Football · South Korea K League 1 · 08/08, 12:30
Prediction: Bucheon vs Gwangju FC
Team pages: Bucheon · Gwangju FC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.2Total
Bucheon1.52
Gwangju FC0.68
1X2
Bucheon
Draw
Gwangju FC
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 62%
Not both to score 52%
Most likely score
1-0
Recent form · 10 last
Bucheon
3-4-3 (W-D-L)
Gwangju FC
1-4-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Bucheon
2–4
Gwangju FC
(6 last)
- Gwangju FC0-1Bucheon
- Bucheon1-2Gwangju FC
- Gwangju FC2-0Bucheon
- Bucheon2-3Gwangju FC
- Bucheon2-1Gwangju FC
- Gwangju FC2-1Bucheon
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 65%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Bucheon (rating 1505 vs 1434).
- H2H favours Gwangju FC: 4-0-2.
- Cards-heavy: 6.9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Bucheon | Gwangju FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.5 / 1.1 | 0.5 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.4 | 0.3 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/60/20% | 10/70/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.8 / 3.8 | 1.4 / 3.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.4 / 0.2 | 2.5 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Bucheon 2–0–4 Gwangju FC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/04/26 South Korea K League 1 | Gwangju FC | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Bucheon |
| 27/08/25 South Korea Cup | Bucheon | 1-2 HT 1-0 | Gwangju FC |
| 20/08/25 South Korea Cup | Gwangju FC | 2-0 HT 2-0 | Bucheon |
| 19/06/24 South Korea Cup | Bucheon | 2-3 HT 1-3 | Gwangju FC |
| 30/08/22 South Korea K League 2 | Bucheon | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Gwangju FC |
| 05/07/22 South Korea K League 2 | Gwangju FC | 2-1 HT 2-0 | Bucheon |
Standings · South Korea K League 1
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Seoul | 21 | 13 | 4 | 4 | 35 | 17 | 43 |
| 2 | Ulsan HD | 21 | 10 | 4 | 7 | 33 | 30 | 34 |
| 3 | Jeonbuk Motors | 21 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 27 | 16 | 34 |
| 4 | Gangwon FC | 21 | 8 | 8 | 5 | 25 | 17 | 32 |
| 5 | FC Anyang | 21 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 29 | 26 | 30 |
| 6 | Incheon Utd | 21 | 8 | 5 | 8 | 28 | 24 | 29 |
| 7 | Jeju SK | 21 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 22 | 23 | 28 |
| 8 | Pohang Steelers | 21 | 8 | 4 | 9 | 20 | 22 | 28 |
| 9 | Daejeon Hana Citizen | 21 | 5 | 8 | 8 | 25 | 23 | 23 |
| 10 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC | 21 | 4 | 11 | 6 | 22 | 28 | 23 |
| 11 | Bucheon | 21 | 5 | 8 | 8 | 21 | 25 | 23 |
| 12 | Gwangju FC | 21 | 1 | 7 | 13 | 11 | 47 | 10 |
Common opponents 8 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Bucheon | Gwangju FC |
|---|---|---|
| Gangwon FC | 3-0 W | 0-0 D |
| Incheon Utd | 1-1 D | 0-4 L |
| FC Anyang | 2-3 L | 1-1 D |
| FC Seoul | 1-3 L | 0-1 L |
| Gimcheon Sangmu FC | 1-1 D | 1-1 D |
| Daejeon Hana Citizen | 2-2 D | 0-2 L |
| Pohang Steelers | 2-0 W | 0-3 L |
| Ulsan HD | 0-1 L | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 2 W 3 D 3 L | 0 W 4 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Bucheon (4 of 8 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Bucheon
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | Gangwon FC South Korea K League 1 |
1-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 6 | W |
| 29/07 | Paju Frontier FC South Korea Cup |
0-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 26/07 | Incheon Utd South Korea K League 1 |
1-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 6 | D |
| 22/07 | FC Anyang South Korea K League 1 |
1-1 | 2-3 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 19/07 | FC Seoul South Korea K League 1 |
0-1 | 1-3 | 5 | 7 | L |
| 11/07 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC South Korea K League 1 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 04/07 | Daejeon Hana Citizen South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 2-2 | 1 | 5 | D |
| 17/05 | Pohang Steelers South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 13/05 | Jeonbuk Motors South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 8 | D |
| 10/05 | Ulsan HD South Korea K League 1 |
0-1 | 0-1 | 7 | 1 | L |
Gwangju FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/08 | Daejeon Hana Citizen South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 0-2 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 29/07 | Cheonan City South Korea Cup |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 26/07 | Jeju United South Korea K League 1 |
1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 22/07 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC South Korea K League 1 |
1-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 1 | D |
| 19/07 | FC Anyang South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 3 | D |
| 11/07 | Pohang Steelers South Korea K League 1 |
0-1 | 0-3 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 05/07 | Ulsan HD South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 1 | D |
| 16/05 | Incheon Utd South Korea K League 1 |
0-2 | 0-4 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 12/05 | FC Seoul South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 09/05 | Gangwon FC South Korea K League 1 |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 4 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Bucheon vs Gwangju FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Bucheon win (56%). Probabilities: Bucheon 56%, draw 28%, Gwangju FC 15%.
How many goals are expected in Bucheon vs Gwangju FC?
The model expects 2.2 goals (Bucheon 1.52 · Gwangju FC 0.68), with a 52% chance of over 2 goals.
Will both teams score in Bucheon vs Gwangju FC?
The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.