Football · USA NWSL Women · 25/07, 02:00

Prediction: Houston Dash (W) vs Bay FC (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.54Total

Houston Dash (W)1.24

Bay FC (W)1.3

1X2

34% 29% 37%

Houston Dash (W) Draw Bay FC (W)

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Houston Dash (W) 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

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Bay FC (W) 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Houston Dash (W) 1–2–2 Bay FC (W) (5 last)

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Bay FC (W) (rating 1438 vs 1503).
H2H favours Bay FC (W): 2-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 5.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Houston Dash (W)	Bay FC (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.8	1 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 1.1	0.7 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/30/70%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	0.7 / 2	1.9 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0	2.6 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.88

Under 2.51.90

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.45

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 08:11

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	2.96 → 2.52▼	Pinn 2.52
X	3.47 → 3.47	Pinn 3.47
2	2.15 → 2.46▲	Pinn 2.46

See the full journey (2)

Pinnacle margin 9.2%

Time*	1	X	2
03:11 +1’	2.96	3.47	2.15
08:11	2.52▼	3.47	2.46▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Houston Dash (W) 1–2–2 Bay FC (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/02/26 Women’s Friendly	Bay FC (W)	2-1 HT 1-0	Houston Dash (W)
03/08/25 USA NWSL Women	Bay FC (W)	2-2 HT 1-0	Houston Dash (W)
25/05/25 USA NWSL Women	Houston Dash (W)	2-2 HT 1-0	Bay FC (W)
03/11/24 USA NWSL Women	Houston Dash (W)	2-3 HT 1-2	Bay FC (W)
31/03/24 USA NWSL Women	Bay FC (W)	2-3 HT 1-0	Houston Dash (W)

Standings · USA NWSL Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	NJ/NY Gotham FC (W)	15	9	3	3	19	10	30
2	San Diego Wave (W)	16	9	2	5	23	17	29
3	Washington Spirit (W)	14	8	3	3	22	11	27
4	Portland Thorns (W)	16	8	3	5	25	18	27
5	Kansas City Current (W)	15	8	1	6	23	22	25
6	Utah Royals (W)	14	7	3	4	21	16	24
7	North Carolina Courage (W)	14	6	3	5	20	19	21
8	Orlando Pride (W)	15	6	2	7	21	20	20
9	Angel City FC (W)	13	6	1	6	20	14	19
10	Denver Summit FC (W)	14	5	4	5	21	19	19
11	Bay FC (W)	14	5	3	6	16	19	18
12	Reign FC (W)	14	5	2	7	15	19	17
13	Boston Legacy FC (W)	15	4	4	7	16	21	16
14	Houston Dash (W)	14	4	3	7	17	23	15
15	Chicago Stars (W)	14	4	0	10	8	28	12
16	Racing Louisville FC (W)	13	2	1	10	15	26	7

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Houston Dash (W)	Bay FC (W)
Racing Louisville FC (W)	1-1 D	2-0 W
NJ/NY Gotham FC (W)	0-1 L	0-3 L
San Diego Wave (W)	2-2 D	1-0 W
Utah Royals (W)	0-2 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Bay FC (W) (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Houston Dash (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
19/07	Racing Louisville FC (W) USA NWSL Women	0-1	1-1	1	6	D
13/07	Denver Summit FC (W) USA NWSL Women	1-2	2-2	1	0	D
04/07	Washington Spirit (W) USA NWSL Women	0-0	1-2	0	3	L
31/05	NJ/NY Gotham FC (W) USA NWSL Women	0-1	0-1	1	1	L
24/05	Angel City FC (W) USA NWSL Women	1-1	2-1	1	6	W
21/05	San Diego Wave (W) USA NWSL Women	0-1	2-2	2	5	D
16/05	Kansas City Current (W) USA NWSL Women	0-2	0-3	2	1	L
10/05	Denver Summit FC (W) USA NWSL Women	1-2	1-4	3	2	L
07/05	Utah Royals (W) USA NWSL Women	0-1	0-2	4	3	L
02/05	Reign FC (W) USA NWSL Women	0-0	0-0	5	4	D

Bay FC (W)

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	North Carolina Courage (W) USA NWSL Women	2-0	3-0	2	0	W
11/07	Racing Louisville FC (W) USA NWSL Women	1-0	2-0	0	2	W
05/07	Boston Legacy FC (W) USA NWSL Women	2-1	2-2	6	4	D
30/05	Orlando Pride (W) USA NWSL Women	1-1	1-3	4	0	L
24/05	Chicago Stars (W) USA NWSL Women	0-0	0-1	5	7	L
21/05	Portland Thorns (W) USA NWSL Women	0-1	0-2	8	2	L
16/05	Boston Legacy FC (W) USA NWSL Women	0-0	1-1	9	3	D
10/05	Utah Royals (W) USA NWSL Women	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
04/05	San Diego Wave (W) USA NWSL Women	1-0	1-0	2	6	W
25/04	NJ/NY Gotham FC (W) USA NWSL Women	0-3	0-3	2	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Houston Dash (W) vs Bay FC (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Bay FC (W) win (37%). Probabilities: Houston Dash (W) 34%, draw 29%, Bay FC (W) 37%.

How many goals are expected in Houston Dash (W) vs Bay FC (W)?

The model expects 2.54 goals (Houston Dash (W) 1.24 · Bay FC (W) 1.3), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Houston Dash (W) vs Bay FC (W)?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.