Football · USA NWSL Women · 09/08, 04:00

Prediction: Denver Summit FC (W) vs Utah Royals (W)

Team pages: Denver Summit FC (W) · Utah Royals (W)

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.91Total

Denver Summit FC (W)1.46

Utah Royals (W)1.46

1X2

37% 26% 37%

Denver Summit FC (W) Draw Utah Royals (W)

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Denver Summit FC (W) 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WWLWLDWLDL

Utah Royals (W) 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

DWWDLLWWLW

Head-to-head

Denver Summit FC (W) 1–1 Utah Royals (W) (2 last)

Utah Royals (W)2-1Denver Summit FC (W)
Denver Summit FC (W)2-0Utah Royals (W)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Denver Summit FC (W) 1498 · Utah Royals (W) 1517

	Denver Summit FC (W)	Draw	Utah Royals (W)
Our model	36%	27%	36%
Market	37%	26%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 2.91 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 10.9 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Denver Summit FC (W)	Utah Royals (W)
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.4	1.9 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.6	0.9 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.5 / 6	2.2 / 4.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.6 / 0.1	2.2 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.45

X3.50

22.45

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.98

2 (0)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 31.95

Under 31.85

Diff.: 0 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 13:49

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.45▲	Pinn 2.47
X	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.58 ★
2	2.55 → 2.45▼	Pinn 2.46

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 10.2% Pinnacle margin 9.1%

Time*	1	X	2
17:32 +2’	2.30	3.50	2.55
22:07 +1’	2.15▼	3.50	2.75▲
13:44 +5’	2.45▲	3.50	2.45▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
05:26	2.09	3.53	3.02
11:33 +2’	2.29▲	3.42▼	2.75▼
08:19	2.28▼	3.45▲	2.75
09:39	2.00▼	3.62▲	3.16▲
11:07 +1’	2.12▲	3.51▼	2.98▼
13:06	2.25▲	3.49▼	2.78▼
22:02 +6’	2.25	3.48▼	2.78
01:45	2.35▲	3.43▼	2.67▼
13:37 +13’	2.47▲	3.58▲	2.46▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Denver Summit FC (W) 1–0–1 Utah Royals (W)

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/05/26 USA NWSL Women	Utah Royals (W)	2-1 HT 1-1	Denver Summit FC (W)
15/02/26 Women’s Friendly	Denver Summit FC (W)	2-0 HT 1-0	Utah Royals (W)

Standings · USA NWSL Women

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	NJ/NY Gotham FC (W)	19	12	4	3	24	12	40
2	Washington Spirit (W)	18	11	3	4	26	13	36
3	Utah Royals (W)	18	10	3	5	31	19	33
4	San Diego Wave (W)	19	10	2	7	24	20	32
5	Kansas City Current (W)	18	9	2	7	29	25	29
6	Portland Thorns (W)	18	8	4	6	28	25	28
7	North Carolina Courage (W)	17	8	3	6	28	23	27
8	Angel City FC (W)	16	7	2	7	24	17	23
9	Reign FC (W)	16	7	2	7	20	21	23
10	Orlando Pride (W)	19	7	2	10	23	29	23
11	Denver Summit FC (W)	17	5	5	7	22	23	20
12	Boston Legacy FC (W)	18	5	5	8	19	24	20
13	Houston Dash (W)	17	5	4	8	19	25	19
14	Bay FC (W)	17	5	3	9	18	24	18
15	Racing Louisville FC (W)	18	5	2	11	24	35	17
16	Chicago Stars (W)	17	4	0	13	9	33	12

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Denver Summit FC (W)	Utah Royals (W)
North Carolina Courage (W)	0-2 L	4-1 W
Washington Spirit (W)	0-1 L	0-1 L
Portland Thorns (W)	2-1 W	5-1 W
Racing Louisville FC (W)	1-0 W	2-1 W
Orlando Pride (W)	3-1 W	1-0 W
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 2 L	4 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Utah Royals (W) (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Denver Summit FC (W)

WWLWLDWLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/08	North Carolina Courage (W) USA NWSL Women	0-0	0-2	6	2	L
03/08	Boston Legacy FC (W) USA NWSL Women	0-1	1-1	6	1	D
27/07	Washington Spirit (W) USA NWSL Women	0-0	0-1	5	3	L
18/07	Portland Thorns (W) USA NWSL Women	1-1	2-1	6	2	W
13/07	Houston Dash (W) USA NWSL Women	2-1	2-2	6	0	D
04/07	Kansas City Current (W) USA NWSL Women	0-1	0-3	5	1	L
30/05	Racing Louisville FC (W) USA NWSL Women	0-0	1-0	7	3	W
24/05	Utah Royals (W) USA NWSL Women	1-1	1-2	8	1	L
17/05	Orlando Pride (W) USA NWSL Women	1-0	3-1	3	2	W
10/05	Houston Dash (W) USA NWSL Women	2-1	4-1	8	2	W

Utah Royals (W)

DWWDLLWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/08	Portland Thorns (W) USA NWSL Women	1-1	5-1	5	0	W
30/07	Washington Spirit (W) USA NWSL Women	0-1	0-1	10	1	L
26/07	North Carolina Courage (W) USA NWSL Women	2-0	4-1	5	1	W
19/07	Orlando Pride (W) USA NWSL Women	1-0	1-0	6	2	W
11/07	NJ/NY Gotham FC (W) USA NWSL Women	1-2	1-3	1	5	L
05/07	Chicago Stars (W) USA NWSL Women	1-1	2-3	4	2	L
30/05	Portland Thorns (W) USA NWSL Women	1-1	2-2	4	5	D
24/05	Denver Summit FC (W) USA NWSL Women	1-1	2-1	2	1	W
18/05	Racing Louisville FC (W) USA NWSL Women	1-0	2-1	8	1	W
10/05	Bay FC (W) USA NWSL Women	0-0	0-0	4	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Denver Summit FC (W) vs Utah Royals (W)?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Denver Summit FC (W) win (37%). Probabilities: Denver Summit FC (W) 37%, draw 26%, Utah Royals (W) 37%.

How many goals are expected in Denver Summit FC (W) vs Utah Royals (W)?

The model expects 2.91 goals (Denver Summit FC (W) 1.46 · Utah Royals (W) 1.46), with a 54% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Denver Summit FC (W) vs Utah Royals (W)?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.