Football · South Korea K League 1 · 26/07, 12:30
Prediction: Gwangju FC vs Jeju United
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.06Total
Gwangju FC0.75
Jeju United1.31
1X2
Gwangju FC
Draw
Jeju United
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 66%
Not both to score 52%
Most likely score
0-1
Recent form · 10 last
Gwangju FC
0-3-7 (W-D-L)
Jeju United
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Gwangju FC
4–2–0
Jeju United
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Gwangju FC 1426 · Jeju United 1471
| Gwangju FC | Draw | Jeju United | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 20% | 31% | 49% |
| Market | 22% | 28% | 51% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.06 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 69%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Jeju United (rating 1426 vs 1471).
- H2H favours Gwangju FC: 4-2-0.
- Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Gwangju FC | Jeju United | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.4 / 2.5 | 0.9 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0 / 1 | 0.2 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/40/60% | 10/50/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.1 / 3.5 | 1.8 / 4.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.7 / 0 | 3 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Gwangju FC 4–2–0 Jeju United
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/03/26 South Korea K League 1 | Jeju United | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Gwangju FC |
| 02/11/25 South Korea K League 1 | Gwangju FC | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Jeju United |
| 30/08/25 South Korea K League 1 | Jeju United | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Gwangju FC |
| 18/06/25 South Korea K League 1 | Jeju United | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Gwangju FC |
| 06/04/25 South Korea K League 1 | Gwangju FC | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Jeju United |
| 10/11/24 South Korea K League 1 | Jeju United | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Gwangju FC |
Standings · South Korea K League 1
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Seoul | 18 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 31 | 13 | 39 |
| 2 | Gangwon FC | 18 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 23 | 11 | 31 |
| 3 | Jeonbuk Motors | 18 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 25 | 16 | 29 |
| 4 | Ulsan HD | 18 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 26 | 26 | 28 |
| 5 | Pohang Steelers | 18 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 19 | 16 | 28 |
| 6 | FC Anyang | 18 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 23 | 20 | 24 |
| 7 | Incheon Utd | 18 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 22 | 19 | 24 |
| 8 | Jeju United | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 16 | 18 | 23 |
| 9 | Daejeon Hana Citizen | 18 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 21 | 20 | 19 |
| 10 | Bucheon | 18 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 15 | 21 | 19 |
| 11 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC | 18 | 2 | 10 | 6 | 17 | 25 | 16 |
| 12 | Gwangju FC | 18 | 1 | 6 | 11 | 9 | 42 | 9 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Gwangju FC | Jeju United |
|---|---|---|
| FC Anyang | 1-1 D | 1-2 L |
| Pohang Steelers | 0-3 L | 2-1 W |
| Ulsan HD | 1-1 D | 1-2 L |
| Incheon Utd | 0-4 L | 0-1 L |
| FC Seoul | 0-1 L | 2-1 W |
| Gangwon FC | 0-0 D | 1-1 D |
| Jeonbuk Motors | 0-4 L | 0-2 L |
| Daejeon Hana Citizen | 0-5 L | 0-0 D |
| Record vs common | 0 W 3 D 5 L | 2 W 2 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Jeju United (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Gwangju FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/07 | FC Anyang South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 11/07 | Pohang Steelers South Korea K League 1 |
0-1 | 0-3 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 05/07 | Ulsan HD South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 1 | D |
| 16/05 | Incheon Utd South Korea K League 1 |
0-2 | 0-4 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 12/05 | FC Seoul South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 09/05 | Gangwon FC South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 05/05 | Jeonbuk Motors South Korea K League 1 |
0-1 | 0-4 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 02/05 | Daejeon Hana Citizen South Korea K League 1 |
0-2 | 0-5 | 2 | 5 | L |
| 26/04 | FC Anyang South Korea K League 1 |
0-3 | 2-5 | 4 | 8 | L |
| 22/04 | Pohang Steelers South Korea K League 1 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 2 | 3 | L |
Jeju United
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/07 | Gangwon FC South Korea K League 1 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 18/07 | Pohang Steelers South Korea K League 1 |
0-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 12/07 | Daejeon Hana Citizen South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 2 | D |
| 05/07 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 4 | D |
| 17/05 | FC Anyang South Korea K League 1 |
0-1 | 1-2 | 5 | 4 | L |
| 13/05 | Ulsan HD South Korea K League 1 |
0-2 | 1-2 | 7 | 1 | L |
| 09/05 | FC Seoul South Korea K League 1 |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 05/05 | Bucheon South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 02/05 | Jeonbuk Motors South Korea K League 1 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 8 | 2 | L |
| 25/04 | Incheon Utd South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 5 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Gwangju FC vs Jeju United?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Jeju United win (50%). Probabilities: Gwangju FC 21%, draw 29%, Jeju United 50%.
How many goals are expected in Gwangju FC vs Jeju United?
The model expects 2.06 goals (Gwangju FC 0.75 · Jeju United 1.31), with a 56% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Gwangju FC vs Jeju United?
The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-1.