Football · South Korea K League 1 · 26/07, 12:30
Prediction: Incheon Utd vs Bucheon
Prediction summary
Expected goals
1.97Total
Incheon Utd1.34
Bucheon0.63
1X2
Incheon Utd
Draw
Bucheon
Markets
Over 1.5 goals 60%
Not both to score 54%
Most likely score
1-0
Recent form · 10 last
Incheon Utd
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
Bucheon
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Incheon Utd
3–1–1
Bucheon
(5 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Incheon Utd 1510 · Bucheon 1469
| Incheon Utd | Draw | Bucheon | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 53% | 31% | 16% |
| Market | 55% | 27% | 18% |
Estimated total (ours)
1.97 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · -0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 63%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Incheon Utd (rating 1510 vs 1469).
- H2H favours Incheon Utd: 3-1-1.
- Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Incheon Utd | Bucheon | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.1 / 0.5 | 0.7 / 1.3 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.4 | 0.1 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 0/60/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 4.3 | 1.3 / 3.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.7 / 0.1 | 4.5 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Incheon Utd 3–1–1 Bucheon
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/04/26 South Korea K League 1 | Bucheon | 2-2 HT 0-2 | Incheon Utd |
| 07/09/25 South Korea K League 2 | Bucheon | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Incheon Utd |
| 08/06/25 South Korea K League 2 | Incheon Utd | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Bucheon |
| 26/04/25 South Korea K League 2 | Bucheon | 1-3 HT 1-3 | Incheon Utd |
| 29/04/15 South Korea Cup | Incheon Utd | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Bucheon |
Standings · South Korea K League 1
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Seoul | 18 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 31 | 13 | 39 |
| 2 | Gangwon FC | 18 | 8 | 7 | 3 | 23 | 11 | 31 |
| 3 | Jeonbuk Motors | 18 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 25 | 16 | 29 |
| 4 | Ulsan HD | 18 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 26 | 26 | 28 |
| 5 | Pohang Steelers | 18 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 19 | 16 | 28 |
| 6 | FC Anyang | 18 | 5 | 9 | 4 | 23 | 20 | 24 |
| 7 | Incheon Utd | 18 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 22 | 19 | 24 |
| 8 | Jeju United | 18 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 16 | 18 | 23 |
| 9 | Daejeon Hana Citizen | 18 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 21 | 20 | 19 |
| 10 | Bucheon | 18 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 15 | 21 | 19 |
| 11 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC | 18 | 2 | 10 | 6 | 17 | 25 | 16 |
| 12 | Gwangju FC | 18 | 1 | 6 | 11 | 9 | 42 | 9 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Incheon Utd | Bucheon |
|---|---|---|
| Ulsan HD | 2-1 W | 0-1 L |
| Jeonbuk Motors | 1-0 W | 0-0 D |
| FC Anyang | 0-1 L | 1-0 W |
| FC Seoul | 0-1 L | 1-3 L |
| Pohang Steelers | 0-1 L | 2-0 W |
| Gimcheon Sangmu FC | 3-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Daejeon Hana Citizen | 0-0 D | 2-2 D |
| Jeju United | 1-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 4 W 1 D 3 L | 2 W 3 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Incheon Utd (5 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Incheon Utd
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/07 | Ulsan HD South Korea K League 1 |
1-1 | 2-1 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 18/07 | Jeonbuk Motors South Korea K League 1 |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 12/07 | FC Anyang South Korea K League 1 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 05/07 | FC Seoul South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 16/05 | Gwangju FC South Korea K League 1 |
2-0 | 4-0 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 12/05 | Pohang Steelers South Korea K League 1 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 4 | L |
| 09/05 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC South Korea K League 1 |
2-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 05/05 | Daejeon Hana Citizen South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 1 | D |
| 02/05 | Gangwon FC South Korea K League 1 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 25/04 | Jeju United South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 5 | 5 | W |
Bucheon
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/07 | FC Seoul South Korea K League 1 |
0-1 | 1-3 | 5 | 7 | L |
| 11/07 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC South Korea K League 1 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 04/07 | Daejeon Hana Citizen South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 5 | D |
| 17/05 | Pohang Steelers South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 13/05 | Jeonbuk Motors South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 8 | D |
| 10/05 | Ulsan HD South Korea K League 1 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 1 | L |
| 05/05 | Jeju United South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 02/05 | FC Anyang South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 25/04 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC South Korea K League 1 |
0-1 | 0-2 | 1 | 7 | L |
| 21/04 | FC Seoul South Korea K League 1 |
0-2 | 0-3 | 4 | 6 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Incheon Utd vs Bucheon?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Incheon Utd win (54%). Probabilities: Incheon Utd 54%, draw 29%, Bucheon 17%.
How many goals are expected in Incheon Utd vs Bucheon?
The model expects 1.97 goals (Incheon Utd 1.34 · Bucheon 0.63), with a 58% chance of under 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Incheon Utd vs Bucheon?
The model gives a 54% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.