Football · South Korea K League 1 · 30/08, 12:30

Prediction: Incheon Utd vs Jeonbuk Motors

Team pages: Incheon Utd · Jeonbuk Motors

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.15Total

Incheon Utd1.04

Jeonbuk Motors1.11

1X2

33% 31% 36%

Incheon Utd Draw Jeonbuk Motors

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1 15%

Recent form · 10 last

Incheon Utd 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LWLLWWDDDW

Jeonbuk Motors 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LWLDWDLLWD

Head-to-head

Incheon Utd 3–2–1 Jeonbuk Motors (6 last)

Incheon Utd1-0Jeonbuk Motors
Jeonbuk Motors1-2Incheon Utd
Jeonbuk Motors0-0Incheon Utd
Incheon Utd0-1Jeonbuk Motors
Jeonbuk Motors2-2Incheon Utd
Incheon Utd3-0Jeonbuk Motors

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Incheon Utd 1516 · Jeonbuk Motors 1483

	Incheon Utd	Draw	Jeonbuk Motors
Our model	32%	32%	36%
Market	34%	29%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 2.15 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Incheon Utd: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Incheon Utd	Jeonbuk Motors
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 0.9	1 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.6	0.2 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.1	2.2 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.1	3.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.70

X3.10

22.45

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.00

2 (0)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.95

Under 2.251.85

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 21:48

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	2.45 → 2.45	Bet365 2.45

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.1%

Time*	1	X	2
21:26 +22’	2.70	3.10	2.45

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Incheon Utd 3–2–1 Jeonbuk Motors

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/07/26 South Korea K League 1	Incheon Utd	1-0 HT 1-0	Jeonbuk Motors
21/04/26 South Korea K League 1	Jeonbuk Motors	1-2 HT 1-1	Incheon Utd
02/11/24 South Korea K League 1	Jeonbuk Motors	0-0 HT 0-0	Incheon Utd
24/08/24 South Korea K League 1	Incheon Utd	0-1 HT 0-1	Jeonbuk Motors
16/06/24 South Korea K League 1	Jeonbuk Motors	2-2 HT 1-0	Incheon Utd
01/05/24 South Korea K League 1	Incheon Utd	3-0 HT 0-0	Jeonbuk Motors

Standings · South Korea K League 1

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	FC Seoul	24	15	5	4	46	19	50
2	Ulsan HD	24	11	4	9	37	34	37
3	Jeonbuk Motors	24	10	7	7	31	22	37
4	Gangwon FC	23	9	8	6	28	22	35
5	Jeju SK	24	9	8	7	27	24	35
6	Incheon Utd	23	9	6	8	30	25	33
7	Pohang Steelers	24	9	4	11	22	28	31
8	FC Anyang	24	7	9	8	30	37	30
9	Bucheon	24	7	9	8	27	27	30
10	Daejeon Hana Citizen	24	7	8	9	32	28	29
11	Gimcheon Sangmu FC	24	4	14	6	23	29	26
12	Gwangju FC	24	1	8	15	12	50	11

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Incheon Utd	Jeonbuk Motors
Gimcheon Sangmu FC	1-1 D	0-0 D
Jeju SK	3-3 D	1-3 L
Bucheon	1-1 D	2-3 L
Ulsan HD	2-1 W	1-0 W
FC Seoul	0-1 L	0-0 D
Pohang Steelers	0-1 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 2 L	2 W 2 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Incheon Utd

LWLLWWDDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Gwangju FC South Korea K League 1	0-0	1-0	3	3	W
16/08	Gimcheon Sangmu FC South Korea K League 1	0-0	1-1	1	5	D
02/08	Jeju SK South Korea K League 1	2-2	3-3	5	5	D
26/07	Bucheon South Korea K League 1	0-1	1-1	8	6	D
21/07	Ulsan HD South Korea K League 1	1-1	2-1	2	5	W
18/07	Jeonbuk Motors South Korea K League 1	1-0	1-0	2	1	W
12/07	FC Anyang South Korea K League 1	0-1	0-1	5	5	L
05/07	FC Seoul South Korea K League 1	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
16/05	Gwangju FC South Korea K League 1	2-0	4-0	5	2	W
12/05	Pohang Steelers South Korea K League 1	0-1	0-1	7	4	L

Jeonbuk Motors

LWLDWDLLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/08	Gimcheon Sangmu FC South Korea K League 1	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
22/08	Ulsan HD South Korea K League 1	0-0	1-0	1	7	W
16/08	Bucheon South Korea K League 1	0-2	2-3	10	5	L
08/08	Jeju SK South Korea K League 1	0-1	1-3	11	3	L
01/08	FC Seoul South Korea K League 1	0-0	0-0	4	4	D
25/07	Pohang Steelers South Korea K League 1	1-0	2-0	1	2	W
21/07	Daejeon Hana Citizen South Korea K League 1	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
18/07	Incheon Utd South Korea K League 1	0-1	0-1	4	1	L
11/07	Ulsan HD South Korea K League 1	1-0	3-1	5	5	W
04/07	Gangwon FC South Korea K League 1	0-1	1-2	1	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Incheon Utd vs Jeonbuk Motors?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Jeonbuk Motors win (36%). Probabilities: Incheon Utd 33%, draw 31%, Jeonbuk Motors 36%.

How many goals are expected in Incheon Utd vs Jeonbuk Motors?

The model expects 2.15 goals (Incheon Utd 1.04 · Jeonbuk Motors 1.11), with a 54% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Incheon Utd vs Jeonbuk Motors?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.