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.6 | 1 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 60/10/30% | 30/60/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 5 | 1.5 / 3.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.3 / 0 | 2.8 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · NJ/NY Gotham FC (W) 3–3–0 Washington Spirit (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/11/25 USA NWSL Women | Washington Spirit (W) | 0-1 HT 0-0 | NJ/NY Gotham FC (W) |
| 02/10/25 CONCACAF Women Champions Cup | NJ/NY Gotham FC (W) | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Washington Spirit (W) |
| 09/08/25 USA NWSL Women | NJ/NY Gotham FC (W) | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Washington Spirit (W) |
| 26/04/25 USA NWSL Women | Washington Spirit (W) | 0-3 HT 0-3 | NJ/NY Gotham FC (W) |
| 16/11/24 USA NWSL Women | Washington Spirit (W) | 1-1 HT 0-0 | NJ/NY Gotham FC (W) |
| 29/07/24 NWSL x Liga MXF Summer Cup Women | NJ/NY Gotham FC (W) | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Washington Spirit (W) |
Standings · USA NWSL Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | San Diego Wave (W) | 15 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 21 | 15 | 28 |
| 2 | Washington Spirit (W) | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 22 | 10 | 27 |
| 3 | Portland Thorns (W) | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 24 | 16 | 27 |
| 4 | NJ/NY Gotham FC (W) | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 8 | 24 |
| 5 | Utah Royals (W) | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 21 | 16 | 24 |
| 6 | Kansas City Current (W) | 14 | 8 | 0 | 6 | 21 | 20 | 24 |
| 7 | North Carolina Courage (W) | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 20 | 16 | 21 |
| 8 | Orlando Pride (W) | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 21 | 19 | 20 |
| 9 | Angel City FC (W) | 13 | 6 | 1 | 6 | 20 | 14 | 19 |
| 10 | Reign FC (W) | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 13 | 16 | 17 |
| 11 | Denver Summit FC (W) | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 19 | 18 | 16 |
| 12 | Houston Dash (W) | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 17 | 23 | 15 |
| 13 | Bay FC (W) | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 19 | 15 |
| 14 | Boston Legacy FC (W) | 14 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 15 | 21 | 13 |
| 15 | Chicago Stars (W) | 14 | 4 | 0 | 10 | 8 | 28 | 12 |
| 16 | Racing Louisville FC (W) | 13 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 15 | 26 | 7 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | NJ/NY Gotham FC (W) | Washington Spirit (W) |
|---|---|---|
| San Diego Wave (W) | 0-2 L | 1-2 L |
| Kansas City Current (W) | 2-0 W | 4-0 W |
| Houston Dash (W) | 1-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Pachuca (W) | 0-3 L | 1-0 W |
| Club America (W) | 1-4 L | 3-5 L |
| Reign FC (W) | 2-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Racing Louisville FC (W) | 1-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Record vs common | 4 W 0 D 3 L | 5 W 0 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Washington Spirit (W) (4 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
NJ/NY Gotham FC (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07 | Utah Royals (W) USA NWSL Women |
2-1 | 3-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 05/07 | San Diego Wave (W) USA NWSL Women |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 27/06 | Kansas City Current (W) USA NWSL Women |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 31/05 | Houston Dash (W) USA NWSL Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 24/05 | Pachuca (W) CONCACAF Women Champions Cup |
0-2 | 0-3 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 21/05 | Club America (W) CONCACAF Women Champions Cup |
0-1 | 1-4 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 16/05 | Reign FC (W) USA NWSL Women |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 10/05 | Boston Legacy FC (W) USA NWSL Women |
1-1 | 1-1 | 11 | 4 | D |
| 03/05 | Racing Louisville FC (W) USA NWSL Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 30/04 | Chicago Stars (W) USA NWSL Women |
2-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 1 | W |
Washington Spirit (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07 | North Carolina Courage (W) USA NWSL Women |
2-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 04/07 | Houston Dash (W) USA NWSL Women |
0-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 31/05 | Reign FC (W) USA NWSL Women |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 24/05 | Club America (W) CONCACAF Women Champions Cup |
1-2 | 3-5 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 21/05 | Pachuca (W) CONCACAF Women Champions Cup |
0-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 1 | W |
| 16/05 | San Diego Wave (W) USA NWSL Women |
1-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 11/05 | Reign FC (W) USA NWSL Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 02/05 | Orlando Pride (W) USA NWSL Women |
2-2 | 4-2 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 30/04 | Racing Louisville FC (W) USA NWSL Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 25/04 | Kansas City Current (W) USA NWSL Women |
2-0 | 4-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in NJ/NY Gotham FC (W) vs Washington Spirit (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is a NJ/NY Gotham FC (W) win (39%). Probabilities: NJ/NY Gotham FC (W) 39%, draw 30%, Washington Spirit (W) 31%.
How many goals are expected in NJ/NY Gotham FC (W) vs Washington Spirit (W)?
The model expects 2.02 goals (NJ/NY Gotham FC (W) 1.09 · Washington Spirit (W) 0.93), with a 55% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in NJ/NY Gotham FC (W) vs Washington Spirit (W)?
The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.