Football · USA NWSL Women · 02/08, 22:00
Prediction: Washington Spirit (W) vs San Diego Wave (W)
Team pages: Washington Spirit (W) · San Diego Wave (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.67Total
Washington Spirit (W)1.5
San Diego Wave (W)1.18
1X2
Washington Spirit (W)
Draw
San Diego Wave (W)
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Washington Spirit (W)
7-0-3 (W-D-L)
San Diego Wave (W)
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Washington Spirit (W)
1–4–1
San Diego Wave (W)
(6 last)
- San Diego Wave (W)2-1Washington Spirit (W)
- Washington Spirit (W)2-1San Diego Wave (W)
- San Diego Wave (W)0-0Washington Spirit (W)
- San Diego Wave (W)1-1Washington Spirit (W)
- Washington Spirit (W)1-1San Diego Wave (W)
- San Diego Wave (W)2-2Washington Spirit (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Washington Spirit (W) 1582 · San Diego Wave (W) 1510
| Washington Spirit (W) | Draw | San Diego Wave (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 28% | 29% |
| Market | 44% | 28% | 29% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.67 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Washington Spirit (W) (rating 1582 vs 1510).
- Cards-heavy: 5.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Washington Spirit (W) | San Diego Wave (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 1.1 | 1.6 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.5 | 0.6 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 40/20/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.5 / 3.4 | 1.6 / 4.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.9 / 0 | 3 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Washington Spirit (W) 1–4–1 San Diego Wave (W)
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/05/26 USA NWSL Women | San Diego Wave (W) | 2-1 HT 1-1 | Washington Spirit (W) |
| 05/10/25 USA NWSL Women | Washington Spirit (W) | 2-1 HT 1-0 | San Diego Wave (W) |
| 23/06/25 USA NWSL Women | San Diego Wave (W) | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Washington Spirit (W) |
| 02/09/24 USA NWSL Women | San Diego Wave (W) | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Washington Spirit (W) |
| 16/06/24 USA NWSL Women | Washington Spirit (W) | 1-1 HT 0-1 | San Diego Wave (W) |
| 09/07/23 USA NWSL Women | San Diego Wave (W) | 2-2 HT 0-1 | Washington Spirit (W) |
Standings · USA NWSL Women
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Washington Spirit (W) | 17 | 11 | 3 | 3 | 26 | 12 | 36 |
| 2 | NJ/NY Gotham FC (W) | 17 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 22 | 12 | 34 |
| 3 | Utah Royals (W) | 17 | 9 | 3 | 5 | 26 | 18 | 30 |
| 4 | San Diego Wave (W) | 17 | 9 | 2 | 6 | 23 | 19 | 29 |
| 5 | Portland Thorns (W) | 17 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 27 | 20 | 28 |
| 6 | Kansas City Current (W) | 17 | 9 | 1 | 7 | 28 | 24 | 28 |
| 7 | North Carolina Courage (W) | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 26 | 23 | 24 |
| 8 | Orlando Pride (W) | 18 | 7 | 2 | 9 | 22 | 26 | 23 |
| 9 | Angel City FC (W) | 15 | 7 | 1 | 7 | 23 | 16 | 22 |
| 10 | Reign FC (W) | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 17 | 19 | 20 |
| 11 | Denver Summit FC (W) | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 21 | 20 | 19 |
| 12 | Houston Dash (W) | 16 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 19 | 24 | 19 |
| 13 | Boston Legacy FC (W) | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 18 | 23 | 19 |
| 14 | Bay FC (W) | 16 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 16 | 21 | 18 |
| 15 | Chicago Stars (W) | 16 | 4 | 0 | 12 | 8 | 31 | 12 |
| 16 | Racing Louisville FC (W) | 16 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 19 | 33 | 11 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Washington Spirit (W) | San Diego Wave (W) |
|---|---|---|
| NJ/NY Gotham FC (W) | 0-1 L | 2-0 W |
| Houston Dash (W) | 2-1 W | 2-2 D |
| Reign FC (W) | 2-1 W | 0-2 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 1 L | 1 W 1 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Washington Spirit (W) (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Washington Spirit (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/07 | Utah Royals (W) USA NWSL Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 27/07 | Denver Summit FC (W) USA NWSL Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 20/07 | Boston Legacy FC (W) USA NWSL Women |
2-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 16/07 | NJ/NY Gotham FC (W) USA NWSL Women |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 12/07 | North Carolina Courage (W) USA NWSL Women |
2-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 04/07 | Houston Dash (W) USA NWSL Women |
0-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 31/05 | Reign FC (W) USA NWSL Women |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 24/05 | Club America (W) CONCACAF Women Champions Cup |
1-2 | 3-5 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 21/05 | Pachuca (W) CONCACAF Women Champions Cup |
0-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 1 | W |
| 16/05 | San Diego Wave (W) USA NWSL Women |
1-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
San Diego Wave (W)
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07 | Reign FC (W) USA NWSL Women |
0-2 | 0-2 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 18/07 | Kansas City Current (W) USA NWSL Women |
1-0 | 2-2 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 12/07 | Angel City FC (W) USA NWSL Women |
0-2 | 0-2 | 10 | 4 | L |
| 05/07 | NJ/NY Gotham FC (W) USA NWSL Women |
1-0 | 2-0 | 0 | 2 | W |
| 29/06 | Portland Thorns (W) Women’s Friendly |
1-2 | 4-3 | – | – | W |
| 31/05 | Chicago Stars (W) USA NWSL Women |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 25/05 | Orlando Pride (W) USA NWSL Women |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 21/05 | Houston Dash (W) USA NWSL Women |
1-0 | 2-2 | 9 | 5 | D |
| 16/05 | Washington Spirit (W) USA NWSL Women |
1-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 10/05 | Angel City FC (W) USA NWSL Women |
0-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 1 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Washington Spirit (W) vs San Diego Wave (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Washington Spirit (W) win (44%). Probabilities: Washington Spirit (W) 44%, draw 28%, San Diego Wave (W) 29%.
How many goals are expected in Washington Spirit (W) vs San Diego Wave (W)?
The model expects 2.67 goals (Washington Spirit (W) 1.5 · San Diego Wave (W) 1.18), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Washington Spirit (W) vs San Diego Wave (W)?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.