Football · USA NWSL Women · 09/08, 00:30
Prediction: Washington Spirit (W) vs North Carolina Courage (W)
Team pages: Washington Spirit (W) · North Carolina Courage (W)
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.74Total
Washington Spirit (W)1.55
North Carolina Courage (W)1.2
1X2
Washington Spirit (W)
Draw
North Carolina Courage (W)
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Washington Spirit (W)
7-0-3 (W-D-L)
North Carolina Courage (W)
6-0-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Washington Spirit (W)
3–1–2
North Carolina Courage (W)
(6 last)
- North Carolina Courage (W)0-2Washington Spirit (W)
- North Carolina Courage (W)1-1Washington Spirit (W)
- Washington Spirit (W)3-1North Carolina Courage (W)
- North Carolina Courage (W)0-1Washington Spirit (W)
- Washington Spirit (W)0-1North Carolina Courage (W)
- Washington Spirit (W)0-1North Carolina Courage (W)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Washington Spirit (W) 1564 · North Carolina Courage (W) 1520
| Washington Spirit (W) | Draw | North Carolina Courage (W) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 28% | 28% |
| Market | 45% | 26% | 29% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.74 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Washington Spirit (W) (rating 1564 vs 1520).
- H2H favours Washington Spirit (W): 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 4.8 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Washington Spirit (W) | North Carolina Courage (W) | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1 | 1.9 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.4 | 0.5 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 20/50/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.2 / 3.1 | 1.9 / 4.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.9 / 0 | 1.9 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Washington Spirit (W) 3–1–2 North Carolina Courage (W)
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07/26 USA NWSL Women | North Carolina Courage (W) | 0-2 HT 0-2 | Washington Spirit (W) |
| 12/10/25 USA NWSL Women | North Carolina Courage (W) | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Washington Spirit (W) |
| 08/06/25 USA NWSL Women | Washington Spirit (W) | 3-1 HT 2-1 | North Carolina Courage (W) |
| 03/11/24 USA NWSL Women | North Carolina Courage (W) | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Washington Spirit (W) |
| 30/06/24 USA NWSL Women | Washington Spirit (W) | 0-1 HT 0-1 | North Carolina Courage (W) |
| 15/10/23 USA NWSL Women | Washington Spirit (W) | 0-1 HT 0-1 | North Carolina Courage (W) |
Standings · USA NWSL Women
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | NJ/NY Gotham FC (W) | 19 | 12 | 4 | 3 | 24 | 12 | 40 |
| 2 | Washington Spirit (W) | 18 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 26 | 13 | 36 |
| 3 | Utah Royals (W) | 18 | 10 | 3 | 5 | 31 | 19 | 33 |
| 4 | San Diego Wave (W) | 19 | 10 | 2 | 7 | 24 | 20 | 32 |
| 5 | Kansas City Current (W) | 18 | 9 | 2 | 7 | 29 | 25 | 29 |
| 6 | Portland Thorns (W) | 18 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 28 | 25 | 28 |
| 7 | North Carolina Courage (W) | 17 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 28 | 23 | 27 |
| 8 | Angel City FC (W) | 16 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 24 | 17 | 23 |
| 9 | Reign FC (W) | 16 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 20 | 21 | 23 |
| 10 | Orlando Pride (W) | 19 | 7 | 2 | 10 | 23 | 29 | 23 |
| 11 | Denver Summit FC (W) | 17 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 22 | 23 | 20 |
| 12 | Boston Legacy FC (W) | 18 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 19 | 24 | 20 |
| 13 | Houston Dash (W) | 17 | 5 | 4 | 8 | 19 | 25 | 19 |
| 14 | Bay FC (W) | 17 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 18 | 24 | 18 |
| 15 | Racing Louisville FC (W) | 18 | 5 | 2 | 11 | 24 | 35 | 17 |
| 16 | Chicago Stars (W) | 17 | 4 | 0 | 13 | 9 | 33 | 12 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Washington Spirit (W) | North Carolina Courage (W) |
|---|---|---|
| Utah Royals (W) | 1-0 W | 1-4 L |
| Denver Summit FC (W) | 1-0 W | 2-0 W |
| Reign FC (W) | 2-1 W | 3-1 W |
| Record vs common | 3 W 0 D 0 L | 2 W 0 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: North Carolina Courage (W) (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Washington Spirit (W)
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/08 | San Diego Wave (W) USA NWSL Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 30/07 | Utah Royals (W) USA NWSL Women |
1-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 27/07 | Denver Summit FC (W) USA NWSL Women |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 20/07 | Boston Legacy FC (W) USA NWSL Women |
2-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 16/07 | NJ/NY Gotham FC (W) USA NWSL Women |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 4 | L |
| 12/07 | North Carolina Courage (W) USA NWSL Women |
2-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 04/07 | Houston Dash (W) USA NWSL Women |
0-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 31/05 | Reign FC (W) USA NWSL Women |
1-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 24/05 | Club America (W) CONCACAF Women Champions Cup |
1-2 | 3-5 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 21/05 | Pachuca (W) CONCACAF Women Champions Cup |
0-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 1 | W |
North Carolina Courage (W)
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/08 | Denver Summit FC (W) USA NWSL Women |
0-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 01/08 | Orlando Pride (W) USA NWSL Women |
3-0 | 5-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 26/07 | Utah Royals (W) USA NWSL Women |
0-2 | 1-4 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 18/07 | Bay FC (W) USA NWSL Women |
0-2 | 0-3 | 8 | 0 | L |
| 12/07 | Washington Spirit (W) USA NWSL Women |
0-2 | 0-2 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 05/07 | Reign FC (W) USA NWSL Women |
1-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 01/06 | Angel City FC (W) USA NWSL Women |
0-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 23/05 | Racing Louisville FC (W) USA NWSL Women |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 17/05 | Chicago Stars (W) USA NWSL Women |
0-0 | 4-0 | 7 | 2 | W |
| 09/05 | Orlando Pride (W) USA NWSL Women |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 5 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Washington Spirit (W) vs North Carolina Courage (W)?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Washington Spirit (W) win (45%). Probabilities: Washington Spirit (W) 45%, draw 27%, North Carolina Courage (W) 29%.
How many goals are expected in Washington Spirit (W) vs North Carolina Courage (W)?
The model expects 2.74 goals (Washington Spirit (W) 1.55 · North Carolina Courage (W) 1.2), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Washington Spirit (W) vs North Carolina Courage (W)?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.