Football · South Korea K League 1 · 22/07, 12:30
Prediction: Gwangju FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.58Total
Gwangju FC0.98
Gimcheon Sangmu FC1.6
1X2
Gwangju FC
Draw
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 52%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Gwangju FC
0-3-7 (W-D-L)
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Gwangju FC
2–3–1
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Gwangju FC 1407 · Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1461
| Gwangju FC | Draw | Gimcheon Sangmu FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 22% | 27% | 51% |
| Market | 22% | 27% | 51% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.58 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Gimcheon Sangmu FC (rating 1407 vs 1461).
- H2H favours Gwangju FC: 2-3-1.
- Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Gwangju FC | Gimcheon Sangmu FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.4 / 2.5 | 1 / 1.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0 / 1 | 0.3 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/40/60% | 10/40/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.1 / 3.5 | 1.2 / 4.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.7 / 0 | 3.8 / 0.5 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Gwangju FC 2–3–1 Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17/03/26 South Korea K League 1 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Gwangju FC |
| 22/07/25 South Korea K League 1 | Gwangju FC | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC |
| 05/05/25 South Korea K League 1 | Gwangju FC | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC |
| 16/03/25 South Korea K League 1 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Gwangju FC |
| 28/09/24 South Korea K League 1 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Gwangju FC |
| 15/06/24 South Korea K League 1 | Gwangju FC | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC |
Standings · South Korea K League 1
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Seoul | 17 | 11 | 3 | 3 | 28 | 12 | 36 |
| 2 | Gangwon FC | 18 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 23 | 11 | 31 |
| 3 | Jeonbuk Motors | 18 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 25 | 16 | 29 |
| 4 | Ulsan HD | 18 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 26 | 26 | 28 |
| 5 | Pohang Steelers | 18 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 19 | 16 | 28 |
| 6 | Incheon Utd | 18 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 22 | 19 | 24 |
| 7 | FC Anyang | 17 | 5 | 8 | 4 | 22 | 19 | 23 |
| 8 | Jeju United | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 16 | 18 | 23 |
| 9 | Daejeon Hana Citizen | 18 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 21 | 20 | 19 |
| 10 | Bucheon | 17 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 14 | 18 | 19 |
| 11 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC | 18 | 2 | 10 | 6 | 17 | 25 | 16 |
| 12 | Gwangju FC | 17 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 8 | 41 | 8 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Gwangju FC | Gimcheon Sangmu FC |
|---|---|---|
| FC Anyang | 1-1 D | 2-2 D |
| Ulsan HD | 1-1 D | 1-2 L |
| Incheon Utd | 0-4 L | 0-3 L |
| FC Seoul | 0-1 L | 3-2 W |
| Gangwon FC | 0-0 D | 0-2 L |
| Jeonbuk Motors | 0-4 L | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 0 W 3 D 3 L | 1 W 1 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Gimcheon Sangmu FC (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Gwangju FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/07 | FC Anyang South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 11/07 | Pohang Steelers South Korea K League 1 |
0-1 | 0-3 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 05/07 | Ulsan HD South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 1 | D |
| 16/05 | Incheon Utd South Korea K League 1 |
0-2 | 0-4 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 12/05 | FC Seoul South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 09/05 | Gangwon FC South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 05/05 | Jeonbuk Motors South Korea K League 1 |
0-1 | 0-4 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 02/05 | Daejeon Hana Citizen South Korea K League 1 |
0-2 | 0-5 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 26/04 | FC Anyang South Korea K League 1 |
0-3 | 2-5 | 4 | 8 | L |
| 22/04 | Pohang Steelers South Korea K League 1 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 3 | L |
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/07 | Gangwon FC South Korea K League 1 |
0-2 | 0-2 | 3 | 6 | L |
| 11/07 | Bucheon South Korea K League 1 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 05/07 | Jeju United South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 17/05 | Jeonbuk Motors South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 13/05 | FC Anyang South Korea K League 1 |
0-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 09/05 | Incheon Utd South Korea K League 1 |
0-2 | 0-3 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 05/05 | Ulsan HD South Korea K League 1 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 1 | L |
| 02/05 | FC Seoul South Korea K League 1 |
1-1 | 3-2 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 25/04 | Bucheon South Korea K League 1 |
1-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 7 | W |
| 21/04 | Gangwon FC South Korea K League 1 |
0-2 | 0-3 | 4 | 6 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Gwangju FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Gimcheon Sangmu FC win (51%). Probabilities: Gwangju FC 22%, draw 27%, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 51%.
How many goals are expected in Gwangju FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
The model expects 2.58 goals (Gwangju FC 0.98 · Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.6), with a 54% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Gwangju FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.