Football · Australia Northern NSW Premier League · 01/08, 06:00

Prediction: Adamstown Rosebud vs Valentine Phoenix

Team pages: Adamstown Rosebud · Valentine Phoenix

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.98Total

Adamstown Rosebud1.67

Valentine Phoenix1.31

1X2

46% 24% 30%

Adamstown Rosebud Draw Valentine Phoenix

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Adamstown Rosebud 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LLDWWLDWLL

Valentine Phoenix 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

DWDDLWDLWW

Head-to-head

Adamstown Rosebud 4–2 Valentine Phoenix (6 last)

Valentine Phoenix0-3Adamstown Rosebud
Valentine Phoenix2-4Adamstown Rosebud
Adamstown Rosebud3-2Valentine Phoenix
Valentine Phoenix3-0Adamstown Rosebud
Adamstown Rosebud0-3Valentine Phoenix
Valentine Phoenix2-3Adamstown Rosebud

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Adamstown Rosebud 1488 · Valentine Phoenix 1504

	Adamstown Rosebud	Draw	Valentine Phoenix
Our model	45%	26%	29%
Market	47%	22%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 2.98 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Adamstown Rosebud: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 5.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Adamstown Rosebud	Valentine Phoenix
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 2	1.2 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.7	0.2 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	0/56/44%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 4.1	1.2 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2 / 0.1	3.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.91

X4.00

22.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.98

2 (+0.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 31.80

Under 32.00

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.91 → 1.91	Bet365 1.91
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
02:12 +2’	1.91	4.00	2.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Adamstown Rosebud 4–0–2 Valentine Phoenix

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 Australia Northern NSW Premier League	Valentine Phoenix	0-3 HT 0-2	Adamstown Rosebud
25/06/25 Australia Northern NSW Premier League	Valentine Phoenix	2-4 HT 2-1	Adamstown Rosebud
21/02/25 Australia Northern NSW Premier League	Adamstown Rosebud	3-2 HT 0-0	Valentine Phoenix
03/08/24 Australia Northern NSW Premier League	Valentine Phoenix	3-0 HT 0-0	Adamstown Rosebud
09/03/24 Australia Northern NSW Premier League	Adamstown Rosebud	0-3 HT 0-1	Valentine Phoenix
20/05/23 Australia Northern NSW Premier League	Valentine Phoenix	2-3 HT 0-0	Adamstown Rosebud

Standings · Australia Northern NSW Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Broadmeadow Magic	19	13	4	2	50	22	43
2	Weston Workers FC	19	11	3	5	44	31	36
3	Maitland FC	19	10	3	6	34	29	33
4	Edgeworth Eagles	18	9	5	4	36	29	32
5	Belmont Swansea United SC	19	9	5	5	43	38	32
6	Cooks Hill United	19	8	5	6	37	31	29
7	Lambton Jaffas	20	6	4	10	35	31	22
8	Valentine Phoenix	19	6	4	9	19	36	22
9	Newcastle Olympic FC	20	5	6	9	38	36	21
10	Adamstown Rosebud	18	4	5	9	25	36	17
11	Kahibah FC	19	5	2	12	31	47	17
12	Charlestown Azzurri	19	4	2	13	24	50	14

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Adamstown Rosebud	Valentine Phoenix
Maitland FC	1-3 L	0-1 L
Edgeworth Eagles	2-3 L	2-1 W
Kahibah FC	2-1 W	3-2 W
Lambton Jaffas	1-1 D	1-1 D
Broadmeadow Magic	1-5 L	1-1 D
Charlestown Azzurri	2-0 W	1-0 W
Belmont Swansea United SC	2-2 D	1-1 D
Cooks Hill United	1-3 L	1-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 4 L	3 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Valentine Phoenix (3 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Adamstown Rosebud

LLDWWLDWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/07	Maitland FC Australia Northern NSW Premier League	0-1	1-3	0	1	L
27/06	Edgeworth Eagles Australia Northern NSW Premier League	2-1	2-3	1	1	L
24/06	Kahibah FC Australia Northern NSW Premier League	0-1	2-1	7	2	W
20/06	Lambton Jaffas Australia Northern NSW Premier League	1-1	1-1	5	1	D
13/06	Broadmeadow Magic Australia Northern NSW Premier League	1-0	1-5	2	3	L
30/05	Newcastle Olympic FC Australia Northern NSW Premier League	2-0	2-0	5	2	W
16/05	Charlestown Azzurri Australia Northern NSW Premier League	0-0	2-0	5	5	W
09/05	Belmont Swansea United SC Australia Northern NSW Premier League	0-2	2-2	4	2	D
02/05	Cooks Hill United Australia Northern NSW Premier League	0-1	1-3	5	2	L
29/04	Lambton Jaffas Australia Northern NSW Premier League	0-0	1-2	7	2	L

Valentine Phoenix

DWDDLWDLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	Charlestown Azzurri Australia Northern NSW Premier League	0-0	1-0	4	3	W
12/07	Kahibah FC Australia Northern NSW Premier League	2-2	3-2	4	4	W
03/07	Cooks Hill United Australia Northern NSW Premier League	0-1	1-3	2	4	L
27/06	Lambton Jaffas Australia Northern NSW Premier League	0-0	1-1	6	5	D
20/06	Edgeworth Eagles Australia Northern NSW Premier League	0-1	2-1	3	2	W
13/06	Maitland FC Australia Northern NSW Premier League	0-1	0-1	7	6	L
06/06	Broadmeadow Magic Australia Northern NSW Premier League	0-0	1-1	2	2	D
16/05	Belmont Swansea United SC Australia Northern NSW Premier League	0-1	1-1	4	3	D
09/05	Weston Workers FC Australia Northern NSW Premier League	0-0	2-0	4	5	W
05/05	Maitland FC Australia Cup Qualifying	–	0-0	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Adamstown Rosebud vs Valentine Phoenix?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Adamstown Rosebud win (46%). Probabilities: Adamstown Rosebud 46%, draw 24%, Valentine Phoenix 30%.

How many goals are expected in Adamstown Rosebud vs Valentine Phoenix?

The model expects 2.98 goals (Adamstown Rosebud 1.67 · Valentine Phoenix 1.31), with a 51% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Adamstown Rosebud vs Valentine Phoenix?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.