Football · Australia Northern NSW Premier League · 25/07, 08:30

Prediction: Valentine Phoenix vs Charlestown Azzurri

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.38Total

Valentine Phoenix1.77

Charlestown Azzurri1.61

1X2

41% 24% 35%

Valentine Phoenix Draw Charlestown Azzurri

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Valentine Phoenix 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

LDWDDLWDLW

Charlestown Azzurri 0-2-8 (W-D-L)

LLDLLDLLLL

Head-to-head

Valentine Phoenix 1–1–4 Charlestown Azzurri (6 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Valentine Phoenix 1505 · Charlestown Azzurri 1378

	Valentine Phoenix	Draw	Charlestown Azzurri
Our model	41%	25%	34%
Market	42%	23%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 3.38 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Valentine Phoenix (rating 1505 vs 1378).
H2H favours Charlestown Azzurri: 4-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Valentine Phoenix	Charlestown Azzurri
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 1.6	0.9 / 3.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 1	0.2 / 1.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/44/56%	0/50/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 4.6	1.8 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.1	4.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.80

22.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.00

2 (+0.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 31.80

Under 32.00

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.6

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 03:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 2.15▲	Bet365 2.15
X	3.90 → 3.80▼	Bet365 3.80
2	2.88 → 2.55▼	Bet365 2.55

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
01:49 +25’	1.95	3.90	2.88
03:09 +3’	2.15▲	3.80▼	2.55▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Valentine Phoenix 1–1–4 Charlestown Azzurri

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/04/26 Australia Northern NSW Premier League	Charlestown Azzurri	1-2 HT 0-1	Valentine Phoenix
06/07/25 Australia Northern NSW Premier League	Charlestown Azzurri	0-0 HT 0-0	Valentine Phoenix
05/04/25 Australia Northern NSW Premier League	Valentine Phoenix	1-5 HT 0-2	Charlestown Azzurri
18/08/24 Australia Northern NSW Premier League	Valentine Phoenix	1-2 HT 1-2	Charlestown Azzurri
12/05/24 Australia Northern NSW Premier League	Charlestown Azzurri	3-0 HT 2-0	Valentine Phoenix
10/06/23 Australia Northern NSW Premier League	Valentine Phoenix	0-1 HT 0-1	Charlestown Azzurri

Standings · Australia Northern NSW Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Broadmeadow Magic	18	12	4	2	49	22	40
2	Weston Workers FC	19	11	3	5	44	31	36
3	Maitland FC	18	10	3	5	34	28	33
4	Belmont Swansea United SC	18	9	5	4	42	35	32
5	Edgeworth Eagles	17	8	5	4	34	29	29
6	Cooks Hill United	18	7	5	6	36	31	26
7	Lambton Jaffas	19	6	4	9	35	30	22
8	Newcastle Olympic FC	19	5	6	8	38	34	21
9	Valentine Phoenix	18	5	4	9	18	36	19
10	Adamstown Rosebud	18	4	5	9	25	36	17
11	Kahibah FC	18	4	2	12	28	46	14
12	Charlestown Azzurri	18	4	2	12	24	49	14

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Valentine Phoenix	Charlestown Azzurri
Kahibah FC	3-2 W	1-4 L
Cooks Hill United	1-3 L	0-4 L
Lambton Jaffas	1-1 D	1-3 L
Edgeworth Eagles	2-1 W	0-0 D
Broadmeadow Magic	1-1 D	3-5 L
Belmont Swansea United SC	1-1 D	1-3 L
Weston Workers FC	2-0 W	0-5 L
Newcastle Olympic FC	1-6 L	1-7 L
Record vs common	3 W 3 D 2 L	0 W 1 D 7 L

Better against common opponents: Valentine Phoenix (8 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Valentine Phoenix

LDWDDLWDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/07	Kahibah FC Australia Northern NSW Premier League	2-2	3-2	4	4	W
03/07	Cooks Hill United Australia Northern NSW Premier League	0-1	1-3	2	4	L
27/06	Lambton Jaffas Australia Northern NSW Premier League	0-0	1-1	6	5	D
20/06	Edgeworth Eagles Australia Northern NSW Premier League	0-1	2-1	3	2	W
13/06	Maitland FC Australia Northern NSW Premier League	0-1	0-1	7	6	L
06/06	Broadmeadow Magic Australia Northern NSW Premier League	0-0	1-1	2	2	D
16/05	Belmont Swansea United SC Australia Northern NSW Premier League	0-1	1-1	4	3	D
09/05	Weston Workers FC Australia Northern NSW Premier League	0-0	2-0	4	5	W
05/05	Maitland FC Australia Cup Qualifying	–	0-0	–	–	D
02/05	Newcastle Olympic FC Australia Northern NSW Premier League	1-3	1-6	9	5	L

Charlestown Azzurri

LLDLLDLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/07	Weston Workers FC Australia Northern NSW Premier League	0-3	0-5	3	2	L
11/07	Cooks Hill United Australia Northern NSW Premier League	0-3	0-4	6	3	L
01/07	Newcastle Olympic FC Australia Northern NSW Premier League	0-4	1-7	6	4	L
27/06	Belmont Swansea United SC Australia Northern NSW Premier League	0-3	1-3	5	6	L
24/06	Cooks Hill United Australia Northern NSW Premier League	0-0	2-2	0	6	D
21/06	Kahibah FC Australia Northern NSW Premier League	1-1	1-4	7	3	L
14/06	Lambton Jaffas Australia Northern NSW Premier League	0-2	1-3	5	5	L
06/06	Edgeworth Eagles Australia Cup Qualifying	0-0	0-0	4	6	D
16/05	Adamstown Rosebud Australia Northern NSW Premier League	0-0	0-2	6	5	L
10/05	Broadmeadow Magic Australia Northern NSW Premier League	1-1	3-5	3	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Valentine Phoenix vs Charlestown Azzurri?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Valentine Phoenix win (41%). Probabilities: Valentine Phoenix 41%, draw 24%, Charlestown Azzurri 35%.

How many goals are expected in Valentine Phoenix vs Charlestown Azzurri?

The model expects 3.38 goals (Valentine Phoenix 1.77 · Charlestown Azzurri 1.61), with a 54% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Valentine Phoenix vs Charlestown Azzurri?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.